There was a time when the Mid-American was a feared conference, and teams from the nation’s power leagues knew they were in for a battle when facing MAC clubs. That era seems like long ago, as the upsets, and near-misses for that matter, seem fewer and far between these days. Even as good as Ball State was a year ago, it still floundered when it mattered most. Now for 2009, the Cardinals are in rebuilding mode and defending conference championship game winner Buffalo figures to be the only team to command any respect on a national scale. There are a lot of returning starters though, with each team bringing back at least 11, so perhaps this is the year the downward trend reverself itself.
Buffalo’s Turner Gill has transformed the Bulls from one of college football’s laughingstocks into one of the MAC’s blue-chip stocks. The Bulls (8-6) won the MAC title, earning the school’s first-ever bowl bid. And they’re not a one-year wonder as six starters return on offense, led by first-team all-league running back James Starks (1,333 yards, 16 scores) and wideout Naaman Roosevelt (104 catches for 1,402 yards and 13 scores), and nine starters are back on defense, led by All-MAC safeties Davonte Shannon and Mike Newton. The biggest surprise is no one hired Gill away from Buffalo. While Gill remained, five of the league’s 13 programs will have new sideline bosses as Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, Toledo and Miami (Ohio) fired their coaches and Ball State’s Brady Hoke made what looks like a lateral move-—sunny weather aside-—to San Diego State, a program that hasn’t experienced a winning season since 1998. Can anyone push Buffalo for the MAC East crown? Sure, Temple (5-7) appears in the midst of authoring a Buffalo-like, rags-to-riches tale. The Owls’ defense, with nine returning starters, will keep them in games, but Temple needs either sophomore quarterback Chester Stewart or junior signal-caller Vaughan Charlton to make enough fourth-quarter plays to win games. The MAC West looks like a two-horse race between the programs with the league’s two finest quarterbacks, Western Michigan pocket passer Tim Hiller (3,725 yards, 36 touchdowns) and Central Michigan run-pass threat Dan LeFevour (2,784 yards, 21 touchdown passes, six rushing scores). Mid-American Conference fans have already circled Oct. 17 because Hiller and LeFevour figure to put on quite a head-to-head show that day.
2009 PREDICTED FINISH
MAC East Division
1. Buffalo
2. Temple
3. Bowling Green
4. Ohio
5. Akron
6. Miami (Ohio)
7. Kent State
MAC West Division
1. Western Michigan
2. Central Michigan
3. Northern Illinois
4. Ball State
5. Toledo
6. Eastern Michigan
EAST DIVISION
AKRON ZIPS
Where: Akron, OH
Head Coach: J.D. Brookhart, 6th year
2008 Record: 5-7 SU, 6-5 ATS
Facility: InfoCision Stadium
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 3-3-5 - Starters Returning: 6
Lettermen Returning: 45
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -1.3 (#74 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -3.3 (#80 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 27 (#97 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 32.83 (#103 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 5-7, 14-22 (39%)
Overall ATS: 6-5, 15-19 (44%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 7-7 (50%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-2, 8-12 (40%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-5, 7-15 (32%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-2, 6-8 (43%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-3, 9-10 (47%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 30 (36) - 31.3 (96)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 396.7 (39) - 397.6 (91)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.67 (44) - 5.55 (76)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.56 (38) - 4.46 (92)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.88 (64) - 7.09 (76)
Turnover Differential: +0.5 (28)
2009 OUTLOOK: Since winning the Mid-American Conference title in 2005, Akron has failed to have a winning campaign, so the seat is getting hotter and hotter for sixth-year head coach J.D. Brookhart. But the addition of a couple of veterans to the coaching staff, a number of talented players returning on offense and the fact that the Zips are moving to a new stadium has brought some optimism to the program.
OFFENSE: Former Division I-A head coaches Shane Montgomery (offensive coordinator) and Walt Harris (quarterbacks coach) were brought in to improve an Akron offense that could be one of the better units in the conference if healthy. Nine starters return, including two All-MAC third-team wide receivers in seniors Deryn Bowser and Andre Jones. But both were on the sidelines for the spring game nursing injuries. Bowser, who led the team with 64 receptions for 785 yards and four touchdowns, was out with a head injury, while Jones, who caught 47 passes for 678 yards and seven touchdowns, was rehabbing a knee injury. Redshirt freshman Rhyne Landrach will be the tight end. The player who should benefit most from the new coaches will be quarterback Chris Jacquemain. The 6-2, 215-pound senior is coming off a decent campaign in which he completed 231 of 399 passes for 2,748 yards, 20 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. The backfield loses a All-MAC secondteamer and 1,000-yard rusher in Dennis Kennedy, and taking over the primary back role will be senior Alex Allen, who had 152 yards and three touchdowns in three games as a backup but was also on the mend during spring drills with a hip injury. Louisville transfer Dale Martin could be a factor if he can recover from an Achilles’ tendon injury. The Zips will boast a veteran offensive line that features four returning starters. Leading the way are seniors Zach Anderson (right guard) and Ellliot Bates (center).
DEFENSE: Brookhart runs a 3-3-5 defense that wasn’t very successful last season as it ranked 10th in the MAC with 397.6 yards allowed per game. So the coach will employ multiple looks this season to become less predictable. The leadership of the unit is expected to come from junior linebacker Mike Thomas, the team’s top returning tackler (81 stops, 8.5 for loss). Sophomore Aaron Williams and Sean Fobbs round out the linebacker corps and will need to step up their play in their larger roles. The defensive line features the lone returning honors recipient in All-MAC thirdteam end Almondo Sewell, who will be counted on to up his sack count after recording just two among his 62 tackles. Senior nose guard Ryan Bain is expected to recover from the back injury that kept him out of the spring game. Three starters return to the secondary, led by senior cornerback Miguel Graham, who led the team with three interceptions and eight passes broken up, to go along with 70 tackles. Senior Wayne Cobham (63 stops) moves from rover to free safety, while junior Jalil Carter goes from free to strong safety. Junior Shawn Lemon, who started five games along the defensive line last year, will try his hand at rover, while the coaching staff has high hopes for sophomore cornerback Manley Waller.
PREDICTION: The schedule calls for some tough games at home for the Zips, so it will be interesting to see if the team ups its game when playing in its new digs. If the offensive stars are at 100 percent in the fall, Akron could boast one of the more dynamic units in the conference. A .500 record could be in the offing, but a MAC division title is out of the question.
