Conference USA won a league-record four bowl games last season and was one of just two conferences in the land whose offenses averaged over 400 yards per ballgame-—the other being the Big 12. Offense will again be C-USA"s calling card in 2009, so play any “under” bets you make this year on this league"s teams with caution. East Carolina is the defending champion and unlike past seasons, is getting love on a national scale. Southern Miss should be a contender in East Division too, while the high-powered attacks of Houston and Tulsa will look to set the pace in the West. Read on for a more in-depth look at Conference USA and its 12 teams for 2009.
East Carolina looks like the league"s standard bearer as Skip Holtz has a budding star under center in quarterback Patrick Pinkney and his defense features a proven playmaker at each tier: tackle Linval Joseph, linebacker Nick Johnson and safety Van Eskridge. The team most likely to push the Pirates for C-USA East Division supremacy is Southern Miss, a team with Damion Fletcher (1,313 rushing yards), one of the best running backs that most people have never heard of, along with the potent pass-catch combo of Austin Davis (3,128 yards, 23 touchdown passes) to DeAndre Brown (1,117 yards, 12 scores).
The West Division will feature offensive pyrotechnics too. Houston signal-caller Case Keenum (5,020 yards, 44 touchdown passes), the 2008 C-USA Offensive Player of the Year, leads a star-studded unit that includes sophomore running back Bryce Beall (1,247 rushing yards) and speedy wideout Tyson Carrier (1,026 yards, nine touchdowns). Tulsa (47.2 points per game) will break in some new skill players, but should still score a ton of points in 2009, as will UTEP (with junior quarterback Trevor Vittatoe at the helm) and SMU (where June Jones has sophomore star-in-the-making Bo Levi Mitchell running his lethal no-huddle scheme).
2009 PREDICTED FINISH
CONFERENCE USA EAST
1. East Carolina
2. Southern Miss
3. Memphis
4. Central Florida
5. Marshall
6. UAB
CONFERENCE USA WEST
1. Houston
2. Tulsa
3. UTEP
4. SMU
5. Rice
6. Tulane
EAST DIVISION
EAST CAROLINA PIRATES
Where: Greenville, NC
Head Coach: Skip Holtz, 5th year
2008 Record: 9-5 SU, 5-9 ATS
Facility: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 52
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +2.4 (#55 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +2.1 (#56 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 39 (#62 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 37.58 (#77 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 9-5, 24-16 (60%)
Overall ATS: 5-9, 23-17 (58%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 11-6 (65%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-7, 12-11 (52%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-6, 15-10 (60%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-8, 10-12 (45%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-1, 13-5 (72%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 23.4 (81) - 21.1 (30)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 339.1 (81) - 333 (42)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.08 (82) - 4.95 (36)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.42 (97) - 3.78 (48)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.16 (49) - 6.3 (34)
Turnover Differential: +0.36 (38)
2009 OUTLOOK: When Skip Holtz arrived as the new head coach at East Carolina back in 2005, the school was coming off a horrendous two-season stretch that included 20 losses in 23 games, with the defense allowing 867 points over that time. Holtz has not only gotten the Pirates to shake their losing ways, increasing the team"s win total each of the past four seasons, but he helped guide East Carolina to its first league championship in 32 years in 2008, after the Pirates defeated Tulsa 27-24 in the Conference USA Championship Game.
OFFENSE: Six teams in C-USA scored more than the 328 total points (23.4 points per game) the Pirates put up on the scoreboard, and they ranked only eighth in the league in total offense, averaging just over 340 yards per game. Eight starters return to the offensive unit, but the Pirates will need to increase their production, both on the ground and through the air, if they plan on retaining their East Division crown against the likes of Memphis and Southern Miss. Senior Patrick Pinkney returns at quarterback after starting in all 14 games a year ago, completing 61 percent of his 363 pass attempts for 2,675 yards, 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Pinkney"s backup is fellow senior Rob Kass. Sophomore Brandon Jackson, a transfer from Kentucky, was atop the spring depth chart at running back, and Holtz feels he can be the starter on an every-down basis for East Carolina. Senior J.R. Rogers will also compete for carries, but the status of junior Norman Whitley (698 yards), the team"s leading rusher, was up in the air after he sat out spring drills. Junior Dwayne Harris (58 catches, 654 yards) is the team"s leading returnee at wideout and he will be joined by senior Reyn Willis and a pair of sophomores in Darryl Freeney (22, 352) and Joe Womack (17, 230). Junior Kevin Gidrey will take over for departed tight end Davon Drew (three touchdowns), who was a valuable part of the passing game. The offensive line has excellent experience with the return of four proven starters in junior tackle D.J. Scott, senior guard Terence Campbell, junior guard Cory Dowless and senior center Sean Allen.
DEFENSE: While the Pirates were far from overwhelming on the offensive side, that was certainly not the case on defense, as they led the way in Conference USA in both total (333 yards per game) and scoring defense (21.1 points per game). East Carolina held five of its 14 opponents under 20 points, with all five of those games ending in victory. Holtz will welcome back eight returning defensive starters. Senior end C.J. Wilson (70 tackles, 18.5 for loss, 10.5 sacks) is the top performer on the squad"s four-man front, and he is capably supported by senior tackle Jay Ross (48, 9.5, 4.5) and junior tackle Linval Joseph (43, 8, 2.5). Redshirt freshman Allen Crowder could push his way into the other end spot. Senior middle linebacker Nick Johnson (102 stops, 10 for loss) is East Carolina"s leading returning tackler and he"ll be flanked by junior Jeremy Chambliss (60 tackles) and senior Chris Mattocks (29). The secondary boasts the return of a trio of starters in senior free safety Van Eskridge (97 tackles, four interceptions) and junior cornerbacks Dekota Marshall and Travis Simmons (two interceptions).
PREDICTION: East Carolina got national attention at the beginning of the 2008 campaign by upsetting ranked opponents Virginia Tech and West Virginia. That helped pave the way for the Pirates" first Conference USA title and an appearance in the Liberty Bowl, where they failed to hold a 13-point lead and fell to Kentucky, 23-19. A solid defense remains the key for success.
MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD
Where: Huntington, WV
Head Coach: Mark Snyder, 5th year
2008 Record: 4-8 SU, 4-7 ATS
Facility: Joan Edwards Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 3-4 - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 46
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -7.2 (#93 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -5.7 (#89 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 31 (#86 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 34.08 (#98 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 4-8, 12-24 (33%)
Overall ATS: 4-7, 13-20 (39%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 8-6 (57%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 5-14 (26%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 12-12 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-3, 4-5 (44%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-4, 9-15 (38%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 20.5 (98) - 27.7 (73)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 330.1 (86) - 418.1 (103)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.12 (80) - 5.44 (71)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.47 (44) - 3.96 (63)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 5.9 (97) - 7.16 (79)
Turnover Differential: -0.33 (83)
2009 OUTLOOK: Between the 1987 and 2002 seasons, the Marshall football program won 10 or more games 13 times. But hard times have since fallen on the Thundering Herd, as they"ve struggled through four straight losing campaigns, the longest stretch of losing seasons at the school since 1980-83. A year ago, Marshall was 4-4 through eight games but then lost the last four. Head coach Mark Snyder, a former player for the Herd, is hoping the return of 16 starters will be enough to prevent a fifth straight losing season.
OFFENSE: Marshall was held to 14 points or fewer in five games, all losses, and the Herd"s scoring production (20.5 points per game) and total offense (330.1 yards per game) both ranked near the bottom of the charts in Conference USA. The running game was respectable, grinding out 157.4 yards per game, but the passing attack was weak (172.1 yards per game). Sophomore quarterback Mark Cann was thrown into the fire, completing just over 50 percent of his passes for 1,767 yards, 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He will be pressured for playing time by junior Brian Anderson and junior-college transfer Press Taylor. Junior Darius Marshall is a reliable back, having rushed for over 1,700 yards over the past two seasons, including 1,095 (with five scores) in 224 attempts a year ago. Backup Terrell Edwards had touchdown runs of 49 and 53 yards among his 28 carries. Leading wide receiver Darius Passmore (56 catches, seven touchdowns) has departed but junior Bryant Milligan (17 catches) should be able to fill some of that lost production. Snyder has brought in five junior-college receivers to compete for playing time and add depth. Senior Cody Slate (40 catches, eight scores) is an experienced and capable tight end, and he will draw plenty of attention from opposing defenses. Sophomore tackles C.J. Wood and Ryan Tillman anchor Marshall"s offensive interior, with both having earned spots on C-USA"s All-Freshman team. Juniors Chad Schofield and Josh Evans both have starting experience at guard, while sophomore John Bruhin is poised to take over at center.
DEFENSE: Defensive coordinator Rick Minter begins his second season on the job and his improved unit surrendered 79 fewer points than in 2007, giving up 27.7 per game. But the Herd still ranked only eighth in C-USA in total defense, allowing an average of 418 yards per game. Experience is the name of the game for the Herd up front, with all four starters back, including senior end Albert McClellan (58 tackles, 2.5 sacks), junior end Michael Janac (46, 2.5) and junior tackles Delvin Johnson and Johnny Jones. Although the Herd lost middle linebacker Maurice Kitchens (97 stops, four interceptions), senior Mario Harvey, who had teamhighs of 107 tackles and 4.5 sacks, should help stabilize the linebacking unit. Another starter, Brandon Burns (69 tackles), also returns to his spot and junior Corey Hart, who played in all 12 games, will get a look in the middle. Two sophomores who had excellent freshman campaigns at cornerback are DeQuan Bembry (80 tackles, 7.5 for loss, 11 pass breakups) and T.J. Drakeford (nine pass breakups). A pair of seniors, Ashton Hall and John Saunders, are back at safety.
PREDICTION: Snyder is anxious to get Marshall back on the plus side of the win-loss column after four consecutive losing seasons, but in order to accomplish that, the Thundering Herd must generate more points. If Cann, Marshall and Slate can have big years on offense, and Minter"s defense makes some additional strides, a .500 campaign may be within reach.
MEMPHIS TIGERS
Where: Memphis, TN
Head Coach: Tommy West, 9th year
2008 Record: 6-7 SU, 5-6 ATS
Facility: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 4
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 7
Lettermen Returning: 49
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +0 (#63 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -3.3 (#81 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 30 (#89 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 39.38 (#64 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 6-7, 15-23 (39%)
Overall ATS: 5-6, 15-17 (47%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 8-10 (44%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-3, 7-7 (50%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-3, 12-10 (55%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-2, 4-5 (44%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-4, 11-12 (48%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 27.2 (47) - 27.2 (68)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 417.2 (26) - 353.8 (57)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.55 (49) - 5.93 (97)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.69 (29) - 4.66 (97)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.62 (75) - 7.48 (92)
Turnover Differential: +0.08 (60)
2009 OUTLOOK: Head coach Tommy West, in his ninth season at Memphis, is facing a huge roster turnover with the loss of 11 starters—including seven on offense—from a team that played .500 ball through 12 games but was whipped by South Florida, 41-14, in the St. Petersburg Bowl.
OFFENSE: Gone from the starting lineup are four members of the line, a pair of receivers and a tight end. Those players helped the Tigers finish fifth in Conference USA in total offense (417.2 yards per game) and sixth in scoring (27.2 points per game), as they racked up the second-highest rushing total in the conference (2,533 yards, 194.8 yards per game). Senior Arkelon Hall, who started 11 games, returns at quarterback to pilot the Memphis attack. Hall completed 57 percent of his 335 pass attempts for 2,275 yards, 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Fellow senior Brett Toney, who started in two games while Hall was out with a thumb injury, threw for 338 yards and three scores in wins over Southern Miss and SMU. Senior Curtis Steele ran for 1,223 yards (5.6-yard average) and seven touchdowns on 218 carries. Sophomore Brandon Ross added 296 yards. The two players who put up the best numbers among the wideouts are senior Carlos Singleton (52 receptions, 791 yards, five scores) and senior Duke Calhoun (40, 487, 3), who has made a catch in 37 straight games. Sophomore Jermaine McKenzie, a transfer from Miami (Fla.), will also compete for playing time, along with sophomore Cam Baker. The new tight end is junior Deven Onarheim. In order for the offense to fire on all cylinders, the rebuilt line will have to perform. Junior center Dominik Riley is the lone returning starter. The rest of the interior will be filled by a pair of sophomores on the left side, guard Michael Antonescu and tackle Ronald Leary, and on the right side by senior Malcolm Rawls and junior tackle Brad Paul.
