If the Big Ten figures to be ruled once again by Penn State and Ohio State, Joe Paterno"s squad could bear a slight edge over the Buckeyes, who must visit Happy Valley in November. Most experts, including those setting the futures prices at Sportsbook.com, figure it will be a two-team race in the Big Ten this season. Sure, Iowa, Michigan State, and Illinois are being acknowledged as potential underdog winners, but in reality, the conference title game figures to be in that key November 7th contest. Read on for more about the Big Ten in 2009, including one humble man"s opinion on who will claim the conference crown.
Penn State features pass-run threat Daryll Clark, terrific tailback Evan Royster and a loaded linebacking corps. Ohio State counters with budding star quarterback Terrelle Pryor and two of the league"s best defensive linemen in Cameron Heyward and Lawrence Wilson. There"s an interesting chase group behind Penn State and Ohio State, led by Iowa (which has a strong defense, but must travel to Penn State) and Michigan State (where Mark Dantonio has serious offensive questions, but possesses a stout defense, led by lineman Trevor Anderson and linebacker Greg Jones). With signal-caller Juice Williams (324.3 yards per game) and wideout Arrelious Benn (67 receptions) both back, Illinois should score points in bunches, but will struggle to stop foes. Northwestern brings back eight starters on defense as well as four-fifths of the offensive line, but the skill position players must be replaced. Michigan"s Rich Rodriguez addressed the issues at quarterback in recruiting and hired Greg Robinson to fix his leaky defense. Those moves should help the Wolverines reach a second-tier bowl. Wisconsin is as talented as last year"s 7-6 team, but there are some nice pieces in place-—a powerful offensive line, a nice stable of backs, strong special teams—-but ultimately quarterback Dustin Scherer must make some plays to beat quality foes. Back to light up scoreboards throughout the Big Ten is the lethal combo of Minnesota"s junior quarterback Adam Weber and senior wide receiver Eric Decker, but the defense has question marks.
2009 PREDICTED FINISH
1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Iowa
4. Michigan State
5. Illinois
6. Michigan
7. Wisconsin
8. Minnesota
9. Northwestern
10. Purdue
11. Indiana
Sportsbook.com Odds to Win the Big Ten Title in 2009
Illinois: +600
Indiana: +5000
Iowa: +500
Michigan: +1000
Michigan State: +500
Minnesota: +2000
Northwestern: +2000
Ohio State: +150
Penn State: +250
Purdue: +5000
Wisconsin: +800
StatFox Steve"s Take: Like most, I believe the Big Ten will come down to Penn State and Ohio State. However, unlike anyone who gives the Nittany Lions the edge due to the fact that they host the head-to-head game in November, I will side with the Buckeyes. In my opinion, they boast the most talented player in the conference in QB Terrelle Pryor, who will break out this season, plus they have more returning starters on defense, and face an easier road schedule in conference play. I wouldn"t dismiss Michigan State though, as the Spartans have 16 starters back from the 9-4 team of "08, plus don"t have to face the Buckeyes.
ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
Where: Champaign, IL
Head Coach: Ron Zook, 5th year
2008 Record: 5-7 SU, 4-7 ATS
Facility: Memorial Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Lettermen Returning: 46
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +2.1 (#56 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +4.7 (#43 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 45 (#41 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 42.67 (#44 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 5-7, 16-21 (43%)
Overall ATS: 4-7, 16-18 (47%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 7-9 (44%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 9-9 (50%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 15-9 (63%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-5, 7-12 (37%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-2, 9-6 (60%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 28.7 (40) - 26.6 (67)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 438.8 (19) - 350.3 (56)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.17 (21) - 5.22 (58)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.42 (47) - 3.95 (62)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.22 (17) - 6.93 (66)
Turnover Differential: -0.5 (89)
2009 OUTLOOK: Illinois" status as a Big Ten elite program proved to be as fleeting as Amy Winehouse"s sobriety as the Illini fell from a 9-4 Rose Bowl season in 2007 to a 5-7 mark. After that clunker of a season, head coach Ron Zook"s team worked extremely hard this offseason in hopes of regaining its killer instinct. There"s enough talent here to move back up the Big Ten charts, but Zook must rebuild the front seven and replace terrific cornerback Vontae Davis, the No. 25 pick of the NFL draft by the Miami Dolphins.
OFFENSE: In senior quarterback Juice Williams, Illinois has one of the most feared weapons in the Big Ten. He"ll likely leave Champaign as not only the school"s all-time leading passer, but also as one of the Fighting Illini"s top half-dozen all-time leading rushers. Last season, his 324.3 total yards per game were 82.3 yards per contest better than the next best Big Ten player. He"s not the only big-time playmaker in the Illini"s offensive huddle. Junior Arrelious Benn caught 67 balls for 1,055 yards and three scores and seems poised to become the third straight Illinois star to leave a year early for the NFL, following tailback Rashard Mendenhall and Davis, a former high school teammate of Benn"s. Illinois" other good-hands people include Jeff Cumberland, junior Jarred Fayson (Florida transfer) and sophomore Patrick Ramsey, who had academic issues in 2008 Zook will split the carries among three different tailbacks in his one-back set—senior Daniel Dufrene, who was slowed by a sore hamstring in spring ball, and much-improved sophomores Mikel LeShoure and Jason Ford, who both dropped around 15 pounds and are noticeably fleeter. The offensive line has holes to fill with Xavier Fulton, a fifth-round pick of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and center Ryan McDonald, a former four-year starter at center, both gone. But three starters return—guard/center Eric Block, all-league-caliber right guard Jon Asamoah and right tackle Jeff Allen.
