If any conference on the college football landscape would be judged as “up for grabs” heading into the 2009 season, it would have to be the Big East. Minus a ton of talent from last year"s proceedings, the league will be looking for several new names to steal the spotlight for their respective teams. Oddsmakers at Sportbook.com would seem to concur on the notion that this will be a competitive season in the Big East, as six of the eight teams boast prices of +600 or less to win the league title. Let"s dig into this conference a little more to see if we can"t pick out an eventual winner.
The Big East lost serious star power when gifted skill players Donald Brown (Connecticut), Kenny Britt (Rutgers), Pat White (West Virginia) and LeSean McCoy (Pittsburgh) were all selected on the first day of last spring"s NFL Draft. Every coach in the league needs to restock the shelves as only Cincinnati and South Florida have established quarterbacks and virtually every program is breaking in a new coordinator, a new offensive line and a new kicking game. Last year"s surprise league champ, Cincinnati, will feature a potent offense, led by senior quarterback Tony Pike (19 touchdown passes) and wide receiver Dominick Goodman, but has only one returning starter on defense (safety Aaron Webster). If the Bearcats" stop unit struggles, then South Florida, a program with arguably the Big East"s finest offensive and defensive players in gun-slinging quarterback Matt Grothe and pass-rushing demon George Selvie, could claim the top spot, if its offensive line can be rebuilt. Pittsburgh"s Dave Wannstedt must replace McCoy and hitting machine Scott McKillop, but he has bookend junior ends Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard and a top-notch secondary. Rutgers will miss quarterback Mike Teel and the game-changing Britt, but a Charmin-soft non-league schedule (a slate that starts with Howard and Florida International) will give their replacements time to get acclimated. West Virginia begins life without White, but has a future pro tailback in Noel Devine (1,289 yards). Connecticut lost Brown, stud offensive tackle William Beatty, havoc-causing defensive end Cody Brown and steady cornerback Darius Butler to NFL riches, so head coach Randy Edsall has a lengthy to-do list, as does Louisville coach Steve Kragthorpe and new Syracuse head man Doug Marrone.
2009 PREDICTED FINISH
1. South Florida
2. Cincinnati
3. Pittsburgh
4. Rutgers
5. West Virginia
6. Connecticut
7. Louisville
8. Syracuse
Sportsbook.com Odds to Win the Big East Title in 2009
Cincinnati: +600
Connecticut: +600
Louisville: +1200
Pittsburgh: +250
Rutgers: +400
South Florida: +250
Syracuse: +5000
West Virginia: +250
StatFox Steve"s Take: This league really is up for grabs in 2009. Cincinnati is the defending champ but has just one starter back. Louisville has the most starters returning but loses it quarterback. Pittsburgh, West Virginia, and Rutgers have a shot but will need to replace big time offensive stars. In my opinion, the only team that has enough stability and talent in place at this point is South Florida. The Bulls are also tough at home and hungry from an ugly 2-5 league season in 2008, which featured three losses by a total of 15 points.
CINCINNATI BEARCATS
Where: Cincinnati, OH
Head Coach: Brian Kelly, 3rd year
2008 Record: 11-3 SU, 6-7 ATS
Facility: Nippert Stadium
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: Multiple 3-4 - Starters Returning: 1
Lettermen Returning: 43
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +5.7 (#38 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +5.2 (#40 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 47 (#34 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 40.83 (#57 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 11-3, 29-11 (73%)
Overall ATS: 6-7, 21-13 (62%)
at Home ATS: 3-2, 11-4 (73%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-5, 10-9 (53%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-3, 12-7 (63%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-6, 12-11 (52%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-1, 9-2 (82%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 25.9 (55) - 20.1 (26)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 370.6 (52) - 321.1 (31)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.6 (46) - 4.69 (18)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.62 (87) - 3.35 (19)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.5 (34) - 6.04 (21)
Turnover Differential: -0.57 (94)
2009 OUTLOOK: Whatever elixir Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly managed to create during his first two years better have a three-year shelf life. Coming off the best two-season stretch in school history, the Bearcats, the defending Big East Champions, will have a completely new defense taking the field—10 of 11 starters—but with the way Kelly has quickly transformed the program, who knows what type of tricks he may have up his sleeve.