DEFENSE: The Tigers won three of their last four regular-season games and headed into the St. Petersburg Bowl with some momentum, but that was stopped cold by South Florida as the Bulls scored five touchdowns and ran up 496 yards. Even so, Memphis put in a fairly credible defensive effort overall, placing third in the conference in total defense (353.8 yards per game) and fourth in points allowed (27.2 per game). The strength of the unit should be at linebacker with all three starters back, including senior Greg Jackson (52 stops, 11.5 for loss, four sacks) and junior Jeremy Longstreet (80 tackles) on the outside, and junior Winston Bowens (55) patrolling the middle. LSU transfer Derrick Odom and Mississippi State transfer Jamon Hughes should also see playing time at the position. The four-man front lost three starters but still can count on junior end Jada Brown (two sacks) to put in a solid effort. Two seniors, end Greg Terrell and tackle Steven Turner, and junior nose tackle Charlie Bryant round out the rest of the line. Returning starters Deante Lamar (35 tackles, six pass breakups), a senior, and D.A. Griffin (64 tackles), a junior, make a solid pair at the corners, while senior Alton Starr (team-high 90 tackles), coming off knee surgery, lines up at free safety. Sophomore Darius Davis will play at strong safety.
PREDICTION: The Memphis defense has plenty of experience on hand, so the Tigers should be in good shape on that side of the ball. It"s the offense that West has some rebuilding to do, especially on the line. But if some of the incoming transfers step up and do the job, and Hall and Steele have productive seasons, the Tigers may snare a third straight bowl berth.
SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES
Where: Hattiesburg, MS
Head Coach: Larry Fedora, 2nd year
2008 Record: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS
Facility: Carlisle-Faulkner Stadium
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 42
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +6.5 (#35 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +6.9 (#30 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 41 (#55 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 35.50 (#89 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 7-6, 23-17 (58%)
Overall ATS: 8-5, 20-18 (53%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 7-9 (44%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-2, 13-9 (59%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 13-12 (52%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-3, 16-10 (62%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-2, 4-8 (33%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 30.6 (31) - 24.1 (54)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 433.5 (20) - 365.8 (65)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.7 (38) - 5.43 (70)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.71 (28) - 4.24 (83)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.86 (67) - 6.58 (50)
Turnover Differential: +1 (11)
2009 OUTLOOK: After Southern Miss dropped a 36-30 road decision to Memphis in its final October game, the Golden Eagles were just 2-6. That disappointing record put the Golden Eagles" Conference USA-leading streak of six straight bowls in jeopardy. But somehow, Southern Miss turned things around under first-year head coach Larry Fedora down the stretch, winning its last four games to qualify for a seventh straight bowl trip. The Golden Eagles capped it all off by defeating Troy, 30-27 (in overtime) in the New Orleans Bowl.
OFFENSE: Southern Miss showed some good balance by mixing the run with the pass, helping it set a new school mark for total offense in a season (5,636 yards), placing it fourth in C-USA with 433.5 yards per game. The team"s passing yardage of 3,134 (241.1 yards per game) also set a school record, as Southern Miss finished fifth in the conference in scoring (30.6 points per game). Sophomore quarterback Austin Davis started in every game as a freshman and showed the poise of a veteran, throwing for 3,128 yards and 23 touchdowns with only eight interceptions. Davis not only did it with his arm, but also with his legs, finishing second on the team in rushing with 508 yards and nine touchdowns. Providing a nice complement to Davis is senior running back Damion Fletcher, the school"s career rushing leader with 4,287 yards (21 games of 100 yards or more). Last season he had 219 carries for 1,313 yards and 10 scores. During the offseason, however, Fletcher got into some legal trouble and was put on probation when he pleaded guilty to firing a gun within Hattiesburg city limits. He"s expected back for the start of the season. Sophomore wide receiver DeAndre Brown made as big a splash as a freshman, leading all first-year wideouts in the country in receiving yardage (1,117) and touchdowns (12) and placing third in catches (67). Brown"s season came to a premature end when he suffered a broken leg in the bowl game, but he"s expected to make a full recovery. Senior flanker Gerald Baptiste (35 catches, 460 yards) is another reliable target. The line returns four starters—senior tackle Kyle Burkhart, senior guards Micah Brown and Ryan Hebert and junior center Cameron Zipp.
DEFENSE: Two years ago the defense led Conference USA in points allowed. Last season, despite losing seven starters, the Golden Eagles tied for second by allowing 24.1 points per game. The unit also forced 29 turnovers and finished fourth in total defense, giving up 365.8 yards per game. Eight starters are back, so this unit should be very stingy once again. A pair of junior ends, Roshaad Byrd (29 tackles) and Deddrick Jones, along with junior nose tackle Anthony Gray (29 tackles, 7.5 for loss, six sacks) are the returning starters up front. The linebacking corps took a deep hit with the loss of Gerald McRath and Tokumb Abanikanda, with those two combining for 211 tackles, 20.5 for loss. The lone remaining starter is junior Martez Smith, who recorded 59 tackles, six for loss. Sophomore Ronnie Thornton should take over one of the outside spots. The entire secondary returns, and is led by senior free safety Eddie Hicks (64 tackles, four picks) and senior cornerback Andre Watson (three interceptions). Two juniors fill the other two starting slots, cornerback C.J. Bailey (36 tackles) and safety Justin Wilson.
PREDICTION: Fedora"s first season didn"t exactly go smoothly with six losses in the first eight games. But he held the program together and the end result was a fourth bowl triumph in the last five years for the Golden Eagles. With key skill position players back on offense, combined with a dependable defense, another bowl berth awaits.
ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM BLAZERS
Where: Birmingham, AL
Head Coach: Neil Callaway, 3rd year
2008 Record: 4-8 SU, 6-4 ATS
Facility: Legion Field
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 11
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 7
Lettermen Returning: 51
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -8.5 (#96 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -11.2 (#106 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 27 (#98 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 37.25 (#78 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 4-8, 9-27 (25%)
Overall ATS: 6-4, 15-17 (47%)
at Home ATS: 2-1, 5-7 (42%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-3, 10-10 (50%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-3, 9-13 (41%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-0, 2-5 (29%)
as Underdog ATS: 6-4, 13-12 (52%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 22.8 (86) - 31.3 (97)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 366.2 (56) - 428.5 (107)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.58 (47) - 6.61 (116)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.66 (32) - 4.77 (98)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.71 (73) - 8.77 (117)
Turnover Differential: -0.08 (71)
2009 OUTLOOK: Alabama-Birmingham certainly didn"t make things easy on itself after falling into a hole and out of Conference USA East Division contention by losing six times in its first seven games. But this team showed some resolve under head coach Neil Callaway, picking up wins in three of its final five games and helping to avoid a second straight doubledigit loss season. The Blazers have had just one winning campaign since 2002, but with 18 starters returning, this should be a more competitive squad.