BOWLING GREEN FALCONS
Where: Bowling Green, OH
Head Coach: Dave Clawson, 1st year
2008 Record: 6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS
Facility: Perry Stadium
Offense: One Back - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 4
Lettermen Returning: 39
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +4.5 (#47 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +2.7 (#53 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 36 (#70 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 35.83 (#87 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 6-6, 18-19 (49%)
Overall ATS: 8-4, 19-17 (53%)
at Home ATS: 1-4, 3-11 (21%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 7-0, 16-6 (73%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 12-12 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-4, 8-12 (40%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-0, 11-5 (69%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 27.7 (44) - 23.2 (49)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 359.8 (60) - 343.4 (53)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.28 (69) - 5.05 (46)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.95 (69) - 4.22 (82)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.59 (76) - 6.13 (26)
Turnover Differential: +0 (62)
2009 OUTLOOK: Despite compiling a 44-30 record and leading Bowling Green to three bowl games in six years, Gregg Brandon was not retained as head coach of the Falcons. Former Tennessee offensive coordinator Dave Clawson takes over and inherits a team that returns 11 starters but just one All-MAC honoree.
OFFENSE: Under Brandon, the Falcons’ offense featured five receivers and an empty backfield. That will change as Clawson expects to include a fullback and tight end in his scheme. That means senior Tyler Sheehan will need to learn a new system. An All-MAC third-team honoree as a sophomore, Sheehan comes off a solid campaign in which he completed 267 of 400 passes for 2,610 yards, 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also recorded a team-leading seven rushing touchdowns. The running game figures to have a larger role after averaging just 134 yards per game, and the Falcons return three of their top four rushers, with the only loss being leading ground-gainer Anthony Turner. Senior Chris Bullock (384 yards, two touchdowns), junior Willie Geter (301 yards) and sophomore Jason Rice will vie for playing time in the backfield. With the departure of leading receiver Corey Partridge, Freddie Barnes will likely take over as Sheehan’s go-to guy. The fifthyear senior led the team with 82 catches in 2007, but his ‘08 campaign was cut short due to several injuries. However, in nine games he caught 40 passes for 355 yards. Seniors Tyrone Pronty (29 catches) and Chris Wright (22) will also play major roles. Senior tight end Jimmy Scheidler will get more looks in Clawson’s attack after catching just 17 passes for 150 yards, although he did record a team-high seven touchdown receptions. The line returns three starters—left tackle Brady Minturn, left guard Shane Steffy and center Ben Bojicic—but the right side will have a new look. Five line prospects were redshirted last season and will have a shot at the open starting positions.
DEFENSE: The Falcons boasted the league’s second-best defense (343.4 yards per game) but most of the starters are gone, with the best being All-MAC first-team end Diyral Briggs. The line, in fact, returns just one starter, senior tackle Mike Ream, and his numbers (27 tackles, three for loss) aren’t earth-shattering. Junior Angelo Magnone and sophomore Kevin Alvarado are expected to take on larger roles up front. Senior Jerett Sanderson (68 tackles, two interceptions, eight pass breakups) is the lone returning starter to the linebacker corps. Senior Cody Basler inherits the middle spot after recording 42 stops and earning MAC Defensive Player of the Week honors after recording an interception and a fumble recovery against Wyoming. The Falcons return two talented senior safeties in P.J. Mahone, who led the team with 95 tackles and also recorded three interceptions, and Jahmal Brown, who had 83 stops and seven pass breakups. Senior Roger Williams is the only cornerback to see any action. The status of junior Robert Lorenzi, who had a strong junior-college career (14 interceptions at Laney College) before transferring to Bowling Green, is still a question mark as the cornerback missed spring drills recovering from a broken leg that cost him all of last season.
PREDICTION: Save for Briggs, Bowling Green didn’t have any superstars, yet still finished with a .500 mark. The Falcons still don’t have many all-conference types on the roster, but if they can pick up Clawson’s new schemes from the get-go, and some new faces step up on defense, a winning record is not out of the question.
BUFFALO BULLS
Where: Buffalo, NY
Head Coach: Turner Gill, 4th year
2008 Record: 8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS
Facility: UB Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 5
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 50
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +2.1 (#57 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +2.8 (#51 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 31 (#86 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 31.75 (#108 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 8-6, 15-23 (39%)
Overall ATS: 9-5, 23-14 (62%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 7-8 (47%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 7-1, 16-6 (73%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-3, 17-8 (68%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-4, 3-5 (38%)
as Underdog ATS: 7-1, 19-9 (68%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 30.3 (34) - 28.2 (78)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 370.3 (53) - 408.2 (95)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.41 (63) - 5.95 (99)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.82 (76) - 4.88 (100)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.05 (55) - 7.08 (75)
Turnover Differential: +1.43 (3)
2009 OUTLOOK: Buffalo comes off a historic season for the program. The Bulls earned their first bowl berth in school history by winning the MAC East title (for the second year in a row) and then defeating previously unbeaten Ball State in the conference title game. But with their success comes the fact that head coach Turner Gill could move on to greener pastures soon, as he is on many schools’ short lists if head coaching vacancies open up.
OFFENSE: The MAC’s second-ranked scoring offense (30.3 yards per game) returns five starters, but two of them were all-conference first-team selections. The running game is in the capable hands (and legs) of senior James Starks, who became the first Bull to rush for 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons when he ran for 1,333 yards despite missing three full games to injury. He scored 17 times on the ground, while also catching 52 passes for 361 yards and a touchdown. Paving the way for Starks at fullback will be either junior Ike Nduka or senior Lawrence Rolle. Buffalo is equally talented at wide receiver, where the senior combo of All-MAC firstteamer Naaman Roosevelt, who became the first Bull to catch 100 passes in a season (104 for 1,402 yards and 13 touchdowns), and Brett Hamlin (38 catches, 459 yards, five touchdowns) figure to be the targets for a bulk of the passes. Senior tight end Jesse Rack (21 catches, 205 yards) should also get his fair share of looks from the quarterback. But just who will be throwing the ball may not be decided until the fall. Sophomore Zack Maynard, who backed up Drew Willy last year, is the most experienced quarterback on the roster, while Jerry Davis, who redshirted, figures to give him the strongest competition for the starting spot. The offensive line returns just two starters in left guard Peter Bittner and right tackle Andrew West, and loses All-MAC secondteam guard Jeff Niedermier.
DEFENSE: The 2008 edition of the Buffalo stop unit was a young one, so it wasn’t too much of a surprise that the unit ranked 11th in the conference in total defense, allowing 408.2 yards per game. But eight starters are back with more experience and the only unit that will have a new look will be the defensive line, where the only returning starter is junior tackle Anel Montanez. Senior tackle Dane Robinson figures to start after suffering through an injury-plagued campaign. The linebacker corps returns intact and is led by All-MAC third-teamer Justin Winters, who comes off a sophomore season in which he led the team with 125 tackles and four forced fumbles. Senior Raphael Akobundu, junior Tom Drewes and sophomore Scott Pettigrew all started significant games last year. The jewel of the Buffalo defense is the secondary, where all four players are honors candidates. Senior Mike Newton and junior Davonte Shannon, who combined for 233 tackles, are arguably the best safety tandem in the conference, while cornerbacks Domonic Cook, Kendric Hawkins (who is healthy after an injury-filled 2008) and Josh Thomas are all capable of big plays when on the field.