OFFENSE: If Tony Pike is ever looking for a career after football, he might want to look into the Toughman competition. The senior, a second-team All-Big East selection, played the final seven games with a broken nonthrowing arm, yet still finished with 19 touchdowns and completed 61.4 percent of his throws. The Bearcats didn"t have to look far for weekly inspiration. Chazz Anderson saw 98 plays over three games and is fighting off three other underclassmen. Aside from the Pike-to-Marty Gilyard connection, little experienced firepower returns at wide receiver. But then again, Gilyard did pull down 81 passes for a team-high 1,276 yards, 11 touchdowns and a 15.8-yard average. Losing Domanick Goodman"s 84 catches and 1,028 yards is a blow, but transfer Vidal Hazelton, a reserve with USC, could provide some spark if he"s allowed to suit up without sitting out a year. Perhaps Cincinnati will unleash one of the oddest two-way players ever, kicker Danny Milligan, a 5-9, 171-pound redshirt freshman, who proved his hands may be as good as his foot during spring practice. Little stood out on the ground from an individual standpoint, but senior Jacob Ramsey (664 yards, two touchdowns) and junior John Goebel (607, 7) did form a solid tandem. Several underclassmen could have an impact, including sophomores Isaiah Pead (194 yards) and George Winn and redshirt freshman Darrin Williams.
DEFENSE: There"s probably no better time to switch up defensive schemes than now, as only safety Aaron Webster (60 tackles) is back from last year"s starting lineup. The defense has lost plenty of its bite, including four players that combined for 50 tackles for loss and 25 sacks. Among them is end Connor Barwin, the Big East leader in sacks. Getting the 3-4 scheme off the ground at the same time the defense welcomes 10 new starters can only benefit the program in the long run. The only question is when the “long run” kicks in and the short term ends. Defensive back Drew Frey is a redshirt freshman by class label, but he"s been around for two years already, missing most of 2007 and all of "08 due to injury. He"s been guaranteed eligibility through 2012-13 by the NCAA. Losing DeAngelo Smith and Mike Mickens weakens what was an aggressive, turnoverforcing secondary. The two combined for 123 tackles and 20 pass breakups. No area better represents the inexperience of the defense than the secondary, where sophomores Dominique Battle, Brent Black and Trammell Williams all have had little more than spot action. Even junior receiver Marcus Barnett is moving over to the defensive backfield on the heels of a 30-catch campaign. Times are tough, and holes are open. The reworked linebacking unit, which also calls for one additional starter, will also feature another former offensive player. Depth at quarterback has allowed Kelly to switch Notre Dame transfer Demetrius Jones to linebacker.
PREDICTION: People can talk all they want about Pike and Gilyard, but charting Cincinnati"s course comes down to one area—defense. Not many teams can institute a new scheme at the same time it"s bringing in 10 new starters and several converted players from the offensive side of the field. If Kelly"s a magician, this will be his biggest act yet.
CONNECTICUT HUSKIES
Where: Storrs, CT
Head Coach: Randy Edsall, 11th year
2008 Record: 8-5 SU, 6-6 ATS
Facility: Rentschler Field
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 6
Lettermen Returning: 35
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +5.2 (#42 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +4.1 (#47 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 43 (#46 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 42.58 (#45 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 8-5, 21-17 (55%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 19-16 (54%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 10-7 (59%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-3, 9-9 (50%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-3, 12-9 (57%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-3, 8-5 (62%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-3, 11-11 (50%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 24.9 (65) - 19.8 (22)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 357.8 (62) - 278 (6)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.26 (72) - 4.57 (15)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 5.1 (15) - 3.37 (21)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 5.52 (108) - 5.94 (18)
Turnover Differential: -0.31 (82)
2009 OUTLOOK: Whatever impression youmay have gotten about Connecticut football over the last two years, forget it. Change is in the air for the Huskies as they look to replace perhaps the best player in the program"s history, running back Donald Brown, the Big East Offensive Player of the Year, as well as an All-Big East offensive tackle and a pair of defensive ends that also received first-team honors.