DEFENSE: Zook"s first order of business is reconstructing the front seven, so that Williams isn"t forced to lead the Illini to 37-34 shootout wins each week. Gone from last year"s unit are middle linebacker Brit Miller (Big Ten leader in tackles) and three key cogs in the defensive line—most notably, Will Davis, a sixth-round pick of the Arizona Cardinals. Only one starting linebacker, junior Martez Wilson (73 tackles), returns and he"ll probably replace Miller in the middle. Promising sophomores Russell Ellington and Ian Thomas are battling with junior-college transfer Aaron Gress and converted safety Nate Bussey to start alongside Wilson. The retooled linebacking corps will operate behind a pretty inexperienced front four. Four-year starting defensive end Doug Pitcher (21 stops) is back and tackles Josh Brent (34) and Corey Liuget (26) have game experience, but behind them are mostly unproven underclassmen. While Davis is now a pro, the secondary still looks like an area of strength as senior cornerback Dere Hicks (43 tackles), senior safety Donsay Hardeman (44) and sophomore safety Travon Bellamy (53) have all been through the Big Ten wars.
PREDICTION: The Fighting Illini will be a bowl team again—after a one-year hiatus. The Williams and Benn-led offense will score points by the bushel, but ultimately how high the Illini rise in the Big Ten standings will be determined by the defense. If the stop unit completely comes together, then a third-place finish is possible. If not, a middle-of-the-pack finish is in the cards for Illinois.
INDIANA HOOSIERS
Where: Bloomington, IN
Head Coach: Bill Lynch, 3rd year
2008 Record: 3-9 SU, 3-8 ATS
Facility: Memorial Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 9
Lettermen Returning: 50
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -13.6 (#110 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -12.6 (#108 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 26 (#101 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 43.25 (#34 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 3-9, 15-22 (41%)
Overall ATS: 3-8, 15-19 (44%)
at Home ATS: 2-5, 10-9 (53%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 1-3, 5-10 (33%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-6, 10-14 (42%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-2, 5-4 (56%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-6, 10-15 (40%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 20.5 (97) - 34.1 (107)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 346.3 (71) - 420.1 (104)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.29 (68) - 5.75 (92)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.58 (36) - 4.07 (72)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.16 (90) - 7.82 (104)
Turnover Differential: +0 (65)
2009 OUTLOOK: Following a 3-9 disaster last fall, Indiana head coach Bill Lynch is under the gun and he"s betting on “The Pistol” offense to turn things around. The offense, which Lynch picked up during an offseason visit to the University of Nevada, relies more on ball control than last year"s spread attack. Controlling the clock is a good idea, considering that Indiana was dead-last in the Big Ten Conference in scoring, passing and total defense.
OFFENSE: Ben Chappell, a junior with only three college starts, can make all the throws and has good size (6-3, 220), but he"s nearly as green as Al Gore. He passed for 1,001 yards and four touchdowns while sharing the job with Kellen Lewis—a run-pass threat who was moved to wide receiver during spring ball before eventually being dismissed from the team. The loss of Lewis figures to help and hinder Chappell at the same time, if that"s possible. It helps because Chappell won"t be constantly looking over his shoulder at Lewis (6,395 career yards, 16 school marks as a signal- caller). The loss of Lewis stings because the coaching staff envisioned him playing an Antwaan Randle El-type role. While Lewis" explosiveness won"t be easily replaced, Chappell has some up-and-comers to toss the ball to—namely, junior Terrance Taylor (29 catches) and sophomores Damario Belcher (25) and Tandon Doss (14). With Marcus Thigpen (631 rushing yards) gone, the Hoosiers will employ a runningback- by-committee approach with Bryan Payton, Darius Willis and Demetrius McCray all getting some work. Keep an eye on Willis, though. He redshirted last year, but was one of the school"s most highly decorated recruits in years when he signed in 2008. Injuries and ineffectiveness caused constant shuffling of the offensive line. This must end. For that to happen, guys like left tackle Rodger Saffold must stay healthy and junior right tackle James Brewer, who looks the part of an NFL lineman (6-8, 330), must put it all together.
DEFENSE: Defensive end Greg Middleton led the nation with 16 sacks as a sophomore in 2007, but his production plummeted to just four sacks last fall. If he rebounds, and 2008 first-team All-Big performer Jammie Kirlew (10.5 sacks) continues to develop, Indiana may have one of the best sets of ends in the Big Ten. Tackle Deonte Mack started nine games, but missed spring ball following hip surgery. The linebacking corps looks to be a strength as seniors Matt Mayberry (89 tackles, five sacks) and Will Patterson (55 tackles, despite missing three games due to injury) are proven commodities. They"ll be joined in the starting lineup by Tyler Replogle (38 stops). Indiana"s secondary has question marks. The two senior safeties, Austin Thomas (ankle and knee injuries) and Nick Polk (knee injury), both suffered season-ending injuries, but are expected back. Senior Ray Fisher, a productive wideout, has switched to cornerback. Fisher has added 13 pounds of muscle and could start alongside either sophomore Chris Adkins (54 tackles) or junior Richard Council (45).
PREDICTION: The Hoosiers should be better this time around, but so will a handful of Big Ten teams (i.e. Illinois, Michigan). The question is
IOWA HAWKEYES
Where: Iowa City, IA
Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz, 11th year
2008 Record: 9-4 SU, 8-4 ATS
Facility: Kinnick Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 49
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +17.3 (#10 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +14.7 (#14 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 51 (#26 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 40.08 (#61 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 9-4, 21-17 (55%)
Overall ATS: 8-4, 16-20 (44%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 7-11 (39%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-1, 9-9 (50%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 10-14 (42%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-3, 8-13 (38%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-1, 8-7 (53%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 30.3 (33) - 13 (5)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 370.7 (51) - 291.3 (12)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.79 (35) - 4.4 (8)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.79 (25) - 3.08 (11)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.38 (37) - 5.54 (6)
Turnover Differential: +0.62 (24)
2009 OUTLOOK: Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz"s team was nearly as hot as Megan Fox late last season. The Hawkeyes went 6-1 in their final seven games, including a 31-10 Outback Bowl thrashing of South Carolina. One of the last year"s centerpieces, All-America tailback Shonn Greene (1,850 yards rushing, 20 touchdowns), is now a New York Jet, so Ferentz needs new No. 1 tailback Jewel Hampton to step up his game—or risk taking a step backward in the Big Ten pecking order.