OFFENSE: In what equates to a rare instance in college football, UAB returns all 11 starters to the offense. The Blazers weren"t exactly a juggernaut, averaging just over 366 yards per game to finish seventh in C-USA, and scoring 22.8 points per game, good for eighth in the conference. Against C-USA defenses, UAB was more proficient running (168.9 yards per game, fourth in the conference) than passing (197.2, 10th). Senior quarterback Joe Webb is one of the more versatile players at his position in the conference, and he"s coming off a season in which he completed 208 of 353 passes for 2,367 yards and 10 touchdowns, but with a high rate of 16 interceptions. Not to be outdone, Webb also led the team with 1,021 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground. Senior running back Rashaud Slaughter was called on to tote the ball 113 times, picking up 514 yards and scoring four times. He also caught 29 passes. Although Webb has a good pair of wheels, he may be tempted to air it out more with so much experience returning at wide receiver in juniors Frantrell Forrest (42 catches, 536 yards, two scores) and Mario Wright (20 catches, 243 yards) and senior Mark Ferrell (13, 177). Two tight ends with capable hands include junior Jeff Anderson (23 catches, 368 yards, three touchdowns) and senior Zach Lankford (16 catches). Opening holes for Webb and protecting him in the pocket are junior tackle Terence Edge, sophomore tackle Greg Calhoun, junior guard Greg Bulls, senior guard Jared Koechner and senior center Jake Seitz.
DEFENSE: Although not as starter-heavy as the offense, the defense is not lacking for experience with seven starters returning. The Blazers allowed 429.9 yards and 31.2 points per game, ranking ninth and eighth, respectively, in the conference. UAB gave up 45 or more points four times (70 to Southern Miss) but then closed out the season by shutting out Central Florida. Experience is the name of the game on the line with the entire starting quartet returning in junior tackle D.J. Reese (31 tackles), sophomore nose tackle Nick Davison, senior end Anthony Barnes and junior end Bryant Turner (four sacks). Two players who saw starting time at linebacker include junior Keon Harris (47 stops) and sophomore Lamanski Ware. Senior B.J. Steed and sophomore Drew Luker also saw plenty of action as reserves. The secondary is where the Blazers have some serious holes to fill, with three starters having departed, the biggest of whom was cornerback Kevin Sanders (seven interceptions). Sophomore cornerback Terrell Springs (32 tackles) is the lone returning starter, but sophomore strong safety Chase Daniel (47 tackles, two picks) had a solid season.
PREDICTION: Utilizing Webb"s skills as a runner and passer is a given, but if Slaughter can add some production to the ground game, it would help open things up through the air for the Blazers and Webb"s stable of experienced wideouts. The secondary will be a concern early in the season, as is the loss of Waters. If all goes well, the Blazers may pocket six victories.
CENTRAL FLORIDA KNIGHTS
Where: Orlando, FL
Head Coach: George O"Leary, 4th year
2008 Record: 4-8 SU, 6-5 ATS
Facility: Bright House Networks Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 10
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Lettermen Returning: 44
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -7.5 (#94 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -9.8 (#103 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 33 (#80 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 35.92 (#86 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 4-8, 18-20 (47%)
Overall ATS: 6-5, 17-18 (49%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 10-8 (56%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 7-10 (41%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 13-11 (54%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-2, 7-9 (44%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-3, 10-9 (53%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 16.6 (114) - 24.1 (55)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 229.5 (120) - 334.3 (43)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 3.62 (120) - 4.74 (22)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3 (109) - 3.39 (22)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 4.53 (119) - 6.26 (31)
Turnover Differential: +0.08 (57)
2009 OUTLOOK: The Central Florida football program has followed a pattern in head coach George O"Leary"s first five seasons on the sideline. The Knights have alternated having bad seasons with good ones. So perhaps the outlook for 2009 is promising, considering that UCF had losing streaks of three and four games a year ago and finished up with eight losses. That was a big letdown from 2007, when the Knights defeated Tulsa in the Conference USA Championship Game and had 10 victories.
OFFENSE: Just one year removed from leading C-USA in rushing and averaging just under 36 points per game, the offense came tumbling back to the pack, as the Knights finished dead last in the conference in total offense with a paltry 229.5 yards per game. The running attack, which sorely missed Kevin Smith, totaled just 1,359 yards, or 1,928 yards fewer. Passing the ball proved to be no better, with the Knights" average of just over 116 yards per game also placing last in C-USA, as was their scoring average of 16.6 points per game. Trying to pick up the pieces will be sophomore quarterback Rob Calabrese, who completed only 39.4 percent of his 165 pass attempts for 664 yards, seven touchdowns and five interceptions. Calabrese will obviously have to show some improvement throwing the ball to hang on to his job. A pair of sophomore tailbacks who were the top two ground gainers are back in Brynn Harvey (519 yards, 4.2 yards per carry) and Ronnie Weaver (348 yards), and they should help give the running game some juice. One of two redshirt freshmen, Brendan Kelly or Billy Giovanetti, will line up at fullback. The receiving corps promises to be deep with juniors Brian Watters (team-high 42 receptions, 594 yards, three scores) and Kamar Aiken (20 catches) being joined by senior Rocky Ross and junior A.J. Guyton, with the latter two having missed large chunks of last season with injuries. Sophomore Adam Nissley returns at tight end. The offensive interior was very green but returns as an experienced group, led by senior center Ian Bustillo, junior tackle Jah Reid and sophomore tackle Nick Pieschel.
DEFENSE: The defense was nowhere near the disaster that the offense was, and in fact the Knights held six of their opponents to 17 points or fewer, but they were beaten in three of those games. The rush defense paced CUSA, giving up just 126.1 yards per game, and the unit tied for second in scoring defense (24.1 points per game) and was also second in total defense (333.8 yards per game). Six starters have returned to build off last season"s excellent effort. The interior has three returning starters in senior tackle Torrell Troup (52 tackles, 12.5 for loss), senior end Jarvis Geathers (35 tackles, 9.5 for loss, 5.5 sacks) and junior end Bruce Miller (52, 17, 7). Senior Chance Henderson (57 stops, 8.5 for loss, 3.5 sacks) sets the tone for the linebacking unit from the middle, and is supported by junior Lawrence Young (72 tackles, 10.5 for loss). Adding depth to the trio will be two returning injured players, both seniors, Cory Hogue and Jordan Richards. The secondary was decimated with the departure of all four starters, including safeties Jason Venson and Sha"reff Rashad. Junior free safety Derrick Hallman (57 tackles, eight for loss) is the most seasoned returnee.