PREDICTION: Starks is a force out of the backfield, but he can’t do it alone. Willy had 25 touchdown passes, so whoever replaces him will be depended upon to perform as well. The defense figures to be better, so the offense may not have to do as much. A thirdstraight MAC East title is absolutely within reach and another bowl berth certainly is not out of the question even if the Bulls don’t win the MAC title game.
KENT STATE GOLDEN FLASHES
Where: Kent, OH
Head Coach: Doug Martin, 6th year
2008 Record: 4-8 SU, 3-6 ATS
Facility: Dix Stadium
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 3-4 - Starters Returning: 7
Lettermen Returning: 59
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -6 (#91 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -7.4 (#96 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 26 (#101 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 32.00 (#105 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 4-8, 13-23 (36%)
Overall ATS: 3-6, 11-21 (34%)
at Home ATS: 1-3, 3-10 (23%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-3, 8-11 (42%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-3, 8-14 (36%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-1, 3-10 (23%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-5, 8-10 (44%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 25.7 (57) - 31.7 (99)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 400.3 (35) - 395.2 (87)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.81 (33) - 5.88 (94)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 5.25 (11) - 4.53 (95)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.79 (70) - 7.78 (102)
Turnover Differential: -0.25 (80)
2009 OUTLOOK: There wasn’t much to cheer about at Kent State, as it went 4-8 overall and 3-5 within the Mid-American Conference. But a seasonending win over eventual conference champion Buffalo enabled the Golden Flashes to head to the offseason on a high note. A majority of last year’s starters return for head coach Doug Martin, but there is a huge hole to fill after the departure of quarterback Julian Edelman.
OFFENSE: The Golden Flashes led the conference in rushing (ranked 11th in the country with 230.6 yards per game) and a major reason for that success came from Edelman, who led the team with 1,370 rushing yards, while in the process setting the school-record for single- season total yards (3,190). Edelman was healthy, which enabled Kent State to redshirt his likely heir apparent, sophomore Giorgio Morgan, who started the first two games of the 2007 campaign before suffering a season- ending leg injury and is a better passer than Edelman. Edelman’s departure also means the running backs will be expected to up their game. The Golden Flashes have a quality starter in All-MAC second-teamer Eugene Jarvis (801 yards, nine touchdowns). Junior Alan Vanderink moves from H-back, where he started five games, to provide depth at tailback. Leading receiver Shawn Bayes is gone, leaving Jarvis (25 catches) with the most receptions among returnees. Eight players are listed on the depth chart at wideout, and they combined to catch 10 fewer passes than Bayes did. Sophomore flanker Kendrick Pressley is back after a broken leg cost him all but two games. Freshman Tyshon Goode had an impressive spring session and could be a receiver Morgan looks to for big plays. Senior Jameson Konz moves to H-back from tight end and will have a bigger role in the offense after seeing action in just one game because of an ankle injury, while junior Johnathan Simpson could be in for a breakout season at the tight end spot. Four starters return along the offensive line (All-MAC second-team tackle Augustus Parris is the only loss), with guard Michael Fay, center Chris Anzevino and tackle Pat Reedy all coming off campaigns in which they started every game.
DEFENSE: Improvement is certainly warranted on this side of scrimmage after the Golden Flashes ranked 98th in the nation in scoring defense (31.7 points per game). Unit leader and two-time All-MAC honoree Derek Burrell is gone, and junior free safety Brian Lainhart will likely take over the alpha dog role. The All-MAC second-teamer led the conference with six interceptions and finished second on the team with 106 tackles. He’ll once again be joined in the secondary by strong safety Dan Hartman and cornerback Danny Sadler. Junior Cobrani Mixon (73 tackles), a former Michigan transfer, is the only starting linebacker to return. Senior Antony Mirando and junior Dorian Wood are penciled in to start on the outside, and will have the tough task of replacing veterans Burrell and Cedrick Maxwell. Senior end Kevin Hogan, who led the team with five sacks, leads an experienced line. Seniors Sam Frist and Aaron Hull return at nose tackle and tackle, respectively.
PREDICTION: Morgan will give the Golden Flashes a different look and it will be up to the wide receiver corps to really step up its game after depending on Edelman to handle things mostly with his feet. Even though Kent State returns a bulk of its starters, the losses on both sides of the ball are too significant to think that the record will improve.
MIAMI (OHIO) REDHAWKS
Where: Oxford, OH
Head Coach: Michael Haywood, 1st year
2008 Record: 2-10 SU, 4-7 ATS
Facility: Yager Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 5
Lettermen Returning: 45
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -14.3 (#111 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -16.1 (#113 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 19 (#114 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 37.83 (#73 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 2-10, 10-27 (27%)
Overall ATS: 4-7, 14-21 (40%)
at Home ATS: 1-4, 4-10 (29%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 10-11 (48%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 9-14 (39%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-3, 1-8 (11%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-4, 13-12 (52%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 18.4 (107) - 32.7 (103)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 325.2 (90) - 395.5 (89)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.66 (101) - 6.28 (109)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.42 (95) - 5.45 (113)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 5.67 (102) - 7.56 (98)
Turnover Differential: -1 (113)
2009 OUTLOOK: Following a 2-10 season, in which it averaged just 18.4 points per game to rank 107th in the nation, Shane Montgomery resigned as head coach after four seasons. Former Notre Dame offensive coordinator Michael Haywood takes over and will attempt to turn around a once-elite team in the Mid-American Conference that has lost 27 of its last 37 contests. Haywood will have a very young team to work with. Only 11 of the 82 players who attended spring drills were seniors.
OFFENSE: Eight starters return to an offense that ranked 12th in the conference with 326 yards per game. Haywood will run a prostyle offense, with multiple formations. The running game needs to show improvement after averaging just 108.1 yards per contest. Junior Thomas Merriweather, the team’s leading rusher, is back after gaining 547 yards on 140 carries and scoring four touchdowns. Sophomore J.R. Taylor and senior Andre Bratton will also get carries. Senior Daniel Raudabaugh is expected to retain the starting quarterback spot, but he wasn’t very good, completing 201 of 343 passes for 1,960 yards, eight touchdowns and nine interceptions. As a result, redshirt freshman Zac Dysert, a former Ohio High School Player of the Year, could step in. The team’s top four pass catchers are back. Leading the way is junior Jamal Rogers, who caught 41 balls for 353 yards. Junior Chris Givens and senior Dustin Woods both caught 35 passes, but of the top three receivers, Givens was the only one to reach the end zone, with seven touchdowns. A new tight end will have to emerge after the departure of both Jake O’Connell and Tom Crabtree. The offensive line returns just two starters—sophomore Brandon Brooks and junior Nate Williams.