OFFENSE: Brown led the nation in rushing (160.2 yards per game) and that"s hardly the type of production that"s easily replaceable. The Huskies will lean on a combination of players, led by redshirt senior Andre Brown. Unlike some teams that may be forced to throw unproven players into starting roles, Brown already has the bumps, bruises and yardage to show he belongs. He garnered All- Big East second-team honors in 2007, running for 828 yards. Sophomore Jordan Todman (296 yards rushing) is in the mix for playing time as well. Brown didn"t gain 2,083 yards rushing on his own, and two of the biggest hole punchers, All-Big East left tackle William Beatty and long-time center Kevin Gray, are gone. The rest of the line returns experience though, led by senior right tackle Mike Hicks. Dan Ryan, who has bounced around the line, has seen action in 30 games. Because Brown was carrying the offense with his legs, there was little need for extensive production out of the quarterback or his receivers. Junior Zach Frazer beat out sophomore Cody Endres for the starting quarterback job, though he was more inconsistent than spectacular in two starts and relief duty, throwing six interceptions in just 83 pass attempts. Endres led a win over Big East champion Cincinnati and threw three picks in 83 attempts. If the Huskies are going to lean more on the passing game, it could be a crapshoot, because it"s tough to say what the team will get from a receiving unit that was led by Kashif Moore"s 27 receptions. No other returning receiver had more than fellow sophomore Michael Smith"s 12. Tight end has come down to a battle between a pair of redshirt freshmen, John Delahunt and Ryan Griffin.
DEFENSE: Ranked sixth in the nation in total defense (278 yards per game), Connecticut has six starters returning. The problem lies on the line, where its two biggest playmakers, Cody Brown and Julius Williams, leave gaping holes of production to be filled. The two combined for 27.5 tackles for loss and 17.5 sacks. Senior Lindsey Witten and junior Marcus Campbell have jumped into starting roles on the edges but are largely untested. Witten netted an impressive six sacks and five tackles for loss in limited action, while Campbell had only 10 total tackles. All three starting linebackers—juniors Scott Lutrus (106 tackles), Lawrence Wilson (73) and Greg Lloyd (56)—return and considerable depth also stands behind the trio on the deep chart. Lutrus posted three games with at least 12 tackles and Lloyd had a pair, including seven total stops behind the line. Senior free safety Robert Vaughn anchors the secondary and finished third on the team with 67 tackles, but junior Jasper Howard didn"t trail by much in racking up 60. Perhaps the most impressive stat associated with Howard is his team-high four interceptions and nine pass breakups, despite the fact he"s just 5-9, 171 pounds.
PREDICTION: It took just five years for the Huskies to go from Division I-AA to a nationally ranked FCS program. Given the overall talent that"s being replaced, and a murderous schedule that includes road trips to Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Cincinnati and Notre Dame, simply making a third consecutive bowl appearance is a tall order.
LOUISVILLE CARDINALS
Where: Louisville, KY
Head Coach: Steve Kragthorpe, 3rd year
2008 Record: 5-7 SU, 4-7 ATS
Facility: Papa John"s Cardinal Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 7
Lettermen Returning: 49
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -5.2 (#89 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -6.2 (#93 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 35 (#74 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 43.67 (#32 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 5-7, 23-14 (62%)
Overall ATS: 4-7, 17-18 (49%)
at Home ATS: 3-4, 9-9 (50%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 1-3, 8-9 (47%)
vs Conference ATS: 1-6, 8-13 (38%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-3, 13-13 (50%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-4, 4-5 (44%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 24.7 (69) - 29.8 (89)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 375.8 (47) - 368.8 (70)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.34 (66) - 5.88 (95)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.35 (50) - 4.2 (81)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.48 (79) - 7.5 (94)
Turnover Differential: -1 (112)
2009 OUTLOOK: For more than a decade, quarterback was the one position Louisville never had to worry about. The depth chart always seemed to have a clear-cut starter and at least one backup biding his time. Entering 2009, however, quarterback is the one position creating a problem for a Cardinal program that ended the year on a five-game losing skid.
OFFENSE: Head coach Steve Kragthorpe essentially narrowed the search for the next starting quarterback down to a pair of newcomers— junior Justin Burke, who came over from N.C. State and junior-college transfer Adam Froman—during the spring. The struggles of last year"s top signal-caller, Hunter Cantwell (16 interceptions), coupled with injuries, limited the entire offense. Sophomore running back Vic Anderson made a big splash in his Louisville debut, rushing for 1,047 yards and eight touchdowns, while junior Bilal Powell was an effective change-of-pace bruiser, averaging 4.7 yards on 75 carries. Helping matters were a pair of linemen who earned All-Big East firstteam nominations, center Eric Wood and tackle George Bussey. Both have moved on to the NFL, complicating the support up front for the backs and receivers. Anchored by upperclassmen, the trenches are set to be helmed by senior right guard Abdul Kuyateh and junior right tackle Jeff Adams, and the average height of each starter is 6-5. The top receivers are back, providing experienced targets, led by junior Doug Beaumont (62 catches, 750 yards) and sophomore Josh Chichester (30, 341). At 6-8, 240 pounds, there isn"t a defensive back in the world that can match his reach. Injuries robbed explosive seniors Scott Long and Trent Guy of most of last season, but their returns further deepen the talented unit.