PREDICTION: Combine an inexperienced offensive line with a first-year quarterback, and add in the loss of a game-breaking tailback, and you have the struggling Central Florida offense from last season. The offensive production should, and must, improve with the returning starters now boasting game experience. The Knights have the look of a five- or six-win team.
WEST DIVISION
HOUSTON COUGARS
Where: Houston, TX
Head Coach: Kevin Sumlin, 2nd year
2008 Record: 8-5 SU, 5-7 ATS
Facility: Robertson Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 6
Lettermen Returning: 41
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +9.7 (#25 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +5.1 (#41 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 41 (#53 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 36.00 (#85 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 8-5, 26-14 (65%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 17-20 (46%)
at Home ATS: 3-1, 10-6 (63%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-6, 7-14 (33%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 12-13 (48%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-6, 12-15 (44%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-1, 5-5 (50%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 40.6 (10) - 30.9 (92)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 562.8 (2) - 413.5 (101)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 7.21 (2) - 5.56 (79)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 5.16 (13) - 4.16 (79)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.58 (10) - 7.39 (89)
Turnover Differential: -0.46 (88)
2009 OUTLOOK: Playing under new head coach Kevin Sumlin, the Cougars put together their second straight 8-5 campaign, and they saved the best for last with a 34-28 triumph over Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl, snapping the school"s eight-game bowl losing streak. Paced by a high-powered passing attack, the Cougars scored 41 or more points eight times.
OFFENSE: For the second consecutive season, Houston was second in Conference USA in total offense, averaging 562.8 yards per game, a number boosted by a conferencebest 401.6 yards per game through the air. Both the total offense and passing totals helped Houston finish second in the country in both categories. Eight starters return, so the Cougars should continue to crank out the points, coming off a season in which they scored 528 (second-highest in school annals). Junior quarterback Case Keenum, the Conference USA Freshman of the Year two years ago, made a huge leap in performance by leading the nation in individual total offense, accounting for 403.2 yards per game. Keenum, the C-USA Offensive Player of the Year, became the second quarterback in school history, along with David Klingler, to throw for more than 5,000 yards in a season, finishing with 5,020 after completing 397 of 589 pass attempts with 44 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions. He also ran for 221 yards and seven scores. Running back Bryce Beall followed in Keenum"s footsteps and won C-USA Freshman of the Year honors after recording six 100-yard games and placing third in the league in rushing yards (1,247) and second in rushing touchdowns (13). He also caught 34 passes for 496 yards and four scores. Leading receiver Mark Hafner (86 catches) has moved on, but three other starting wideouts return to the team"s four-receiver set—sophomores Tyrone Carrier (80 catches, 1,026 yards, nine touchdowns) and Patrick Edwards (46, 634, 4) and senior Chaz Rodriguez (40 catches, 418 yards). Adding further depth are juniors Kierrie Johnson (five touchdowns) and L.J. Castille (31 catches, 531 yards, eight scores). Senior center Carl Barnett, junior guard Jordan Shoemaker and sophomore tackle Chris Thompson return as starters up front.
DEFENSE: After leading Conference USA in total defense (365 yards per game) in 2007, the Cougars dropped back down to seventh in the conference (413.5). The loss of end Phillip Hunt (18.5 tackles for loss, 14 sacks), the C-USA Defensive Player of the Year, can"t be underestimated. In fact, the team"s three other starters on the line also departed. That leaves senior end Tyrell Graham, sophomore end Mohammed Usman, junior nose tackle Isaiah Thompson (32 tackles) and sophomore tackle David Hunter to plug the huge holes. Two of Houston"s three starting linebackers return to lend some experience to the defensive unit, including senior C.J. Cavness (77 stops) and sophomore Marcus McGraw (team-high 103 tackles, 6.5 for loss). Senior Matt Nicholson (66 stops), who made nine starts, is also back on the depth chart. Both starting safeties (Kenneth Fontenette and Ernest Miller) from a year ago are gone, but Sumlin will be able fall back on experience at cornerback with senior Brandon Brinkley (15 pass breakups, four interceptions) and junior Loyce Means (four picks). Sophomores Nick Saenz and Ryan Tennison will look to take over at free and strong safety, respectively.
PREDICTION: Houston"s nearly unstoppable passing game has been shredding CUSA defenses for quite some time. Add Beall"s rushing into the mix, and the Cougars make life tough on opposing defensive coordinators. The defensive line has some major holes to fill, but with Keenum filling the air with footballs, Houston will be looking for a second straight bowl victory.
RICE OWLS
Where: Houston, TX
Head Coach: David Bailiff, 3rd year
2008 Record: 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS
Facility: Rice Stadium
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 4
Defense: 4-2-5 - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 49
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +8 (#26 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +6.5 (#34 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 35 (#72 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 38.75 (#67 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 10-3, 20-18 (53%)
Overall ATS: 9-4, 23-14 (62%)
at Home ATS: 5-1, 11-5 (69%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-3, 12-9 (57%)
vs Conference ATS: 7-1, 19-5 (79%)
as Favorite ATS: 9-1, 9-5 (64%)
as Underdog ATS: 0-3, 14-9 (61%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 41.3 (8) - 33.3 (104)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 470.9 (10) - 452.2 (113)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.34 (18) - 6.26 (108)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.16 (60) - 5.15 (105)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.24 (16) - 7.33 (86)
Turnover Differential: +1.15 (7)
2009 OUTLOOK: The 2008 campaign was one in which just about everything clicked for Rice. By closing the season on a seven-game winning streak, with the last of those victories a 38-14 decision over Western Michigan in the Texas Bowl, the Owls posted their most wins (10) in a season since 1949 as head coach David Bailiff, just one year removed from a 3-9 record, led his squad to the biggest turnaround of any team in the nation. With the departure of seven offensive starters, however, the Owls won"t be flying as high in 2009.