DEFENSE: Five starters return to a defense that was abysmal against the run, allowing 208.3 yards per contest, while giving up a whopping 32.7 points per game. Two huge holes have been left by the departure of All-MAC first-team linebackers Clayton Mullins and Joey Hudson. Senior Caleb Bostic is the lone returnee from the unit and is also the team’s top returning tackler (40 stops). Sophomore Jerrell Wedge had an impressive spring session and should win one of the starting jobs. Redshirt freshman Luke Kelly also excelled in the spring. The secondary will be the most experienced section of the defense, with three returning starters. Junior free safety Ben Bennett (30 tackles, one interception) is the leader of the group and he had an outstanding spring game with eight stops and one pass broken up. Junior Wendell Brunson and senior Jeff Thompson are three-year letterwinners at cornerback. Junior Jordan Gafford will be back at strong safety after missing last season with a leg injury. Senior tackle Mark Paun, who recorded just nine tackles, is the lone returning starter along the defensive line. But a couple of potential starters really shined during the spring game. Redshirt freshman end Will Diaz recorded six tackles, two sacks and two pass breakups in the contest and senior end Martin Channels had 3.5 tackles for loss.
PREDICTION: To call this season a rebuilding year for Miami (Ohio) would be an understatement. With a new coaching staff, a new system and a ton of new players in the mix, it looks like another long campaign in Oxford. An improvement over last year’s record would be a surprise.
OHIO BOBCATS
Where: Athens, OH
Head Coach: Frank Solich, 5th year
2008 Record: 4-8 SU, 6-4 ATS
Facility: Peden Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 7
Lettermen Returning: 83
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -3.2 (#82 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -5.6 (#88 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 28 (#94 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 31.17 (#111 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 4-8, 19-19 (50%)
Overall ATS: 6-4, 20-13 (61%)
at Home ATS: 1-3, 8-5 (62%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-1, 12-8 (60%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-4, 13-11 (54%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-1, 6-5 (55%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-3, 13-8 (62%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 24.1 (77) - 27.3 (71)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 361.4 (58) - 348.6 (54)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.57 (48) - 5.11 (49)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.93 (72) - 4.08 (73)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.24 (42) - 6.44 (43)
Turnover Differential: -1.08 (114)
2009 OUTLOOK: Ohio comes off a tough campaign in which it battled numerous injuries, plus problems in the red zone and with turnovers that put it behind the eight ball in most games. The Bobcats ranked 110th in the country in turnover margin (-12), but did have one bright spot when it nearly upset Ohio State in early September. Head coach Frank Solich has a very experienced team returning, including some potential all-conference candidates.
OFFENSE: Senior Boo Jackson figures to enter the season as the starting quarterback after taking over the job in the third game of 2008 only to set school records for passing yards (2,355), touchdown passes (19) and total offense (2,688 yards). He replaced then-junior Theo Scott, who suffered a broken collarbone against Ohio State and was lost for the season. Scott should be healthy and gives Solich another option. The Bobcats are also set at running back with the combo of senior Chris Garrett and sophomore Donte Harden. Garrett led the squad with 529 rushing yards and five touchdowns, while Harden comes off a redshirt freshman campaign in which he amassed 454 yards and two scores in seven games before going down with a knee injury. The team’s top pair of receivers return in senior Taylor Price (51 catches, 694 yards, five touchdowns) and junior LaVon Brazil (34, 384, 1), but Ohio losses two effective tight ends in two-time All-MAC honoree Andrew Mooney and David Carter, who each hauled in three touchdown passes last year. Redshirt freshman Jordan Thompson may have won the starting nod with a solid spring. Three veterans are gone from the line, including All-MAC honoree Josh Leuck, and the group was hit hard by injuries in the spring, so the unit could struggle early on. Tackles A.J. Strum and Cole Bunner and guard Michael Philibin should be healthy in the fall, but guard Gary Schussler could be lost for the season with a foot injury.
DEFENSE: Ohio’s defense was one of the better units in the conference as far as giving up yardage (348.6 yards per game), but it seemed to be on the field all the time thanks to a league-worst 31 turnovers. With seven starters back, the defense will be on the rise. The linebacker corps should be the strength of the unit, with the return of junior Noah Keller, an All-MAC second-team selection who led the squad with 104 tackles, and senior Lee Renfro (83 tackles, 6.5 for loss). Fifth-year senior Errik Ejike and sophomore Jay Edwards will vie for a starting spot. The line takes a huge hit with the departure of tackle Jameson Hartke, the team’s best pass rusher. Former walk-on A.J. Oxley is back, along with junior Ernie Hodge. Ends Kris Luchsinger, Curtis Meyers and Conor Reilly should all get playing time. The secondary lost talented veterans in cornerback Mark Parson and strong safety Michael Mitchell, who combined for 108 tackles and five interceptions. Senior free safety Steven Jackson comes off an All-MAC thirdteam campaign (71 tackles, two interceptions) but sat out the spring session recovering from offseason groin surgery. Senior cornerback Thad Turner led the squad with six passes broken up, while junior cornerback Julian Posey returns from a leg injury that cost him most of last season.
PREDICTION: It won’t be easy to make much headway in the tough MAC East Division, especially if the Bobcats continue to shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties (they averaged 59 penalty yards per game). The health of the offensive line will be a major factor, because if Jackson gets protection, he can be a game-changer. A one- or two-game improvement in the record is certainly doable.
TEMPLE OWLS
Where: Philadelphia, PA
Head Coach: Al Golden, 4th year
2008 Record: 5-7 SU, 7-4 ATS
Facility: Lincoln Financial Field
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 9
Lettermen Returning: 51
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +0.3 (#61 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +0 (#66 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 32 (#84 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 30.83 (#117 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 5-7, 10-26 (28%)
Overall ATS: 7-4, 20-14 (59%)
at Home ATS: 3-1, 10-4 (71%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-3, 10-10 (50%)
vs. Conference ATS: 4-3, 10-6 (63%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-1, 2-2 (50%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-3, 17-12 (59%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 23.4 (82) - 23.1 (48)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 298.1 (107) - 388 (82)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.76 (97) - 5.18 (55)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 2.77 (115) - 4.07 (71)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.18 (45) - 6.5 (45)
Turnover Differential: +0 (64)
2009 OUTLOOK: With five victories, Temple recorded its best win total in 18 years, but the record could have been even better had the Owls not lost three contests on the final play of the game. There’s also plenty of optimism on campus due to the program’s 5-2 mark in the last seven games after dropping its first five contests. Head coach Al Golden, entering his fourth campaign in charge, has his squad thinking Mid-American Conference East Division title for the first time. With 17 starters returning, the Owls possess one of the most experienced teams in the league.
