The Independents remaining in college football are again down to three, Notre Dame, Navy, and Army. For 2009, the most optimistic outlook comes out of South Bend, where the Irish bring back 16 starters from their first bowl winning team in 15 years. At the service academies, Army begins anew under first-year head coach Rich Ellerson, while for Navy, the bowl site and date is already set, the Midshipmen just need to qualify. Read on as we take a closer look at the Independents, and their prospects for 2009.
Let"s face it, Charlie Weis has yet to wake up the echoes in South Bend, but there is reason for optimism in 2009—-thanks to a veteran offense and a manageable schedule. Ten starters are back on offense for Notre Dame (7-6), including quarterback Jimmy Clausen and two pretty good playmakers in receivers Golden Tate (1,080 yards, 10 touchdowns) and Michael Floyd (719 yards, seven scores). Clausen (25 touchdowns, 17 interceptions), who has had his share of growing pains in South Bend, should be well protected in 2009 as four offensive line starters return. Look for junior tailback Armando Allen to emerge as a star running behind the seasoned forward wall, anchored by senior guard Eric Olsen, a future pro. The Irish open the season at home versus Nevada and there are a number of rebuilding programs from big conferences on the slate (i.e. Michigan, Purdue, Washington, Washington State, Connecticut and Stanford), so nine wins are possible. Navy (8-5) got a glimpse at the future when quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada was sidelined for five games and Ricky Dobbs operated the triple-option offense well. Sophomore Marcus Curry will have a learning curve at slotback, but has the size and athleticism to be special. The defense has a strong nucleus, including senior linebacker Ross Pospisil (106 tackles) and junior rover Wyatt Middleton (80 stops). Army (3-9) pulled the plug on Stan Brock and replaced him with veteran coach Rich Ellerson from Cal Poly. Ellerson is installing a new offense (the triple option) and a new defense (double-eagle-flex formation), so he"ll need time to produce results.
2009 PREDICTED FINISH
1. Notre Dame
2. Navy
3. Army
ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS
Where: West Point, NY
Head Coach: Rich Ellerson, 1st year
2008 Record: 3-9 SU, 6-5 ATS
Facility: Michie Stadium
Offense: Triple Option - Starters Returning: 3
Defense: Double-Eagle Flex - Starters Returning: 7
Lettermen Returning: 32
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -8.9 (#98 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -8.3 (#98 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 23 (#110 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 31.83 (#107 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 3-9, 9-27 (25%)
Overall ATS: 6-5, 13-19 (41%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 4-9 (31%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-2, 9-10 (47%)
vs Conference ATS: 0-1, 1-3 (25%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-0, 3-4 (43%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-5, 10-15 (40%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 14.8 (117) - 23.7 (51)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 287.7 (110) - 339.5 (48)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.52 (109) - 5.63 (85)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.56 (37) - 4.01 (66)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 4.34 (120) - 8.04 (110)
Turnover Differential: -1.17 (116)
2009 OUTLOOK: The Army football program has been in disarray for a long time. The Black Knights haven"t had a winning season since 1996, and haven"t won more than four games in a campaign since ‘97. They went a miserable 6-18 in two years under Stan Brock, who was fired last Dec. 12, days after Army was shut out by Navy, 34-0. Enter Rich Ellerson, who becomes the Black Knights" third head coach in the last four years. Ellerson, who led Cal Poly to the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs twice, is considered one of the nation"s top coaches in running the triple-option offense.
OFFENSE: Ellerson"s area of expertise will be tested as he will try to turn around an offense that ranked 110th in the nation with an average of 287.7 yards per contest despite ranking ninth in rushing (241.4 yards per game). The biggest move, literally, during spring drills came when senior Ali Villanueva, at 6-10 the tallest offensive lineman in the Football Bowl Subdivision, was moved to wide receiver. At 283 pounds, he will be a handful for opposing cornerbacks. Senior Damion Hunter, who tied for the team lead with 11 catches, and sophomore Davyd Brooks will be the other main targets. Just who that signal-caller will be is still a question yet to be answered. Junior Chip Bowden started nine games, and was a strong rusher (572 yards), but he struggled when putting the ball in the air, as he completed just 43 percent of his passes. Sophomore Max Jenkins impressed the coaching staff during the spring and seems to have all the necessary tools to run Ellerson"s offense. A solid running game is essential to the success of the triple option, and the fullback will have an important role following the departure of Collin Mooney. Sophomore CeDarius Williams exited spring drills atop the depth chart, and will be pushed for playing time by junior Kingsley Ehie. The two open slotback spots will be taken over by junior Patrick Mealy and senior Ian Smith. The line will get an overhaul with just one starter—senior tackle Jason Johnson—back. Junior Zac Peterson will take over at center, while sophomores Brad Kelly and Mike Mc- Dermott, are penciled in at the tackle spots.