OFFENSE: After hanging 56 points on SMU in the season opener, the Rice offense was off to the races, averaging 470.9 yards per game and finishing as the second-highest scoring team in Conference USA, averaging 41.3 points per game. The Owls were also second overall in C-USA in passing, producing 327.2 yards per game. The bad news is that the loss of those seven starters has taken away 97 percent of the team"s passing yardage, 93 percent of its rushing yardage and 64 percent of its receiving yardage. The biggest hit is the loss of quarterback Chase Clement, who over the past two seasons threw for over 7,400 yards and 73 touchdowns and ran for another 1,200-plus yards and 20 scores. Junior John Thomas Shepherd, who has made one career start, will be Clement"s replacement. Rice"s rushing attack also took a severe hit with the loss of C.J. Ugokwe, who helped keep opposing defenses honest by picking up 809 yards. The tailback spot is now in the hands of sophomore Tyler Smith, who didn"t have any carries last year but stood out in spring drills. The receiving corps will miss tight end James Casey (111 catches, 1,329 yards, 13 touchdowns), as well as wideout Jarett Dillard (87, 1,310, 20), but at least there"s still some experience on hand with seniors Toren Dixon (50, 598, 5) and Corbin Smiter (30, 487, 3). In order to help Shepherd get settled in as a starter the play of the line will be critical. Leading the way are junior Scott Mitchell, a returning starter at tackle, sophomore guard Jake Hicks, a starter at tackle in 2008, and sophomore tackle Tyler Parish.
DEFENSE: The top nine tacklers and eight starters return for the Owls, but it may all be relative because this unit has been one of the weakest in C-USA for the past four seasons. Rice was ninth out of 12 teams in total defense (452.2 yards per game) and eighth overall in scoring defense, surrendering 33.3 points per game. With all of the offensive firepower now missing, Rice"s defense will be under pressure to perform better. Starting ends Scott Solomon (40 tackles, nine for loss, 4.5 sacks) and Cheta Ozougwu (40, 6, 3.5) are a capable pair up front with senior tackle Chance Talbert and sophomore tackle John Gioffre completing the foursome. Senior linebacker Terrance Garmon was third on the team with 66 stops, including seven for loss, and he"ll play alongside either sophomore Tanner Shuck or senior Robert Calhoun. Senior free safety Andrew Sendejo, the glue of the defense, has been in on 201 tackles and picked off eight passes over the past two seasons. Junior strong safety Chris Jones recorded 59 tackles last year. Those two are supported by sophomore corners Travis Bradshaw (89 tackles), Chris Jammer and Jarrett Ben.
PREDICTION: Three straight non-conference games in the month of September against Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Vanderbilt will test the Owls" mettle. Unless Rice shows considerable improvement on defense, it won"t be able to win another five high-scoring shootouts like it did last year. It"s looking like a five-win season for the Owls.
SMU MUSTANGS
Where: Dallas, TX
Head Coach: June Jones, 2nd year
2008 Record: 1-11 SU, 3-7 ATS
Facility: Gerald Ford Stadium
Offense: Run-and-Shoot - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 51
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -16.8 (#114 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -13 (#111 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 22 (#112 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 34.33 (#97 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 1-11, 8-28 (22%)
Overall ATS: 3-7, 13-20 (39%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 6-10 (38%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 1-4, 7-10 (41%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 11-13 (46%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-1, 4-7 (36%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-6, 9-13 (41%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 21.3 (93) - 38.2 (116)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 314.3 (98) - 479.5 (119)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.44 (58) - 6.48 (111)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 2.29 (119) - 4.94 (101)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.88 (63) - 8.96 (120)
Turnover Differential: -1.08 (115)
2009 OUTLOOK: SMU is coming off the worst two-season stretch in school history, with it having dropped 22 of its last 24 games. That makes it 11 straight seasons that the Mustangs have been at or below the .500 mark. But hope may be on the horizon with a good blend of youth and veterans back, June Jones entering his second year as head coach, and with the offense now fully indoctrinated in the intricacies of the Run-and-Shoot attack. That should help the Ponies pick up their first Conference USA win since 2006.
OFFENSE: The starting quarterback and top four receivers are back, leading to a more potent attack than the Mustangs displayed last season. While the Run-and-Shoot produced 272.9 yards per game through the air to rank fifth in C-USA, the running game was neglected (just 41.4 yards per game) and was the weakest in the conference, dragging the total offense numbers down to 314.4 yards per game, the second-lowest mark among the league"s 12 teams. SMU was held to 12 points or fewer in five games, averaging just over 21 points per game. Sophomore quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell returns a year older and smarter after playing in 12 games, and he should be more poised as the triggerman. As a first-year starter he completed 236 of 410 passes for 2,865 yards, 24 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. Mitchell"s top four receiving targets return as a group, and they include senior Emmanuel Sanders (67 catches, 958 yards, nine touchdowns), junior Aldrick Robinson (59, 1,047, 11) and the sophomore duo of Cole Beasley (42, 366, 3) and Terrance Wilkerson (24, 233, 2). Sanders averaged 14.3 yards per reception and Robinson added a robust 17.7. Leading rusher Andrew McKinney, who had only 190 yards on 46 carries, has moved on, so junior Chris Butler (174 yards, 5.3-yard average) will line up as the lone running back. Three starters return to the line, where the No. 1 job will be protecting Mitchell in the pocket. The group includes a trio of sophomores in center Blake McJunkin, tackle Kelvin Beachum and guard Bryce Tennison.
DEFENSE: The Mustangs have been nothing less than horrid on defense over the past two seasons, but the 2008 unit just may have hit rockbottom, finishing dead last in CUSA in turnovers and total (479.5 yards per game), scoring (38.2 points per game), rushing (225.6 yards per game) and pass defense (3,047 yards, 33 touchdowns). It"s highly improbable the defense will be that porous again, especially with eight starters back to stop the bleeding. The entire secondary is returning intact, led by a pair of senior safeties in Rock Dennis (53 stops, six pass breakups) and Bryan Mc- Cann (three interceptions). Filling the cornerback slots are sophomore Chris Banjo (61 tackles) and junior Derrius Bell (53 tackles, nine pass breakups). Three of the four starting linebackers are also returning, helping make this position a strength. The three, all juniors, are Pete Fleps (team-high 106 tackles, 6.5 for loss), Justin Smart (74 stops) and Youri Yenga (73 tackles, 10.5 for loss, team-high 6.5 sacks), who is moving over from end. Senior Chase Kennemer rounds out the quartet. The only starting returnee on the line is sophomore end Taylor Thompson, and he"ll line up next to junior nose tackle Chris Parham and end Marquis Frazier, a junior-college transfer.