DEFENSE: Even with Cantwell"s struggles, the offense managed to average a healthy 24.7 points per game. Across the field, the Cardinals defense ranked among the worst in the nation in terms of points allowed (29.8 per game) and passing yards allowed (239.3). The lack of a pass rush (14 sacks) stands at the epicenter of the problems. Could things possibly get worse? Apparently so, as all four starters on the line have to be replaced. While the purge could be a good thing in the long term, the experience factor looms large, at least for the start of the season. While the tackles (Tyler Jessen and L.T. Walker) are both seniors and their current backups also are upperclassmen, they lack extensive game action. None of the four registered more than L.D. Scott"s 22 tackles or six stops for loss. The rotation of players coming off the edges—sophomores Greg Scruggs and Williams Savoy and juniors Malcom Tatum and Rodney Gnat—combined for just 17 tackles. Senior middle linebacker Jon Dempsey led the defense with 80 stops, and he"ll get help from juniors Antwon Canady (39 tackles) and Brandon Heath (20) and senior Chris Campa (37), who are all battling for time. It"s puzzling to see how Louisville"s pass defense struggled as much as it did, given the talents of senior safety Dan Covington (66 tackles) and junior cornerback Johnny Patrick (four pass breakups). The return of senior safety Richard Raglin should have a major impact, as the vocal leader played in just three games before suffering a broken wrist.
PREDICTION: Injuries took their toll on Louisville. The offense struggled at the same time the defense fell apart, creating a perfect storm of woe in the second half. However, the potential for points is there, and the defense returns key personnel from injury. Don"t expect another cellar finish in the Big East.
PITTSBURGH PANTHERS
Where: Pittsburgh, PA
Head Coach: Dave Wannstedt, 5th year
2008 Record: 9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS
Facility: Heinz Field
Offense: Pro Style - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 7
Lettermen Returning: 51
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +5.6 (#39 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +9.9 (#23 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 50 (#27 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 41.17 (#54 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 9-4, 20-17 (54%)
Overall ATS: 6-7, 17-18 (49%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 6-12 (33%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-3, 11-6 (65%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-3, 10-11 (48%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-4, 8-11 (42%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-3, 9-7 (56%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 27.1 (50) - 21.5 (35)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 342.5 (77) - 317.2 (28)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.1 (81) - 4.87 (29)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.67 (85) - 3.58 (31)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.94 (62) - 6.34 (39)
Turnover Differential: -0.23 (78)
2009 OUTLOOK: Pittsburgh"s proving that old-style football still does win games. Led by a bruising running attack, and a punishing defense, the Panthers racked up nine wins and could hit double digits in 2009. Though tailback LeSean McCoy won"t be easy to replace, a lineup full of veterans on both sides of the ball still gives head coach Dave Wannstedt plenty of firepower.
OFFENSE: Senior quarterback Bill Stull isn"t going to be mentioned with the bignumber producers at the position after throwing for nine touchdowns against 10 interceptions, but he should be considered among the biggest winners after engineering four fourth-quarter comebacks. Stull"s backup, junior Pat Bostick, completed 22 of 41 passes, but threw four interceptions. It"s going to take a small army to replace McCoy"s production over the last two years (2,816 yards, 36 touchdowns), and that"s exactly what the Panthers may have waiting in the wings. The group, largely comprised of inexperienced underclassmen, features junior Kevin Collier, sophomore Shariff Harris, freshman Dion Lewis and redshirt freshman Chris Burns. Stull and the new running backs have one of the better offensive lines in the Big East at opening holes. Four starters are back to a unit that paved the way for 139.1 yards rushing per game. The anchors are at the tackle spots, where junior Jason Pinkston and senior Joe Thomas are both multi-year starters. The wide receivers don"t get much play in the run-oriented attack, but sophomore Jonathan Baldwin made his catches count, averaging 22.4 yards on 22 grabs, and senior Oderick Turner is back after pulling down 21 balls. Senior Cedric McGee had 23 receptions at flanker and could be in for more work with the spring transfer of C.J. Porter. Senior tight end Nate Byham was an All-Big East selection and had 20 catches.