DEFENSE: The new scheme was devised by Ellerson while an assistant at the University of Arizona. The secondary should be a solid unit which returns a ton of experience. Senior cornerback Mario Hill broke up a team-high six passes last season. On the other side, juniors Richard King and Jordan Trimble, who sat out spring drills recovering from a knee injury, will compete for playing time. Juniors Donovan Travis (64 tackles, two interceptions) and Desmond Lamb will start at free and strong safety, respectively. The line should also be in decent shape as long as its top players are healthy. Tackle Mike Gann and end Josh McNary both hope to have strong junior campaigns after recovering from injuries that hampered their development in the offseason. Senior Victor Ugenyi (four sacks) moves from end to tackle. Junior Steve Anderson, who is the top returning tackler (82) and led the nation with six forced fumbles, is the only returning starter among the linebacker corps. He"ll once again man the middle, and should be flanked by sophomore Steve Erzinger at the rover spot and sophomore Andrew Rodriguez at the whip position.
PREDICTION: It"s hard to expect much improvement from a team that has gone through so many changes. Learning the new schemes may take some time. The big games on the schedule as usual are Air Force on Nov. 7 and Navy on Dec. 12. The Black Knights should not be considered a candidate to win the Commander-in-Chief"s Trophy.
NAVY MIDSHIPMEN
Where: Annapolis, MD
Head Coach: Ken Niumatalolo, 2nd year
2008 Record: 8-5 SU, 6-6 ATS
Facility: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 4
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Lettermen Returning: 27
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +5.2 (#43 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +4.5 (#45 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 39 (#62 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 35.15 (#93 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 8-5, 25-14 (64%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 18-18 (50%)
at Home ATS: 2-2, 4-9 (31%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-4, 14-9 (61%)
vs Conference ATS: 1-1, 4-3 (57%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-1, 8-10 (44%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-5, 10-8 (56%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 27.2 (48) - 22 (40)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 350 (68) - 342.1 (51)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.7 (40) - 5.64 (87)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 5.33 (9) - 3.75 (45)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.52 (11) - 8.25 (114)
Turnover Differential: +1.15 (8)
2009 OUTLOOK: The key number for Navy is seven. The Midshipmen will be looking to record their seventh straight winning season, earn a berth in a seventh straight bowl game and win their seventh straight Commander-in-Chief"s Trophy. They look to be in pretty good shape to accomplish the latter feat, but to reach the former two goals, head coach Ken Niumatalolo will have to find the right replacements to fill holes left by seven departed starters to an offense that will be looking to lead the nation in rushing for the fifth straight season.
OFFENSE: Leading the running attack, which gained 292.4 yards per game, will be quarterback Ricky Dobbs. The 6-1, 198-pound junior burst onto the scene in the victory over SMU by coming off the bench and rushing for 224 yards and four touchdowns. He played in eight games, starting one, but finished with 495 yards and eight scores. Passing will be an afterthought, but when he did put the ball in the air, he completed 9 of 16 passes for 212 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Leading rushers Shun White and Eric Kettani, who combined for 2,774 yards and 12 touchdowns, are gone and will be replaced by a pair of sophomores—Alex Teich, who had an impressive spring, at fullback and Marcus Curry at slotback. Senior Bobby Doyle, who has been primarily used as a blocker, returns at the other slotback spot. They"ll be two new starting wide receivers that will be lightly utilized—as usual. Juniors Mario Washington and Mike Schupp saw action in every game but caught just a combined four passes for 70 yards. Three-fifths of the starting line returns, including the entire right side in junior Matt Molloy at tackle and senior Curtis Bass at guard. Left tackle Jeff Battipaglia is back, and rounding out the unit will be senior Osei Asante at left guard and sophomore Brady DeMell at center.
DEFENSE: Navy possessed the most-improved scoring defense in the country, allowing 22 points per game after giving up 36.4 in 2007. While seven starters are listed as returning, there are 11 players who started at least one game in ‘08 on the roster. There"s plenty of experience along the defensive line, which will once again feature the senior trio of ends Michael Walsh and Matt Nechak (team-high four sacks) and nose guard Nate Frazier. Walsh missed most of last season with a foot injury and his replacement, sophomore Jabaree Tuani, earned valuable experience and could step right in if any of the starters go down. The linebacker corps also retains a ton of experience in four returning starting seniors. Leading the way is inside linebacker Ross Pospisil, who led the squad with 106 tackles while also forcing three fumbles. He"ll be joined by Tony Haberer on the inside and Clint Sovie, who moves from the inside, and Craig Schaefer on the outside. The secondary sees a major personnel move with junior Wyatt Middleton, who started every game at free safety and recorded 80 tackles, switching to rover. Sophomore Kwesi Mitchell and senior Darius Terry will battle for the free safety spot. Senior Blake Carter, who started three games and had one interception, and junior Kevin Edwards, will be the cornerbacks.