OFFENSE: Will there be life after Greene in Iowa City? Yes, there is, if Hampton is as ready for prime time as the Iowa coaches believe he is. He rushed for 463 yards and seven scores as Greene"s understudy and has the size and skill to rush for 1,200-plus yards this fall. The good news is that Hampton has lots of help. Junior quarterback Rick Stanzi was smooth with his reads and his throws throughout spring drills. He seems poised for a monster season after throwing for 1,956 yards, 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions as a first-year starter. Stanzi has a new favorite target in Marvin McNutt, a 6-4 converted quarterback who was a spring ball star—even outplaying Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who led the Hawkeyes in receptions (44) and receiving yards (639) last year. Ferentz has a gift for building Grade-A offensive lines and he"ll do it again. He has a pair of NFL prospects in bookend tackles Bryan Bulaga (6-6, 312) and Kyle Calloway (6-7, 317), but there"s a question or two inside. Fifth-year senior Rafael Eubanks has started 25 games, but lost his starting center spot. He"ll likely get it back this fall and junior Julian Vandervelde (15 career starts) figures to nab one of the guard slots.
DEFENSE: Gone are Mitch King and Matt Kroul, one of the most disruptive tackle tandems in the land, but this defense figures to be one of the Big Ten"s best yet again. Eight starters are back from a unit that ranked fifth nationally in scoring defense (13 points per game) and 12th in the nation in total yards (291.3 yards per game)—including playmakers at every tier. In juniors Christian Ballard and Adrian Clayborn, Iowa has a duo of defensive ends who figure to live in enemy backfields. During spring drills, junior Karl Klug and sophomore Mike Daniels laid claim to the two starting tackle spots. All three starting linebackers—led by allleague performer Pat Angerer—are back in Iowa City. Angerer was an absolute revelation in 2008. After recording just six total tackles during his first two seasons, Angerer made a team-high 107 stops. He"ll team with A.J. Edds (59 tackles) and Jeremiha Hunter (80) to form one of the nation"s top troikas of linebackers. During spring ball, Iowa defensive coordinator Norm Parker called Amari Spievey (68 tackles, four interceptions) the best cornerback that this Hawkeyes staff has had in its 11 years. He"ll be the lock-down corner that every great team needs. Ball-hawking safeties Brett Greenwood (68 stops) and Tyler Sash (53) also return—meaning that Iowa"s last line of defense will be quite strong.
PREDICTION: With the return of eight starters on defense, six on offense and the return of an all-conference punter, Iowa has the horses to be a top 20 team all season long and perhaps challenge Penn State and Ohio State for Big Ten Conference supremacy, if Hampton can replace most of Greene"s lost rushing yards. Call it another nine- or 10-win season in Iowa City and a trip to a January bowl of some sort.
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
Where: Ann Arbor, MI
Head Coach: Rich Rodriguez, 2nd year
2008 Record: 3-9 SU, 2-10 ATS
Facility: Michigan Stadium
Offense: Spread Option - Starters Returning: 10
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 5
Lettermen Returning: 51
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -8.7 (#97 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -5 (#85 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 40 (#60 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 41.50 (#51 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 3-9, 23-15 (61%)
Overall ATS: 2-10, 16-20 (44%)
at Home ATS: 1-6, 7-13 (35%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 1-4, 9-7 (56%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-6, 13-10 (57%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-6, 10-15 (40%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-4, 6-5 (55%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 20.3 (99) - 28.9 (85)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 290.8 (109) - 366.9 (67)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.41 (113) - 5.27 (61)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.91 (73) - 3.56 (29)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 5.08 (116) - 7.38 (88)
Turnover Differential: -0.83 (105)
2009 OUTLOOK: After last year"s 3-9 train wreck, the natives are restless in Ann Arbor and head coach Rich Rodriguez needs to get to a bowl—any bowl— to quiet them. To do so, new defensive coordinator Greg Robinson, who had great success as a second banana but struggled mightily as Syracuse"s head coach, must breathe new life into a unit that allowed a school-record 347 points last fall. Also, Rodriguez must settle on a quarterback.
OFFENSE: Michigan fans must experience an extreme case of that"s-the-girl-that-gotaway jealousy when they watch sophomore Terrelle Pryor start under center at their bitterest of rivals, Ohio State. Once he bolted from West Virginia to take the Michigan job, Rodriguez put all of his eggs in the Pryor basket recruiting-wise. However, Pryor, a perfect fit to run his offense, picked the Buckeyes instead. As a result, Rodriguez has options at quarterback— not the most experienced options, but options nonetheless. Steven Threet transferred to Arizona State, leaving junior Nick Sheridan (four starts) and a pair of welldecorated freshmen, Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson, to compete for the job. Sheridan suffered a small fracture in his right leg during spring ball, allowing Forcier, who enrolled in January 2009, to get even more spring snaps. Forcier displayed an air of almost cockiness and the smarts to pick up the offense quickly. He"ll start, unless Robinson, a home-run hitting threat who will arrive on campus in July and reminds Rodriguez of a young Pat White, who starred for him at West Virginia, beats him out. Whomever is under center has some weapons at his disposal and a senior-laden offensive line to operate behind. All three starting wideouts—sophomore Martavious Odom (49 catches), senior Greg Matthews (35) and sophomore Darryl Stonum (14)—return and the backfield is chock-full of runners, led by senior Brandon Minor (533 yards, nine touchdowns) and sophomore Michael Shaw (215 yards). In the trenches, fifth-year seniors David Moosnan at right guard and Tim McAvoy at left guard both figure to be 2010 NFL draft picks and senior right tackle Stephen Schilling might be as well.