DEFENSE: Pittsburgh has a huge void to fill at linebacker, as Scott McKillop (137 stops), one of the nation"s top tacklers for two years running and the Big East Defensive Player of the Year, and the team"s No. 2 tackler, Austin Ransom, are gone. Opposing quarterbacks will be staring down the line at two rushers in juniors Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard. Romeus earned All-Big East honors (51 tackles, 15.5 for loss, 7.5 sacks), but teams can"t ignore Sheard (45, 10.5, 5.5), who also had 11 quarterback hurries and more pass breakups (seven) than nearly every member of the secondary. Senior tackle Mick Williams is back at tackle, helping anchor a run defense that held opponents to 3.6 yards per carry. No clear-cut starter is ready to replace McKillop. Throw in the loss of Ransom and the search for playmakers becomes the biggest issue in camp. Senior Steve Dell has earned three letters, but his playing time has been limited. Redshirt freshman Joe Trebitz has stepped into a golden opportunity, and could vault himself into the starting lineup. Sophomore Greg Williams enjoyed a solid first year as a starter (47 tackles, 6.5 for loss, 3.5 sacks), and the unit"s overall depth got a boost when senior Adam Gunn, a starter in 2007, was issued a sixth year of eligibility. All-Big East cornerback Aaron Berry headlines the secondary, breaking up 10 passes and picking off three more. Senior Jovanni Chappel will again start opposite Berry, and junior Dom DeCicco (56 tackles, team-high four interceptions) is a well-rounded free safety.
PREDICTION: The Panthers have lost three key performers in the lineup—McCoy, McKillop and Ransom—but the defense still has plenty of juice. That alone is going to keep Pittsburgh on top in most games. With Stull displaying coolness under pressure, don"t bet against the program remaining among the Big East Conference"s elite.
RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
Where: New Brunswick, NJ
Head Coach: Greg Schiano, 9th year
2008 Record: 8-5 SU, 7-4 ATS
Facility: Rutgers Stadium
Offense: Pro Style - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 6
Lettermen Returning: 47
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +10.2 (#24 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +8 (#27 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 54 (#15 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 38.00 (#71 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 8-5, 27-12 (69%)
Overall ATS: 7-4, 21-13 (62%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 9-8 (53%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-1, 12-5 (71%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-1, 12-9 (57%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-4, 8-11 (42%)
as Underdog ATS: 7-0, 13-2 (87%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 29 (39) - 18.8 (19)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 398.4 (38) - 326.9 (33)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.18 (20) - 5.37 (65)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.93 (71) - 3.76 (47)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.47 (12) - 7.72 (99)
Turnover Differential: +0.08 (58)
2009 OUTLOOK: Rutgers Stadium isn"t the only thing that will be different to Scarlet Knight fans when the season starts in September, because some of the biggest and most productive players in the team"s history have moved on to the NFL. Head coach Greg Schiano has had a midas touch for much of his time at Rutgers, and pushing his team from a 1-5 start to a bowl game last year may be his best work.
OFFENSE: Rutgers hopes to strike gold in replacing quarterback Mike Teel (3,418 yards, 25 touchdowns) and wide receiver Kenny Britt (87 catches, 1,371 yards, seven touchdowns). First in line to take Teel"s spot is senior Dominic Natale, a transfer from Michigan State who saw limited action. Classmate Jabu Lovelace had some run in the huddle in 2007 and started "08 as Teel"s backup before breaking an ankle. Britt wasn"t the only Scarlet Knight receiver to move on to the NFL, as Tiquan Underwood also made the leap. The new signal-caller will benefit from the gamechanging ability of senior Tim Brown, who averaged 20.9 yards on 27 catches. Junior tight end Shamar Graves offers an emerging safety valve over the middle. A year ago, the offense had to make up for the loss of Ray Rice in the backfield, and three replacements couldn"t match his production. The top runner, junior Kordell Young, will be a full year removed from a torn ACL when the opener rolls around after racking up 554 yards and five touchdowns in just eight games. Sophomore Jourdan Brooks is a bruising runner and complements his quicker teammates—Young and sophomore Joe Martinek (404 yards, four touchdowns). An offensive line that"s the class of the Big East is anchored by junior left tackle Anthony Davis, who"s looking more and more like the program"s next NFL entry. Senior right tackle Kevin Haslam, senior center Ryan Blaszczyk and sophomore guard Art Frost are also back.