PREDICTION: If the Middies are bowl eligible by the end of the campaign, they will play in the Texas Bowl. Their 13-game schedule contains some tough outings (road games at Ohio State, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame) but with a stud like Dobbs running the offense, it will be hard to count Navy out of finishing above .500 for the eighth straight season.
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH
Where: South Bend, IN
Head Coach: Charlie Weis, 5th year
2008 Record: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS
Facility: Notre Dame Stadium
Offense: Pro Set - Starters Returning: 10
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Lettermen Returning: 44
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +2.5 (#54 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +1.2 (#62 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 44 (#43 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 43.08 (#37 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 7-6, 20-18 (53%)
Overall ATS: 7-6, 16-21 (43%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 7-13 (35%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-3, 9-8 (53%)
vs Conference ATS: 1-0, 3-1 (75%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-3, 10-10 (50%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-3, 6-11 (35%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 24.7 (67) - 22.2 (42)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 355.1 (65) - 329.8 (40)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.23 (75) - 5.03 (45)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.27 (101) - 4.06 (67)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.14 (52) - 6.03 (20)
Turnover Differential: -0.23 (76)
2009 OUTLOOK: The Fighting Irish bounced back from a forgettable 2007 campaign to finish above .500 in Charlie Weis" fourth year at the helm, going 7-6 and capping it off with a recordsetting victory in the Hawaii Bowl over the locals. Notre Dame ended a nine-game bowl losing streak with a 49-21 win over the Warriors that saw quarterback Jimmy Clausen throw for 401 yards and five touchdowns and its defense pick up eight sacks. Weis will be working with his most experience roster yet, including 10 returning starters on offense, so expectations are high.
OFFENSE: Weis announced he"ll run the offense and resume calling plays as he did from 2005-07, and with only the left tackle position needing a replacement, it"s clear all the pieces are in place. Clausen comes off the most prolific passing season by a Notre Dame sophomore and figures to take his game to the next level. He completed 61 percent of his throws for 3,172 yards and 25 touchdowns with 17 interceptions as the offense averaged 245.4 passing yards and 24.7 points per game. A lot of credit could be given to a line that allowed only 22 sacks, a major improvement from "07 when Irish signal-callers were dumped 58 times. Behind Clausen on the depth chart is sophomores Dayne Crist and Nate Montana. The latter, a walk-on, is the son of legend Joe Montana. Clausen has to love the fact seniors Dan Wenger (center), Chris Stewart, Sam Young, Eric Olsen and Paul Duncan return to the line. Everyone but Duncan started last year, and he"s back from injury after making a dozen starts the previous season. Senior James Aldridge and juniors Armando Allen and Robert Hughes are expected to share the rushing load again. Each had at least 90 carries a year ago. The receiver corps is deep, led by junior Golden Tate (1,080 yards, 10 touchdowns). He had 177 yards and three scores in the bowl win.
DEFENSE: Six starters return to a unit that improved in every major statistical category compared to 2007, with the biggest difference coming against the run. The Irish allowed 134.2 rushing yards per game, down from 195.4, and cut their points against by almost a touchdown per contest. Junior Kenny Neal and sophomore Kapron Lewis-Moore are the projected starting ends. Neal"s 16 starts make him the most accomplished lineman on the roster. On the interior, junior tackle Ian Williams has 85 tackles over the past two seasons and can clog the middle with his 310-pound frame. Sophomore tackle Ethan Johnson tied for the team lead in sacks with 3.5 and has all the tools. Leadership will come from the secondary, which returns three starters, including leading tackler Kyle McCarthy. The fifth-year senior safety made 110 stops and picked off two passes. Junior Harrison Smith (57 tackles, 3.5 sacks) is moving from linebacker to fill a void at free safety, and seniors Raeshon McNeil and Darrin Walls are proven cornerbacks. Mc- Neil broke up a team-best 11 passes. The jury is out at linebacker after standout Maurice Crum"s graduation and Smith"s switch to the secondary. But there are more Smiths to go around. Junior Brian Smith comes off a 54-tackle campaign, and seniors Scott Smith and Toryan Smith are pushing for starting jobs, along with sophomores Steve Filer, David Posluszny and Anthony McDonald.
PREDICTION: If all the experience brings consistency on Saturdays, the Irish will be able to top last year"s win total and challenge for a more high-profile bowl game. Seven of their opponents played in a bowl last season, including USC, and quite a few defeats can be avenged. Don"t rule out 10 wins if the defense pulls its weight.
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