OFFENSE: Eight starters return on offense, with the toughest loss being three-year starting quarterback Adam DiMichele, who ranked second in the MAC and 19th in the country in pass efficiency. But there is starting experience behind center remaining on the roster. Junior Vaughn Charlton, who redshirted in 2008, started the last four contests of ‘07 and finished with 808 yards and three touchdowns while completing 78 of 137 passes. Sophomore Chester Stewart started three games as a redshirt freshman, going 53 of 106 for 524 yards and four touchdowns. Charlton had a rough spring, throwing three interceptions, so Stewart could find himself with a better shot at the starting job. Whoever the starting signal-caller will be will no longer have leading receiver and All- MAC third-teamer Bruce Francis (13 touchdowns) to throw to anymore. Seniors Jason Harper and Dy’Onne Crudup, who combined for 48 catches and four touchdowns, will have larger roles in Francis’ absence. Senior Steve Maneri returns at tight end, but may be pushed by sophomore Matt Balasavage. The sophomore tandem of Kee-ayre Griffin (team-leading 394 rushing yards) and Joe Jones (275) will likely share the load in the backfield, with linebacker-turned-fullback Lamar McPherson paving the way. The line is young but experienced, with six players returning with starting experience. Sophomore Wayne Tribue moves from left guard to center, with classmate John Palumbo to move into the spot he vacated. Sophomore Pat Boyle started four games at left tackle and senior Devin Tyler moves from the left side to right tackle.
DEFENSE: The strength of the stop unit, which ranked third in the conference in scoring defense (23.1 points per game), will be the line, despite the fact that the unit loses All- MAC first-team tackle Terrance Knighton and sack leader Junior Galette. Ends Brian Sanford and Adrian Robinson will need to get to the quarterback more, while junior Elisha Joseph replaces Knighton. The linebacker corps will be anchored by senior Alex Joseph (87 tackles) in the middle, and he’ll be flanked by junior Amara Kamara (voted the Most Improved Player on defense after spring drills) and senior John Haley, and they combined for 110 stops. Senior strong safety Dominique Harris, who hauled in a team-leading three interceptions, heads the secondary. Junior free safety Jaiquawn Jarrett (team-leading 88 tackles) and cornerbacks Anthony Ferla (senior) and Marlin Terrell (sophomore) round out the unit. Ferla is a two-year starter who had 45 tackles and two forced fumbles in 2007 before sitting out last season with a foot injury.
PREDICTION: Golden was forced to start extremely young squads the last few seasons and things could start to pay off this year. If he can find a quarterback he can depend on from the tandem of Charlton and Stewart, the Owls should see themselves in the division title hunt once again. And if the breaks go their way they could find themselves playing in their first MAC Championship Game.
WEST DIVISION
BALL STATE CARDINALS
Where: Muncie, IN
Head Coach: Stan Parrish, 1st year
2008 Record: 12-2 SU, 8-4 ATS
Facility: Scheumann Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 4
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 7
Lettermen Returning: 38
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +14.4 (#15 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +10.9 (#21 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 35 (#72 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 30.00 (#119 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 12-2, 24-15 (62%)
Overall ATS: 8-4, 23-12 (66%)
at Home ATS: 3-1, 8-5 (62%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-3, 15-7 (68%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 14-9 (61%)
as Favorite ATS: 7-3, 13-6 (68%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-1, 10-6 (63%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 34.9 (18) - 20.5 (29)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 442.5 (17) - 368.2 (69)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.7 (9) - 5.42 (68)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.97 (18) - 4.59 (96)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.92 (7) - 6.33 (37)
Turnover Differential: +0.36 (39)
2009 OUTLOOK: The 2008 season was one to remember for Ball State. The Cardinals finished the regular season undefeated, won their first outright Mid-American Conference West Division title and found themselves in the Top 25 for the first time in school history. Brady Hoke took advantage of that success by leaving for what he considered greener pastures by taking over the San Diego State program after Ball State lost to Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game. The bad luck continued when Stan Parrish took over and the Cardinals were crushed by Tulsa in the GMAC Bowl. It’s Parrish’s team now and he’ll have to overcome major losses on offense if Ball State is to defend its division crown.
OFFENSE: Ball State boasted five All-MAC first-teamers on an offensive unit that ranked 17th in the nation, but only one is back. Senior halfback MiQuale Lewis is the lone returnee of the quintent of stars, so he’ll be the focal point of the offense. The 5-6, 184- pound speedster finally had a healthy campaign and delivered with 1,736 yards and 22 touchdowns and also caught 35 passes. A huge question mark at quarterback means that Parrish will lean heavily on Lewis. Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year Nate Davis is gone, leaving the job to a trio of inexperienced signal-callers. Senior Tanner Justice is the only one with game experience (he completed both of his pass attempts), but redshirt freshman Kelly Page, who is a dual threat with a lively arm, could earn the starting nod. True freshman Aaron Mershman could also get a look. Sophomore Briggs Orsbon, who had 68 catches for 813 yards and five touchdowns, is the lone returning starter at wideout. Senior tight end Madaris Grant (26 catches) will have to become a primary target now that All-MAC first-team Darius Hill has moved on. Junior Myles Trempe and Daniel Ifft are penciled in at the other wideout spots. The line loses three All-MAC first-team honorees, and only junior left guard Michael Switzer is back. Sophomore Kreg Hunter moves to center from right guard, while redshirt freshmen Cameron Lowry and Steve Yoder will man the right side.
DEFENSE: A unit that allowed just 20.5 points per game returns seven starters, including MAC Freshman of the Year, strong safety Sean Baker, who ranked second on the team in tackles (94) to returning free safety, senior Alex Knipp (96), and paced the squad with six interceptions and 10 passes broken up. The tandem of Baker and Knipp, who also had two interceptions and six sacks, is the best in the MAC. They’ll be joined by two new cornerbacks—junior Koreen Burch and sophomore Torieal Gibson. The line should be the strength of the unit, with the return of all four starters. Senior end Brandon Crawford is coming off an All-MAC second-team season in which he recorded 31 tackles, eight for loss, and four sacks. He’ll be joined by junior end Robert Eddins (45 tackles, four sacks), senior tackle Drew Duffin and junior tackle Rene Perry. Junior Davyd Jones, who had 85 tackles, 12 for loss, is the lone returning starter in the linebacker corps and he moves from the middle to the weakside spot. Seniors Sam Woodworth and Travis Freeman will move up to starting roles after seeing limited action.