PREDICTION: With SMU"s returning offensive players having a better understanding of the playbook, the numbers should start to climb, and being held to a single touchdown in three games should not happen again. If the offensive line meshes and gives Mitchell time to throw, the Mustangs will surely increase their victory output.
TULANE GREEN WAVE
Where: New Orleans, LA
Head Coach: Bob Toledo, 3rd year
2008 Record: 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS
Facility: Superdome
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Lettermen Returning: 53
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -17.8 (#115 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -16.5 (#114 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 14 (#118 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 36.42 (#81 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 2-10, 10-26 (28%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 14-20 (41%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 6-10 (38%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 8-10 (44%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-6, 6-17 (26%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-4, 2-5 (29%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-3, 12-15 (44%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 16.7 (113) - 34.5 (108)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 339.7 (80) - 391.3 (85)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.04 (85) - 6.25 (107)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.56 (92) - 5.66 (117)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.49 (78) - 7.2 (82)
Turnover Differential: -0.42 (86)
2009 OUTLOOK: Following Tulane"s 34-27 win over SMU in late September the Green Wave evened their record at 2-2. Then the bottom fell out and Tulane closed the season with eight straight losses, with all but one of those defeats ending in a rout. Needless to say the program entered the offseason in a state of shock. Head coach Bob Toledo and his squad open in New Orleans against Tulsa, a team that hammered the Green Wave, 56-7. If Tulane can hang tough in that matchup, it may lead to a change of fortune.
OFFENSE: Only once over its last five games did the Tulane offense put up more than 14 points, and that sluggishness held the season scoring average down to just 16.7 points per game, second from the bottom in Conference USA. The Green Wave also placed in the bottom quarter of C-USA teams in total offense by averaging 339.7 yards per game, with the running attack averaging just 118.4. Junior Kevin Moore returns at quarterback after starting every game and tossing for 2,194 yards with a mediocre touchdown-tointerception ratio of 8-to-13. Moore will have to do a better job limiting turnovers in order for the offense to take a step forward, and with a year of starting experience to fall back on, that goal could be within reach. The loss of Matt Forte in the backfield after the 2007 campaign did a number on the Tulane ground game, but senior running back Andre Anderson is poised to have a big season after turning 174 carries into 864 yards and seven touchdowns, while also pulling in 25 passes. Sophomore running back Nathan Austin should expand his role in the offense, while 240-pound sophomore fullback Kasey Stelly will provide blocking assistance. Lining up at wideout are senior Jeremy Williams (27 grabs, 437 yards, five touchdowns) and junior Casey Robottom (16 catches, 203 yards). Junior Cody Sparks (20, 245) is the tight end. A trio of starters return in Tulane"s interior— senior guard Nick Landry, junior guard Andrew Nierman and junior tackle Pete Hendrickson.
DEFENSE: In six of Tulane"s 10 losses, the defense surrendered 41 points or more and this unit was ranked ninth in C-USA in points allowed, giving up 34.5 per game. Against the rush the Green Wave allowed an average of 218.4 yards per game and the 17 turnovers they created ranked as the fewest of any team in the conference. Strangely enough, Tulane placed sixth in total defense (391.2 yards per game). A pair of seniors return to their starting spots at end—Adam Kwentua (48 tackles) and Reggie Scott (two sacks). Senior end Logan Kelley (seven tackles for loss, seven sacks) has a knack for getting to the quarterback. Juniors Justin Adams and Tony Bryant and sophomore Cedric Wilson will vie for playing time at tackle. Linebackers Evan Lee and Devin Holland have moved on, so the only starter remaining from last year"s trio is senior David Kirksey (41 tackles). Senior Travis Burks made three starts and will now move into full-time status, while sophomores Kristofar Rhymes and Sule Osagiede will compete for playing time. The secondary should be the most stable part of the defense with senior safeties Corey Sonnier (86 stops) and Chinonso Echeblem (47) and senior cornerback Charles Harris (nine pass breakups) back on the field.
PREDICTION: Tulane has lost 35 of its last 47 games and has not gone bowling since 2002. The Green Wave were barely competitive over the last six games and in order for this program to move back in a positive direction, the offense is going to have to make big strides. Four or five victories may be the max in 2009.
TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE
Where: Tulsa, OK
Head Coach: Todd Graham, 3rd year
2008 Record: 11-3 SU, 8-5 ATS
Facility: Chapman Stadium
Offense: Spread No-Huddle - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 3-3-5 - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 39
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +19.3 (#9 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +12.6 (#18 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 47 (#33 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 37.75 (#75 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 11-3, 29-12 (71%)
Overall ATS: 8-5, 19-20 (49%)
at Home ATS: 5-1, 10-7 (59%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-4, 9-13 (41%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-4, 11-15 (42%)
as Favorite ATS: 8-5, 16-15 (52%)
as Underdog ATS: 0-0, 3-5 (38%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 47.2 (2) - 27.9 (76)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 569.9 (1) - 379.1 (75)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 7.27 (1) - 5.74 (91)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 5.57 (5) - 3.82 (50)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 9.99 (1) - 7.75 (100)
Turnover Differential: -0.36 (85)
2009 OUTLOOK: It"s been quite a ride for head coach Todd Graham and the Tulsa football program over the past two years, with the Golden Hurricane having posted consecutive double-digit victory seasons for the first time ever. A year ago, Tulsa registered the first 11-win season in school history and played in a fourth straight bowl game, downing Ball State (45- 13) in the GMAC Bowl. The only two blemishes were a 40-point road loss at Houston and a 27-24 setback against East Carolina in the Conference USA Championship Game.