DEFENSE: Robinson, a successful defensive coordinator at the college and NFL levels, has some pieces in place to build a stout stop unit. After having only one player on their entire roster taken in the first four rounds of the 2009 draft, the Maize and Blue feature playmakers at each level of their defense. Junior Donovan Warren (52 tackles) has the look of a possible late first-round 2010 NFL draft choice. Senior defensive end Brandon Graham (10 sacks, 20 tackles for loss) is on the NFL scouts" radar, too. The linebacking corps returns the team"s top two tacklers from a year ago, Obi Ezeh (98 stops) and Jonas Mouton (76), and will be an area of strength. In Robinson"s defense, the safeties play vital roles. Senior Stevie Brown (64 tackles) has the skill set to play the hybrid outside linebacker/strong safety spot, while redshirt freshman Brandon Smith (6-3, 211) hasn"t played college ball yet but is glowing with talent.
PREDICTION: Last season was Rodriguez"s mulligan. He addressed the issues at quarterback in recruiting and hired Robinson to fix his leaky stop unit. The Wolverines will still sputter on offense at times and are still a couple of recruiting classes away from challenging Penn State and Ohio State for Big Ten Conference supremacy, but they should win enough games to earn a second-tier bowl berth in 2009.
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
Where: East Lansing, MI
Head Coach: Mark Dantonio, 3rd year
2008 Record: 9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS
Facility: Spartan Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: Multiple 4-3 - Starters Returning: 9
Lettermen Returning: 45
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +3 (#51 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +6.5 (#33 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 44 (#43 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 41.75 (#50 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 9-4, 20-18 (53%)
Overall ATS: 6-7, 17-20 (46%)
at Home ATS: 3-4, 7-13 (35%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 10-7 (59%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 10-14 (42%)
as Favorite ATS: 6-7, 10-16 (38%)
as Underdog ATS: 0-0, 7-4 (64%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 25.1 (63) - 22.1 (41)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 343.5 (74) - 355.8 (59)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.91 (93) - 5.31 (64)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.31 (100) - 4.12 (76)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.97 (59) - 6.57 (48)
Turnover Differential: +0.15 (52)
2009 OUTLOOK: With bowl berths in each of his first two seasons, head coach Mark Dantonio clearly has the Spartans heading in the right direction. In Year Three, Dantonio has the makings of a suffocating defense, with nine returning starters, but he has some holes to fill on offense. He must replace the production of hard-to-stop tailback Javon Ringer (22 touchdowns) and underrated quarterback Brian Hoyer (2,404 yards, nine scores) in order to keep the program"s forward momentum going.
OFFENSE: Gone from last year"s productive offense is All-American Ringer (1,637 yards). He was an absolute workhorse for the Spartans, carrying the ball a whopping 390 times. Ringer"s unmatched work ethic, both on the field and in the weight room as well as his between-the-tackles toughness, made him a fifth-round pick of the Tennessee Titans. With no signature runner back in place, Dantonio will likely use a two- or three-headed monster approach to replace Ringer"s eye-popping productivity. During spring ball, fifth-year senior A.J. Jimmerson shared the workload with three talented young pups—redshirt sophomores Andre Anderson and Ashton Leggett and redshirt freshman Caulton Ray. The other burning question on offense is
DEFENSE: Game-changing defensive end Trevor Anderson, who was an All-Big East performer for Dantonio at Cincinnati and then followed him to Michigan State, is back to terrorize enemy quarterbacks for another year. He lived in opposing backfields with eight sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss and looked even quicker and stronger during spring drills. He"ll be joined up front by senior space-eater Oren Wilson and sophomore star-in-the-making Kevin Pickelman at the tackles, with junior Colin Neely manning the other end spot. The linebacking corps is paced by one of the nation"s best, junior Greg Jones (teamhigh 127 tackles). The amazing part is that Jones nearly wasn"t a Spartan. In fact, he appeared to be ticketed for Minnesota until head coach Glen Mason was canned. He teams with fellow junior Eric Gordon (85 stops) to give the Spartans a pair of molarrattling hitters. Michigan State will miss playmaking safety Otis Wiley (four interceptions), but Dantonio still believes that this will be his best secondary yet. That"s because senior Ross Weaver and junior Chris L. Rucker, both starting corners last year, are back, along with free safety Danny Fortener (69 tackles, interceptions).
PREDICTION: This team will be ranked in the national polls and will go bowling again. The defense is top-flight, the special teams are special and Dantonio can coach. If either Cousins or Nichol can command the huddle, and make enough plays from the quarterback spot, then Michigan State could emerge from a three-team chase group (Iowa and Illinois being the others) to challenge Penn State and Ohio State for the Big Ten crown.
MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
Where: Minneapolis, MN
Head Coach: Tim Brewster, 3rd year
2008 Record: 7-6 SU, 7-5 ATS
Facility: TCF Bank Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 10
Defense: Multiple 4-3 - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 53
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -1.5 (#77 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -2.3 (#73 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 37 (#68 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 44.92 (#21 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 7-6, 14-24 (37%)
Overall ATS: 7-5, 18-16 (53%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 8-8 (50%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-1, 10-8 (56%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 13-10 (57%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-3, 7-7 (50%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-2, 11-9 (55%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 23.2 (83) - 24.8 (61)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 322.9 (91) - 383.6 (81)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.93 (89) - 5.71 (89)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.1 (104) - 4.07 (69)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.86 (66) - 7.53 (97)
Turnover Differential: +0.92 (16)
2009 OUTLOOK: Minnesota was one of the most-improved teams in the land, going from one win in 2007 to a 7-6 mark and a trip to the Insight Bowl (where it lost to Kansas). Of course, a closer look reveals that the Golden Gophers started the season with a 7-1 mark and didn"t win again, so there"s still work to be done.