PREDICTION: Ball State will be hunted following its undefeated regular-season MAC campaign. Look for the Cardinals to drop down to the pack in the West Division because of the multitude of losses on offense. But dropping down to the pack doesn’t mean that Parrish can’t lead the Cards to the league title if the quarterback play pans out.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS
Where: Mount Pleasant, MI
Head Coach: Butch Jones, 3rd year
2008 Record: 8-5 SU, 6-6 ATS
Facility: Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 10
Lettermen Returning: 44
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -0.7 (#71 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -2.9 (#76 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 34 (#77 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 35.25 (#91 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 8-5, 26-15 (63%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 25-13 (66%)
at Home ATS: 2-2, 10-3 (77%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-4, 15-10 (60%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 17-7 (71%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-1, 15-5 (75%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-5, 10-8 (56%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 29.5 (38) - 30.2 (91)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 423 (23) - 421.8 (105)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.7 (39) - 6.07 (100)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.59 (91) - 4.15 (78)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.84 (23) - 7.81 (103)
Turnover Differential: +0.23 (45)
2009 OUTLOOK: Central Michigan has been to three consecutive bowl games and would become the first Mid-American Conference team to appear in four straight postseason contests if the Chippewas continue their surge under third-year head coach Butch Jones. After falling to Florida Atlantic in the Motor City Bowl, Central Michigan would like nothing better than to avenge that setback and make conference history in the process.
OFFENSE: The Chippewas boasted the MAC’s second-best offensive unit, racking up 423.5 yards per game, and most of those yards came through the air thanks to the arm of All-MAC second-team quarterback Dan LeFevour. The 6-3, 229-pound Illinois native heads into his senior campaign with 11,702 yards of total offense, good for 14th in NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision history. He comes off a junior season in which he completed 251 of 376 passes for 2,784 yards, 21 touchdowns and six interceptions. He’s also the team’s top returning rusher (592 yards). While rushing is not a priority in the Chippewas’ offense, Jones will need to find a new starter in the backfield. Sophomore Paris Cotton, an elusive speedster, and Bryan Shroeder, a power back, could share the load. But running the ball may not be a concern considering the talent LeFevour has at his disposal. Both junior Antonio Brown and senior Bryan Anderson earned first-team All- MAC honors at wide receiver after catching 93 and 63 passes, respectively, and combining for 13 touchdowns. Brown is arguably the best all-around player in the conference and became only the second player in NCAA history to earn all-conference first-team honors at three different positions in one season (receiver and kick and punt returner). Junior Kito Poblah (43 catches) will also start. Tight end doesn’t do much in the attack except block, so sophomore Rocky Weaver has been moved to tackle. He joins a unit that returns three starters, but loses All-MAC firstteam left tackle Andre Hartline.
DEFENSE: The defense is a tale of two units. It finished as the conference’s best against the run, allowing 136.5 yards per game, but the passing defense was so bad (287.2 yards per game) that it ranked 104th in the nation in total defense. Central Michigan should be very effective against the run and at getting to the quarterback (ranked 14th nationally in sacks) with the return of seniors Sam Williams and Frank Zombo, who combined for 94 tackles and 15.5 sacks. Zombo moves from end to tackle, with senior Larry Knight moving to his old spot. All three starting linebackers return, led by junior Nick Bellore, who will move to the outside after leading the team with 148 tackles (his 11.2 stops per game ranked fourth nationally). Junior Matt Berning will move to the middle linebacker spot, while senior Tim Brazzel is the most experienced of the bunch. The secondary appears healthy after most of the unit’s top players were hobbled by injury. Senior Josh Gordy is back to lead the group after battling through injuries and he’ll be joined by junior Taylor Bradley at cornerback. Senior free safety Eric Fraser has recovered from the ankle injury that cost him the final four games, and junior strong safety Chaz West is back after missing all of last season with a foot injury.
PREDICTION: As long as the team, especially LeFevour, can stay healthy, Central Michigan will get that fourth straight bowl berth. But a postseason game is not the primary goal; the MAC title is, and the Chippewas can certainly make their claim as the favorite to win their third league championship in the last four years.
EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES
Where: Ypsilanti, MI
Head Coach: Ron English, 1st year
2008 Record: 3-9 SU, 4-7 ATS
Facility: Rynearson Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 45
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -9.8 (#104 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -12.9 (#110 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 24 (#107 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 35.00 (#94 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 3-9, 8-28 (22%)
Overall ATS: 4-7, 14-20 (41%)
at Home ATS: 1-3, 4-8 (33%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-4, 10-12 (45%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 12-11 (52%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-1, 0-2 (0%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-6, 14-19 (42%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 25.8 (56) - 35.6 (110)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 417.3 (25) - 408.6 (96)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.46 (56) - 6.55 (113)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.25 (55) - 5.24 (110)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.48 (80) - 8.55 (116)
Turnover Differential: +0.08 (56)
2009 OUTLOOK: Eastern Michigan went 16-42 in five years under Jeff Genyk, who was fired after the Eagles’ 3-9 effort. Former Michigan and Louisville defensive coordinator Ron English was hired to replace him and turn around a program that hasn’t had a winning season since 1995. He’ll have 45 returning lettermen— including 16 starters—to work with, but also has a long road ahead.
OFFENSE: English will implement a new offensive scheme at Eastern Michigan, utilizing a pro-style attack with multiple one- and two-back formations. The Eagles are set at quarterback with the return of senior Andy Schmidt and junior Kyle McMahon. Schmidt started 10 games last year and completed 261 of 417 passes for 2,644 yards and 15 touchdowns, while McMahon played in five games before a season- ending shoulder injury. While he was behind center, McMahon completed 45 of 73 passes for 574 yards and two touchdowns. McMahon sat out spring drills while continuing to rehab his shoulder, so expect Schmidt to take the reins at least from the start of the season in the fall. While they don’t have a stud running back, the Eagles return their top four rushers. Leading the way is senior Terrence Blevins, who ran for 575 yards and 12 touchdowns, and he’ll once again be spelled by junior Dwayne Priest (474 yards) and sophomore Corey Welch. Priest looks to be getting more of the workload after he was kept out of the spring game in order to stay fresh after a taxing amount of carries during spring drills. Senior Jacory Stone, an All-MAC secondteamer who hauled in 88 passes for 943 yards and three touchdowns, heads a deep receiving corps that lost a 75-catch wideout in Tyler Jones. Sophomore Marvon Sanders and senior Dontayo Gage, who sat out the spring session recovering from shoulder surgery, figure to take over Jones’ spot. The duo combined for 50 catches for 464 yards last season. Junior tight end Josh LeDuc recorded 32 catches for 446 yards and four touchdowns last season. The offensive line loses an All-MAC talent in tackle T.J. Lang, but returns veterans in junior center Eric Davis and senior guards Andy Fretz and Stephen Johnson.