OFFENSE: For the second straight season, Tulsa (school-record 661 points) paced the conference in scoring (47.2 points per game), ranking second in the country in total offense (569.9 yards per game). The Golden Hurricane racked up 3,752 yards on the ground and placed third in C-USA in passing offense (301.9 yards per game). One of the key elements missing from last year"s high-powered offense is quarterback David Johnson, who threw for over 4,000 yards and 46 touchdowns. Three players will battle it out to replace Johnson—junior Jacob Bower, sophomore G.J. Kinne and freshman prospect Shavodrick Beaver. Johnson wasn"t the only loss in the backfield— also gone is running back Tarrion Adams, who accounted for 1,523 yards on the ground and 14 scores. Junior Jamad Williams (86 carries, 536 yards, three scores) and redshirt freshman Willie Carter will be the primary ball carriers with junior fullback Charles Clay pitching in on occasion. One big plus the new starting quarterback will have is the presence of three starting receivers— sophomore Damaris Johnson (53 catches, 743 yards, 10 touchdowns), senior Slick Shelley (39, 627, 8) and junior Trae Johnson (20, 475, 3). Senior tight end Jake Collums caught five touchdown passes and Clay corralled 38 passes, including nine scores, out of the backfield. The departure of three starters on the line will cause some shuffling, but senior guard Curt Puckett and sophomore tackle Tyler Holmes are back. Sophomore Clint Anderson will fill the other guard slot and junior Jon Bell will take over at center.
DEFENSE: Aside from the 70 points that Tulsa allowed in the aforementioned loss to Houston, the Golden Hurricane put in a respectable effort on this side of the ball, finishing sixth in C-USA in scoring defense (27.9 points per game) and fifth in total defense (379.1 yards per game). Tulsa was particularly good against the run, allowing 129.5 yards per game, the second-best mark in the conference. With eight starters back, the Golden Hurricane should improve those numbers. Four members of the secondary who earned starting nods a year ago are returning to their respective positions, including three seniors—bandit James Lockett (82 tackles, 16.5 for loss, 8.5 sacks), free safety Charles Davis (78 stops, two picks) and cornerback Kenny D. Sims (eight pass breakups). Sophomore John Flanders assumes the other corner spot. Linebacker is also a position deep in experience, with the starting trio back—seniors Mike Bryan (team-high 119 tackles, 10.5 for loss, four sacks) and George Clinkscale (53, 6, 2) and junior Tanner Antle (63, 7.5, 4.5). Senior Wilson Garrison (53 stops, 6.5 for loss, 2.5 sacks) is the lone returning starter on the three-man front, and he can line up at either nose guard or end. Senior end Un"Tavious Scott (four sacks) and junior end Odrick Ray are other potential starters.
PREDICTION: C-USA defenses haven"t had an answer for Tulsa"s offense the past two seasons. If a consistent quarterback can be found, Tulsa will continue to light up the scoreboard. Throw in a defense that should improve its performance and Tulsa can punch its return ticket to the Conference USA Championship Game.
UTEP MINERS
Where: El Paso, TX
Head Coach: Mike Price, 6th year
2008 Record: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS
Facility: Sun Bowl
Offense: One-Back - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 3-3-5 - Starters Returning: 7
Lettermen Returning: 55
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -4.1 (#86 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -2.7 (#74 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 29 (#91 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 36.50 (#80 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 5-7, 14-22 (39%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 16-19 (46%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 7-10 (41%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 9-9 (50%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 11-13 (46%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-2, 2-10 (17%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-5, 14-9 (61%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 32.9 (25) - 37 (113)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 406.5 (31) - 469.8 (116)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.96 (26) - 6.6 (115)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.96 (68) - 5.16 (106)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.61 (32) - 8.32 (115)
Turnover Differential: +1 (12)
2009 OUTLOOK: When Mike Price arrived as head coach at UTEP in 2004, he enjoyed some early success with the Miners, guiding them to backto- back 8-4 seasons and a pair of bowl berths. Things have not gone as smoothly for UTEP over the past few seasons, however, with the Miners having compiled three straight sub-.500 campaigns. Last year the Miners opened with three straight non-conference losses and then closed out with four setbacks in their last six games. Price has a healthy complement (15) of starters returning, but September matchups with Kansas and Texas will test his squad"s mettle.
OFFENSE: Paced by a productive passing attack, which accounted for 284.2 yards per game, the Miners finished sixth in Conference USA in total offense (406.5 yards per game). UTEP also scored at a pretty good clip, putting up an average of 32.9 points per game, the fourth-best mark in C-USA. Lagging behind was the ground game (122 yards per game). The passing attack should remain productive, with all of the key players returning, the most important being junior quarterback Trevor Vittatoe, who followed up an excellent freshman season by throwing for 3,274 yards and 33 touchdowns, while only being intercepted nine times in 418 pass attempts. Vittatoe"s top two targets, senior Jeff Moturi (51 catches, 655 yards, nine touchdowns) and junior Kris Adams (50, 958, 14), are back to line up at their respective receiver spots, but tight end Jamar Hunt (31 grabs) must be replaced. Junior Jonny Moore is expected to take over for Hunt, while senior Tufick Shadrawy (20 catches, 284 yards) will be the third starting wideout. Tailback Terrell Jackson, who picked up 451 yards on the ground and caught another 23 passes, has departed. Junior Donald Buckram, who rushed for 348 yards and two touchdowns, will step into Jackson"s spot in the backfield with sophomores Daniel Palmer and Vernon Frazier adding depth. Providing protection for Vittatoe will be a veteran offensive front that returns four starters in senior guard Cameron Raschke, senior tackle Mike Aguayo, junior guard Rob Huntley and junior tackle Alex Solot.
DEFENSE: The Miners made a marginal improvement on defense after switching from a 4-3 to a 3-3-5 alignment, but they were still one of the weaker units in Conference USA, surrendering 468.9 yards and 37 points per game, ranking ahead of only SMU in both categories. UTEP"s 60 touchdowns allowed were the most in the conference and the unit allowed 42 or more points six times. The three-man defensive front will be manned by two returning starters in senior nose tackle Steve Riddick (32 stops) and junior end Robert Soleyjacks and senior end Aaron King, a reserve last season. Two starting linebackers have moved on, including leading tackler Adam Vincent (110 stops), which is a tough blow. Junior Anthony Morrow (44) is the lone returnee as a starter and he will play alongside senior Brian Wilkins and sophomore Royzell Smith. The situation in the five-man secondary is much better, with four starters back. They include senior cornerbacks Melvin Stephenson (38 tackles, two picks) and Cornelius Brown (29, 3), senior safety Da"Mon Cromartie- Smith (77, 2) and junior rover Braxton Amy, who is coming off a knee injury. Sophomore Nick Sampson will be the other safety.
PREDICTION: It has been 42 years since the Miners last emerged with a bowl victory (beating Mississippi in the 1967 Sun Bowl). Unless the defense shows marked improvement in all areas, that streak will remain. Vittatoe and his wideouts will help put points on the board but the big challenge will be to prevent opponents from doing likewise.
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