OFFENSE: Back to light up the scoreboard at Minnesota"s new 50,000-seat TCF Bank Stadium and throughout the Big Ten is the lethal combo of junior quarterback Adam Weber and senior wide receiver Eric Decker. Weber, a cool customer in the pocket, threw for 2,761 yards, 15 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. He was hurt by the lack of consistent running attack, though, and took a pounding from opposing defenses. While Weber has been quite a productive player for the Gophers, there was actually more buzz about his backup, freshman Mar- Queis Gray, this spring—in part because Minnesota fans had to wait so long to get him. The team"s No. 1 recruit in 2008, Gray was forced to retake the ACT and didn"t play for the Gophers last fall. He has big-time size, a strong arm and a bright future. Decker is the first Gopher to letter in both football and baseball in the same year in a decade. Football is Decker"s future, though, as he set a school single-season record for catches (84) and led the Big Ten in receiving yards (1,074). He"ll team with highly touted junior-college transfer Hayo Carpenter, Brodrick Smith (one of the stars of spring ball), fellow sophomore speed demon Troy Stoudamire and Ben Kuznia (31 receptions) in a nice quintet of pass catchers. Minnesota"s ground attack produced just 103.8 yards per game. That"s not good enough. Duane Bennett (torn ACL) is healthy again and sits atop the depth chart at tailback. But look for DeLeon Eskridge (678 yards, seven scores) and redshirt freshman Kevin Whaley to push him for the top spot during summer drills. The line, a weakness last season, figures to be boosted by the additions of Notre Dame transfer Matt Carufel, a Minnesota kid who returned home, and mammoth juniorcollege import Jeffrey Wills (6-7, 350).
DEFENSE: Following Ted Roof"s departure for Auburn, Brewster opted to go with co-defensive coordinators, promoting secondary coach Ronnie Lee and then hiring former Nebraska and Wisconsin defensive coordinator Kevin Cosgrove. Top task for them is improving a secondary that surrendered 21 touchdowns. It"s possible if safety Tramaine Brock (73 tackles) can make his way back into school with some strong summer session work. If he returns, Brock will team with junior Kim Royston, a Wisconsin transfer, in a solid safety tandem. Add senior cornerback Traye Simmons (four interceptions), a future pro, into that mix and you"re onto something. Golden Gopher coaches believe that senior outside linebacker Simoni Lawrence (66 tackles) and senior defensive ends Derrick Onwuachi and Raymond Henderson have the athleticism to replace the lost productivity of off-the-edge ace Willie VanDeSteeg (10.5 sacks). A sideline-to-sideline playmaker with 4.41 speed, Lawrence teams with Lee Campbell (team-high 80 tackles) to form a dynamic duo.
PREDICTION: This team"s two primary shortcomings—the lack of a ground game and inconsistency on defense—killed it over the last five games and could do so again. Any team with Decker and Weber on it will score points, that"s a given, but this squad must do a better job of stopping foes or it will finish around .500 again.
NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
Where: Evanston, IL
Head Coach: Pat Fitzgerald, 3rd year
2008 Record: 9-4 SU, 7-5 ATS
Facility: Ryan Field
Offense: No-Huddle Spread - Starters Returning: 5
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 52
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +4.2 (#48 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +2.7 (#54 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 41 (#53 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 37.67 (#76 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 9-4, 19-18 (51%)
Overall ATS: 7-5, 16-18 (47%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 7-10 (41%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-2, 9-8 (53%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 12-12 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-3, 4-8 (33%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-2, 12-10 (55%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 24.4 (75) - 20.2 (27)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 359.2 (61) - 340.5 (49)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.92 (92) - 4.78 (23)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.75 (81) - 3.62 (34)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.17 (89) - 5.9 (17)
Turnover Differential: -0.23 (77)
2009 OUTLOOK: Northwestern was one of the Big Ten Conference"s feel-good stories in 2008, winning nine games and playing Missouri tough in an overtime loss in the Alamo Bowl. The good news is that eight starters return on defense, as well as four-fifths of the offensive line. On the downside, all the top skill position players—including quarterback C.J. Bacher, tailback Tyrell Sutton and three wideouts—are gone.
OFFENSE: Head coach Pat Fitzgerald was probably a little sad—and quite proud—when he attended Northwestern"s 2009 commencement exercises and saw guys that had meant so much to him and the program (i.e. Bacher, Sutton and wideout Eric Peterman) graduate. While they"ll be missed, the Wildcats aren"t in as desperate straits as one might imagine, because both Bacher and Sutton were injured last season, allowing their replacements plenty of game action. While Bacher (7,319 career passing yards, 43 career touchdown passes) nursed a hamstring injury, quarterback Mike Kafka started against a pair of eventual bowl teams, Minnesota and Ohio State, and fared quite well. He rushed for 217 yards versus the Gophers, a Big Ten single-game rushing mark for a quarterback, and then completed 67 percent of his throws against Jim Tressel"s squad. His nimble feet (4.7 yards per carry) combined with his competitive nature will add a new dimension to the Wildcats" spread offense. Sutton was bitten by the injury bug too, giving his understudy, Stephen Simmons, a chance to shine. Like Sutton, Simmons is tiny (5-8, 185), but quite talented. He"ll be hard to find and tackle behind the large and experienced offensive line, a unit that returns four starters in tackles Al Netter and Desmond Taylor, center Ben Burkett and guard Doug Bartels. With Peterman, Ross Lane and Rasheed Ward all gone at receiver, new pass catchers will need to emerge. Senior Andrew Brewer (18 receptions) has been through the wars and is a proven possession receiver, while sophomore Charles Brown has the quickness necessary to stretch opposing defenses.