DEFENSE: The defense has to improve vastly if the Eagles are to make any headway in the standings after allowing 35.6 points and 408.6 yards per contest. The unit returns eight starters, but loses its top two tacklers—middle linebacker Daniel Holtzclaw and safety Jacob Wyatt. Holtzclaw graduated as the second-leading tackler in school history, while Wyatt racked up 88 stops. Seniors Jermaine Jenkins and Andre Hatchett, who combined for 115 tackles (9.5 for loss), return at outside linebacker, and highly touted freshman Darrius Moffett could see some action. Sophomore end Brad Ohrman (42 tackles, 11 for loss, six sacks) headlines the returning line. Senior Brandon Downs and sophomore Brandon Slater are back at tackle. The secondary should be solid with safeties Ryan Downard and Chris May, and the junior cornerback tandem of Kevin Long and Arrington Hicks. The quartet combined for five interceptions. Junior-college transfer Delano Johnson had an impressive spring and figures to have secured plenty of playing time.
PREDICTION: Despite the number of returning players, English will have a tough time getting the Eagles to improve on last year’s mark. The non-conference slate isn’t easy, with road games at Michigan, Northwestern and Arkansas. Maybe a two-win jump in the record is all one could ask for.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES
Where: DeKalb, IL
Head Coach: Jerry Kill, 2nd year
2008 Record: 6-7 SU, 6-6 ATS
Facility: Huskie Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 4
Lettermen Returning: 40
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +6.2 (#37 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +1.5 (#59 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 33 (#81 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 29.83 (#120 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 6-7, 15-23 (39%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 15-20 (43%)
at Home ATS: 1-4, 5-9 (36%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-2, 10-11 (48%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 10-13 (43%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-4, 5-12 (29%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-2, 10-8 (56%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 24.2 (76) - 18 (14)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 330.8 (85) - 294.4 (14)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.42 (61) - 5 (40)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.46 (45) - 4.06 (68)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.95 (61) - 6.2 (30)
Turnover Differential: +0.15 (51)
2009 OUTLOOK: It didn’t take long for Northern Illinois to erase the memory of its brutal 2-10 2007 campaign. Under first-year head coach Jerry Kill, the Huskies went 6-7 in ‘08 and earned a spot in the Independence Bowl, where they were beaten by Louisiana Tech. Year Two of the Kill era sees Northern Illinois having to replace a number of standout performers from the bowl team, most notably Mid-American Conference Defensive Player of the Year Larry English.
OFFENSE: With the multitude of losses on the other side of scrimmage, the Huskies will not have the luxury of scoring just 24.2 points per game again. They will also need to see improvement in the passing game from sophomore quarterback Chandler Harnish, who completed 118 of 211 pass attempts for 1,528 yards, eight touchdowns and nine interceptions. Harnish is a dual-threat who helped the Huskies rank third in the conference with 171.2 rushing yards per game by leading the team with 539 yards on the ground. Northern Illinois can’t count on Harnish to lead the team in rushing again, so sophomore Me’co Brown (510 yards, two touchdowns) will need to step up his game. But if Brown isn’t effective, the Huskies are deep in the backfield with junior Chad Spann (429, 8) and senior Justin Anderson capable of carrying the load (both were hampered by injuries in the spring but should be healthy in the fall). The wide receiver corps was hit hard by graduation, losing five seniors, including the top two pass catchers. The leading returning receiver is actually senior tight end Reed Cunningham (22 catches), who also leads all returnees with three touchdown receptions. Junior Landon Cox started eight games last year, catching 16 passes, and sophomores Nathan Palmer and Willie Clark should get a chance to start. The offensive line boasted three All-MAC third-teamers and two of those players return as seniors. Center Eddie Adamski and left guard Jason Onyebuagu will anchor the unit, and senior Kevin Skatrud and sophomore Trevor Olson will once again man the left side at guard and tackle, respectively.
DEFENSE: The conference’s best total (298.5 yards per game) and scoring defense (18 points per contest) will miss English immensely, but despite the loss of seven starters, returns a ton of experience, since Kill likes to rotate players in and out of the lineup throughout each game. The linebacker corps should be a strength despite the fact that only one starter—junior Alex Kube (59 tackles, seven for loss)—returns. Both senior Cory Hanson and sophomore Pat Schiller saw plenty of action and should be able to step right into the starting lineup and contribute. Junior nose guard Mike Krause (20 tackles, two fumble recoveries) is the lone returning starter on the defensive line. Junior Jake Coffman is the likely replacement for English at the right end position, with senior Brandon Brice at the other end spot. The secondary will be led by the players who finished No. 1 and No. 2 in tackles—senior free safety David Bryant (83 stops) and junior strong safety Mike Sobol (67). Juniors Kiaree Daniels and Patrick George, as well as juniorcollege transfer Chris Smith, will all get a chance to prove themselves at cornerback.
PREDICTION: Despite making it to a bowl game, the Huskies suffered their second straight losing campaign. With the major losses on defense, it would be expected that the unit will slip from its spot atop the conference. The offense doesn’t seem to be good enough to pick up the slack, so a third straight losing campaign and no bowl bid seems to be a good bet for Northern Illinois.
TOLEDO ROCKETS
Where: Toledo, OH
Head Coach: Tim Beckman, 1st year
2008 Record: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS
Facility: Glass Bowl
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 9
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 9
Lettermen Returning: 57
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -9 (#99 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -8.6 (#101 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 24 (#108 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 34.00 (#99 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 3-9, 13-23 (36%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 15-19 (44%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 10-7 (59%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 5-12 (29%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 10-14 (42%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-1, 6-5 (55%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-5, 9-13 (41%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 22.4 (88) - 31.4 (98)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 334.1 (84) - 381.3 (78)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.3 (67) - 5.52 (75)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.68 (30) - 4.44 (90)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 5.92 (95) - 7.02 (71)
Turnover Differential: +0 (63)
2009 OUTLOOK: During his tenure, Tom Amstutz led Toledo to four bowl games and two Mid-American Conference championships. But the Rockets fell to 3-9 and Amstutz tendered his resignation after eight years at the helm. Former Oklahoma State and Bowling Green defensive coordinator Tim Beckman was brought in to turn the program around.