DEFENSE: Eight starters return on defense, including an All-American candidate in end Corey Wootton (10 sacks, 16 tackles for loss). The question is
PREDICTION: With the makings of a stout defense, but major questions at tailback and wideout, the Wildcats are a hard team to figure. If Wootton wins his battle with a wounded knee and Kafka emerges as a scary pass-run threat, as expected, then the Wildcats should go bowling again, but it figures to be a second-tier type of bowl.
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
Where: Columbus, OH
Head Coach: Jim Tressel, 9th year
2008 Record: 10-3 SU, 6-6 ATS
Facility: Ohio Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 4
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 45
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +13.7 (#16 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +16.8 (#10 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 59 (#7 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 42.58 (#46 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 10-3, 33-6 (85%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 21-15 (58%)
at Home ATS: 1-5, 8-10 (44%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-1, 13-5 (72%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 16-8 (67%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-4, 19-12 (61%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-2, 2-3 (40%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 27.6 (45) - 13.9 (6)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 342.7 (76) - 295.2 (16)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.52 (52) - 4.54 (12)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.63 (34) - 3.58 (32)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.31 (40) - 5.42 (3)
Turnover Differential: +1.23 (6)
2009 OUTLOOK: NFL franchises came to Columbus and bought in bulk this past spring as seven different Buckeyes were drafted, including four first-day selections in tailback Chris “Beanie” Wells, cornerback Malcolm Jenkins, linebacker James Laurinaitis and wide receiver Brian Robiske. Only USC (11 players drafted) proved to be a more popular one-stop shop for NFL scouts, meaning that Ohio State head coach Jim Tressel must restock the shelves in Columbus as he builds this team around superstar- in-the-making Terrelle Pryor.
OFFENSE: Pryor, the most-coveted high school recruit in the Class of 2008, was as good as advertised as a true freshman—leading the Big Ten in passing efficiency. The scary part? He hasn"t come close to reaching his potential after throwing for a dozen scores and running for a half-dozen more. Before he"s through, Pryor is capable of running for 1,000 yards and throwing for 2,500-plus yards in the same season. Pryor, Ohio State"s Superman in shoulder pads, won"t have to do everything by himself, though. Even with Robiske and Brian Hartline gone, Pryor still has an explosive receiving corps, led by the quartet of Ray Small, DeVier Posey, Dan Sanzenbacher and Lamaar Thomas. And Wells" understudy, Dan “Bam” Herron, showed flashes of brilliance when his number was called, rushing for 439 yards and six scores. Herron will run behind a beefy and talented offensive line, led by Michigan transfer Justin Boren (6-3, 315), who brings first-rate run blocking (he"s one of the Big Ten"s best in that category) and a nasty streak with him from Ann Arbor. He"ll team with Andy Miller (6-6, 279), Michael Brewster (6-5, 300), Bryant Browning (6-4, 312) and Jim Cordle (6-4, 295).
DEFENSE: Despite losing cornerbacks Jenkins and Donald Washington, along with playmaking linebackers Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman, Ohio State will field one of the Big Ten"s most feared defenses. The leaders of this year"s unit will be future Pro Bowl lineman Cameron Heyward (the son of the late Craig “Ironhead” Heyward) and its two senior safeties—Kurt Coleman, an all-conference pick with 78 tackles and four interceptions, and Anderson Russell (67 tackles, two interceptions). With Jenkins and Washington gone, junior Chimdi Chekwa (30 stops) assumes the role of shutdown corner. Ohio State"s front four could be downright scary. Heyward, a junior, had 36 tackles and three sacks, and will be joined by seniors Lawrence Wilson, who has missed major portions of the past two seasons with injuries, Rob Rose, Thaddeus Gibson and Doug Worthington. At linebacker, the dynamic duo of Laurinaitis (130 tackles) and Freeman (84) will be missed, but senior Ross Homan (67) is ready to pick up some of the slack, along with fellow senior Austin Spitler.
PREDICTION: The faces change, but expectations don"t in Columbus. The goal is to win the Big Ten Conference title and get to a Bowl Championship Series bowl. Is it possible with all the star power that walked out the door? Yep. This team is strong in both trenches and has a quarterback who has a ceiling as high as the Sistene Chapel. He only scratched the surface last year and figures to start blossoming into a big-time star. If he does shine, then the Buckeyes will be a fixture in the polls and will battle Penn State, the team that they shared the crown with a year ago, for Big Ten supremacy.
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
Where: State College, PA
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 44th year
2008 Record: 11-2 SU, 7-4 ATS
Facility: Beaver Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 5
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 5
Lettermen Returning: 45
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +24.5 (#5 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +22.9 (#5 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 60 (#5 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 38.17 (#70 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 11-2, 29-10 (74%)
Overall ATS: 7-4, 18-18 (50%)
at Home ATS: 4-2, 11-8 (58%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-2, 7-10 (41%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-3, 8-15 (35%)
as Favorite ATS: 7-4, 17-13 (57%)
as Underdog ATS: 0-0, 1-5 (17%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 38.9 (11) - 14.4 (8)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 448.9 (14) - 280.1 (8)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.53 (14) - 4.39 (7)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 5.23 (12) - 2.82 (7)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.26 (15) - 6.09 (25)
Turnover Differential: +0.62 (22)
2009 OUTLOOK: Despite losing 12 starters, the defending Big Ten Conference champions have the talent and the favorable schedule—with two of its biggest challengers for the league"s top spot, Ohio State and Iowa, both coming to Happy Valley—to win the league again. College football is a coach"s and quarterback"s game and the Nittany Lions are wellstocked in both spots with living legend Joe Paterno and his pass-run threat under center, Daryll Clark.
OFFENSE: Clark evolved into a lethal weapon last season—hurting opponents with both his arm and his feet. Clark totaled 29 touchdowns (19 passing, 10 rushing), while throwing for 2,592 yards and running for 282 more. He"ll operate behind a rebuilt offensive line—anchored by guard-turned-center Stefen Wisniewski (6-3, 302) and tackle Dennis Landolt (6-4, 303). Another name to remember is DeOn"tae Pannell, a redshirt freshman tackle with a big body (6-5, 313) and even bigger potential. Clark will have two terrific tailbacks to hand the ball off to in Evan Royster and Stephfon Green. Royster (1,236 yards, 12 touchdowns) might be the most underrated player in the Big Ten. And when he needs a Gatorade break, Paterno inserts Green, a home-run hitter who rushed for 578 yards and four scores. Tight end Mickey Shuler, whose dad starred for Paterno back in the mid-1970s before enjoying a 14-year NFL career, will be a nice security blanket for Clark, while the Nittany Lions" all-new starting receiving corps gets comfy. Gone are household names Derrick Williams, Jordan Norwood and Deon Butler and replacing them are green, but gifted guys such as Brett Brackett, Derek Moye, A.J. Price, Graham Zug and Chaz Powell.
DEFENSE: There"s some serious remodeling to be done, but Paterno has wisely scheduled Akron, Syracuse and Temple to start the season and will have 12 quarters of football against inferior competition to get his defense rebuilt. His biggest concerns are at end, where his top three players are gone—including oneman wrecking crew Aaron Maybin, who recorded 12 sacks, left school a year early and was the No. 11 overall pick in the 2009 NFL draft—and the secondary. With Maybin, Josh Gaines and Maurice Evans having departed, it"s time for Jerome Hayes to avoid the injury bug for the first time in a couple years and become a star. Also, keep an eye on Jack Crawford, a ridiculous athlete who should provide off-the-edge pressure. The two tackle spots are in good hands as Jared Odrick (41 tackles, 4.5 sacks) and Ollie Ogbu both return, along with talented backups Abe Koroma and Devon Still. The school with the moniker “Linebacker U” has one of the best collections of linebackers in the land, thanks to the healthy return of Sean Lee, a bonafide All-American. Lee will team with Josh Hull (75 stops) and budding star Navarro Bowman (team-high 106 tackles) to form a bone-crushing unit, if Bowman can get back in Paterno"s good graces after some off-the-field issues. The secondary needs work, but safety Drew Astorino and cornerback A.J. Wallace are two good building blocks for defensive coordinator Tom Bradley to start with.
PREDICTION: Paterno didn"t win 383 games at Penn State by accident. He"ll break out of the gates with a 3-0 mark against cupcakes and will use those games to fill the holes left by the departure of 12 starters. If his team can beat Iowa in late September in Happy Valley, then the Nittany Lions certainly could repeat at Big Ten champs and go back to a Bowl Championship Series bowl.
PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
Where: West Lafayette, IN
Head Coach: Danny Hope, 1st year
2008 Record: 4-8 SU, 5-5 ATS
Facility: Ross-Ade Stadium
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 4
Defense: Multiple 4-3 - Starters Returning: 7
Lettermen Returning: 50
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -0.4 (#66 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +1.5 (#61 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 43 (#46 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 43.00 (#40 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 4-8, 20-19 (51%)
Overall ATS: 5-5, 16-18 (47%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 7-10 (41%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-3, 9-8 (53%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-3, 11-11 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-2, 7-10 (41%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-3, 9-8 (53%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 24.7 (70) - 25.1 (64)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 374.4 (48) - 358.9 (61)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.03 (86) - 5.21 (57)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.82 (77) - 4.5 (94)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 5.97 (93) - 6.14 (27)
Turnover Differential: -0.25 (79)
2009 OUTLOOK: Danny Hope inherits a real mess from his mentor Joe Tiller. The Boilermakers were 4- 8 last season and Hope must replace seven starters on offense, including quarterback Curtis Painter and the highly productive passcatching duo of Desmond Tandy and Greg Orton (who combined to catch 136 balls for 10 scores) and shifty tailback Kory Sheets. Most of the defense is back, but even that unit needs work as the Boilermakers allowed 25.1 points per game.
OFFENSE: There was a mass exodus of talent on this side of the ball. Painter, who threw for 11,163 yards and 67 touchdowns, was a sixth-round pick of the Indianapolis Colts. Orton, the program"s No. 5 all-time receiver (203 career catches), and Sheets (54 career touchdowns), are in the training camps of the Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers, respectively. Entering spring ball, the quarterback derby was supposed to be a two-man race between fifth-year senior Joey Elliott and sophomore Justin Siller. But after participating in a handful of spring practice sessions, Siller (496 passing yards, three touchdowns last year), a gifted runner and thrower, was dismissed from school for academic reasons. He will miss the entire 2009-10 school year. That leaves Elliott, who has thrown for only 300 yards in his career, as the likely opening-day starter with a redshirt freshman Caleb Ter- Bush as his primary backup. With Orton and Tandy gone, junior Keith Smith (49 catches) is the Boilermakers" best pass catcher. Smith will likely team up with Aaron Valentin, a former junior-college import who had a strong spring, as the starting wideouts. At running back, Purdue has a proven commodity in senior Jaycen Taylor, who missed all of last season with a torn ACL, and some promising young prospects in prize freshman Al-Terek McBurse from Winter Springs, FL and speedy sophomore Ralph Bolden. The tailbacks will have the luxury of running behind an experienced line with four returning starters—Eric Hedstrom (left guard), Zach Jones (right tackle), Ken Plue (right guard) and Zach Reckman (left tackle).