OFFENSE: Nine starters return to an offense that ranked near the bottom in every major team statistical category. Beckman, like Amstutz before him, will run the spread offense, and senior Aaron Opelt will once again be the man running it. Opelt has started the last three seasons and completed 59.8 percent of his passes (225-for-376) for 2,176 yards, 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 2008. D.J. Lenehan, who started three games as a true freshman, could push for playing time if Opelt isn’t effective or if he isn’t fully recovered from an injury to his throwing shoulder suffered during spring practice. The receiving corps return two-time All- MAC honoree Stephen Williams, who has caught 144 passes and scored 15 times over the last two seasons, but the rest of the unit is relatively inexperienced. Only two other returning wideouts—senior Robin Bailey and sophomore Kenny Stafford—caught passes last season. Senior Tom Burzine will likely see most of the action at tight end, replacing the departed John Allen. The Rockets are set at running back with the return of All-MAC third-teamer DaJuane Collins, who rushed for 700 yards despite missing four games, and sophomore Morgan Williams, who recorded a whopping 1,010 yards in his debut campaign (good for ninth highest in MAC history for a freshman), including a school-record 330 yards against Miami (Ohio). All five starters are back on the offensive line, led by seniors Jared DeWalt at left guard and Buster Garrett at center. Sophomores Mike VanDerMeulen and John Morookian and junior Kevin Kowalski round out the unit.
DEFENSE: This is Beckman’s area of expertise and his main goal will be to cut down on the points allowed after the Rockets gave up 31.4 per game. Nine starters return, including five of the team’s top six tacklers. Senior safety Barry Church, a three-time first-team All-MAC selection who led the team with six pass breakups and three forced fumbles, is the star of the unit. Senior rover Lester Richmond will join Church in the middle, while the return from injury of junior cornerback Desmond Marrow (30 tackles in seven games) will be most welcome. Freshman Jermaine Robinson is a highly touted prospect who had a strong session after enrolling at Toledo in the spring semester, and he could see plenty of action. Leading tackler Archie Donald, who recorded 119 stops after sitting out the 2007 campaign due to academic issues, is the standout at linebacker. He’ll be joined by the senior tandem of Daris Quinn and Beauy Brudzinski, who combined for 113 tackles. Beckman will need improvement from the defensive line after the team recorded a MAClow 10 sacks. Seniors Skylaar Constant, Maurice Hill and Derrick Summers will be depended upon to step up their games and provide leadership.
PREDICTION: Beckman has some huge shoes to fill and a turnaround won’t happen overnight. Considering the amount of starters back (18), there should be some improvement. But the non-conference schedule isn’t easy and the Rockets are still a notch below the more talented teams in the MAC West Division.
WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS
Where: Kalamazoo, MI
Head Coach: Bill Cubit, 5th year
2008 Record: 9-4 SU, 5-7 ATS
Facility: Waldo Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 4
Lettermen Returning: 32
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +3.7 (#49 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +0.4 (#64 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 33 (#80 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 31.17 (#112 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 9-4, 22-16 (58%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 15-20 (43%)
at Home ATS: 2-2, 5-8 (38%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-5, 10-12 (45%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 8-14 (36%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-4, 5-13 (28%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-3, 9-7 (56%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 28.6 (41) - 24.9 (63)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 411.5 (28) - 395.3 (88)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.99 (25) - 5.55 (77)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.24 (57) - 3.83 (52)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.16 (50) - 7.38 (87)
Turnover Differential: -0.54 (92)
2009 OUTLOOK: Western Michigan has been to two bowl games in the last three seasons and head coach Bill Cubit was rewarded with a new five-year contract in the offseason as a result. Cubit will have a lot of work ahead of him if he wants to get his team back to the postseason, as it lost a ton of experience and quarterback Tim Hiller is coming off ACL surgery for the second time.
OFFENSE: Hiller was the Mid-American Conference’s top passer (286.5 yards per game, 36 touchdowns) and an All-MAC thirdteam selection. But he has had a history of bad injuries—he had ACL surgery after his freshman season and sat out the entire 2006 campaign. Hiller sat out the spring session, and if he’s not ready in the fall, either junior Drew Burdi, a dual threat, or redshirt freshman Alex Carder, who has the stronger arm, will take the reins. Burdi saw action in four games, completing 6 of 11 passes for 87 yards and his only touchdown strike was the highlight of the loss to Ball State. There aren’t any questions in the Broncos’ running game. Senior Brandon West and sophomore Aaron Winchester form a onetwo punch of power and finesse. West comes off a junior campaign in which he became the third Bronco running back in four seasons to rush for over 1,000 yards (1,029) while recording 11 total touchdowns (eight rushing, three receiving). Winchester averaged nearly four yards per carry. Both are solid receivers out of the backfield, combining for 47 receptions for 376 yards. Three of the team’s top four receivers are gone and they took with them 208 combined receptions for 2,452 yards and 19 touchdowns. All-MAC third-team selection Juan Nunez (57 catches, seven touchdowns) figures to be the new No. 1 target. Former quarterback Robert Arnheim figures to have a larger role and incoming freshman Ansel Ponder could see action right away. Sophomore Jamelle Murray, who missed all of last season battling Hodgkin’s lymphoma, should see action as well after making a name for himself in the spring game with six catches for 67 yards. Senior tight end Matt Stevens (two touchdowns) has shown effectiveness at the goal line. Four starters return on the line, headlined by All-MAC third-team guard Phillip Swanson. Sophomore Anthony Parker excelled when moved to the right side of the line.
DEFENSE: Next to Hiller’s status, the biggest question mark for Western Michigan is the secondary, where all four starters are gone, including three All-MAC honorees. Free safety Louis Delmas, an All-MAC first-teamer and the team’s leading tackler, will be missed most, and Miami (Fla.) transfer Doug Wiggins figures to replace him. Sophomores Josh Price and David Lewis move up to start at cornerback. Also in the mix to get playing time is sophomore safety Vernon Stewart, who had an outstanding spring game with 11 tackles. Two starters return at linebacker—senior Austin Pritchard, an All-MAC first-team honoree who led the team with 12.5 tackles for loss, and sophomore Mitch Zajac. Junior Harrison Porter started at both outside spots and figures to earn the job on the weak side. The line will be young on the right side and experienced on the left. Sophomores Drew Nowak and Weston Peiffer both logged significant time as freshmen, while junior Justin Braska and senior Cody Cielenski round out the unit.
PREDICTION: The non-conference schedule is a tough one and if the Broncos can’t win a majority of those contests, they’ll likely have to win the MAC West and league title game to get back to a bowl game. Hiller’s health obviously is the key, but if there aren’t a number of players to step up on defense, Western Michigan could be on the outside looking in during the postseason.
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