DEFENSE: With the offense clearly in a state of flux, Purdue"s defense might need to carry it. The strength of this unit will be its secondary. If talented free safety Torri Williams can stay out of legal trouble, something that hasn"t been easy for him as a collegian, Purdue will return three-fourths of its secondary in Williams (83 tackles), along with corners David Pender (13 pass breakups) and Brandon King (48 stops). The front seven has some prime-time players as well—most notably, stud end Ryan Kerrigan (56 tackles, seven sacks), tackle Mike Neal and linebackers Joe Holland (76 tackles) and Chris Carlino. Kerrigan looks like a future pro, while Neal and Holland are allleague candidates. The question marks are at tackle—where Alex Magee was a third-round pick in the 2009 NFL draft and Ryan Baker signed as a free agent with the Miami Dolphins—and at middle linebacker. Oft-injured linebacker Jason Werner looks like he"ll start in the middle along with Holland and Carlino—as long as his balky back holds up. Werner is stout against the run, something that the Purdue defense desperately needs after getting gashed for 175 yards per contest last fall.
PREDICTION: Other than the new head coach, things look pretty hopeless right now in West Lafayette. But give Hope, a dogged recruiter, some time to get his players in place and the future of Purdue should be bright again. However, the present could be rather ugly as the Boilermakers look poised to battle in-state rival Indiana to stay out of the Big Ten Conference basement.
WISCONSIN BADGERS
Where: Madison, WI
Head Coach: Bret Bielema, 4th year
2008 Record: 7-6 SU, 5-7 ATS
Facility: Camp Randall Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 5
Lettermen Returning: 42
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -0.2 (#64 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +3 (#50 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 43 (#49 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 38.67 (#68 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 7-6, 28-11 (72%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 18-17 (51%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 10-8 (56%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 8-9 (47%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 11-12 (48%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-3, 14-9 (61%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-4, 4-8 (33%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 26.4 (53) - 26.5 (66)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 388.1 (42) - 327.4 (34)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.73 (36) - 5.08 (48)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.83 (24) - 3.91 (57)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.25 (41) - 6.38 (41)
Turnover Differential: -0.62 (98)
2009 OUTLOOK: This time last year, Wisconsin was viewed as a legit Big Ten Conference title contender, but it never lived up to that hype—finishing just one game above .500 and even getting its doors blown off on three separate occasions (versus Penn State, Iowa and Florida State in the Champs Sports Bowl). So, this will be a critical year for Badger football to either re-establish itself as an elite Big Ten program or continue to backslide.
OFFENSE: Senior Dustin Scherer is back at the controls for the Badgers. The quarterback is the stereotypical Wisconsin game manager- type—pretty accurate thrower (55 percent completion percentage), but not much of a runner and not a guy who will post eyepopping stats. Scherer"s primary job will be to make safe throws to move the sticks and to turn and hand the ball off to the Badgers" bruising runners. Last year, the primary back was P.J. Hill. This year, it"ll be sophomore John Clay, a 247-pound load who has quicker feet than you"d first imagine. Clay rushed for 884 yards and nine scores and he"ll be ably backed up by junior Zach Brown (305 yards, three touchdowns). Clay and Brown will operate behind a mammoth line that averages over 300 pounds per man. The leader of this year"s buffet-busting line is Gabe Carimi, a 6-8, 313- pounder who has replaced all-everything selection Joe Thomas (now a very rich man with the Cleveland Browns) rather well at left tackle. Carimi and his linemates—center John Moffitt (6-4, 313), sophomore right tackle Josh Oglesby (6-7, 329), right guard Bill Nagy (6-4, 307) and left guard Jake Bscherer (6-7, 310)—are maulers. They"ll line up and sock you in the mouth. The test-your-manhood style works often, but Scherer will need to complete enough passes for Wisconsin to improve on last year"s campaign. Tight end Garrett Graham (40 catches) and wideouts David Gilreath (31) and Isaac Anderson (21) can all catch the football. Also, keep an eye on Nick Toon, the son of former New York Jets star Al Toon.
DEFENSE: The front four returns only one starter—O"Brien Schofield—but he has “stardom” written all over him. The 6-3, 242- pound former linebacker recorded 40 tackles and five sacks in his junior campaign. In addition to a great name, there"s NFL in Schofield"s bloodlines as his cousins are Bobby Engram and Vonnie Holliday. The unquestioned ringleader of the linebacking corps will be senior Jaevery McFadden, who recorded 84 tackles and will move from the weak side to the middle. McFadden"s position move will allow special teams star Culmer St. Jean (23 tackles) to start on the weak side. Blake Sorensen, a 6-1 junior, will attempt to fill the cleats of DeAndre Levy (no easy task) at strongside linebacker. Redshirt sophomore Aaron Henry is now fully recovered from his torn ACL and seems ready to be a No. 1 cornerback. He"ll start with junior Niles Brinkley (40 tackles, four interceptions), with senior Chris Maragos (45 tackles) slated to start at free safety and Jai Valia (56) trying to return from back surgery to start at strong safety.
PREDICTION: The Badgers aren"t as talented as last year"s team, but there are some nice pieces in place—a powerful offensive line, a nice stable of backs, strong special teams—but ultimately the quarterback will need to make big plays to beat quality Big Ten foes. So unless Scherer steps up his game, look for Wisconsin"s slide to continue.
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