DEFENSE: Much like the offense, this side of the field also lost several key veterans. The secondary was hit hard as a four-year starter at safety, Courtney Greene, and a three-year starter at cornerback, Jason McCourty, are gone. Though the defense loses more starters than the offense, it"s in a better position to succeed based on the players remaining. The line is likely to be anchored by senior end George Johnson, entering his third year as a starter after racking up 10 tackles for loss and six quarterback hurries. Junior end Alex Silvestro was a reserve but made his snaps count, totaling 43 tackles, eight for loss. The top returning tackler is senior Ryan D"Imperio, a well-rounded linebacker who stopped 93 plays and had 12 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks and two interceptions. Manny Greene started more than half of Rutgers" games as a redshirt freshman, and looks to build on a solid debut (33 tackles). He"ll continue to push senior Damaso Munoz (45) and a host of underclassmen for time. As the Scarlet Knights try and rework a secondary that lost seven years of starting experience, they will lean on senior cornerback Devin McCourty (57 tackles, seven pass breakups) and junior safety Joe Lefeged (72 tackles). Though the pass defense was solid (191.4 yards per game, 11 touchdowns allowed), it didn"t force enough turnovers (10 interceptions) and that has to change in an effort to help the offense work with shorter fields.
PREDICTION: Last year"s winning streak was fueled by several players on the cusp of making the NFL. The Scarlet Knights are in the midst of a transition and have far more questions than answers, specifically on offense. Losing the top pass/catch combo without any experience coming back will prevent Rutgers from advancing beyond the middle of the Big East pack.
SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS
Where: Tampa, FL
Head Coach: Jim Leavitt, 13th year
2008 Record: 8-5 SU, 5-7 ATS
Facility: Raymond James Stadium
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 5
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 6
Lettermen Returning: 39
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +7.6 (#28 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +5.5 (#39 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 47 (#35 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 39.42 (#63 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 8-5, 26-13 (67%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 20-16 (56%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 10-5 (67%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-4, 10-11 (48%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-4, 12-9 (57%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-7, 13-14 (48%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-0, 7-2 (78%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 27.6 (46) - 20 (25)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 405 (32) - 287 (10)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.69 (43) - 4.58 (16)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.15 (61) - 2.84 (8)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.65 (29) - 6.6 (51)
Turnover Differential: -0.62 (99)
2009 OUTLOOK: It"s now or never for two of the best football players to ever suit up at South Florida—quarterback Matt Grothe and fellow senior, defensive end George Selvie. What looks like a disappointing 8-5 mark could have been much better with an extra bounce or two—three of South Florida"s five Big East losses were by a combined 15 points.
OFFENSE: Grothe remains one of the nation"s best-kept secrets. The dual-threat set career highs in passing yardage (2,911) and touchdown passes (18) and at the same time paced the team with 591 yards rushing and four touchdowns. After topping the Big East in yardage per game (269.4), Grothe is in line for another big campaign under new coordinator Mike Canales. It takes athletes to make a spread offense successful, and the Bulls have plenty. Redshirt freshman Evan Landi, one of Grothe"s backups, will be on the field even if he isn"t calling plays. Landi"s spring performance gives him a shot to start at wide receiver, where his 6-3, 214-pound frame is an ideal fit. Redshirt freshman B.J. Daniels is behind Grothe on the depth chart and also a competent passer/runner. What the receivers lack in outstanding numbers, they make up for in depth. Spring injuries to the top wideouts—senior Jessie Hester (54 catches, 579 yards) and junior A.J. Love (31, 370)—gave others a chance to shine. Carlton Mitchell (28, 405) looks like a redzone dream for Grothe, but the 6-4, 212- pound junior is really a field stretcher. Junior Dontavio Bogan (26 catches) could be pushed for playing time by senior Theo Wilson. Grothe"s best attribute may be his legs, because South Florida is trying to work three new starters into the trenches. Junior Jake Smith is back and will play either center or right guard, while junior Zach Hermann (21 career starts) returns at guard. Given Grothe"s ability to run, along with the return of junior Mike Ford (407 yards, five touchdowns), senior Mo Plancher (322, 6) and junior Jamar Taylor (300, 3), there"s definitely a strength in numbers in the backfield.
DEFENSE: Despite the return of Selvie (25.5 career sacks, 61.5 tackles for loss), the focus of the defense is shifting under Joe Tresey. South Florida struggled to force turnovers (seven fumble recoveries, 10 interceptions), an area that was a strength for Tresey at his last stop in Cincinnati, and the first place he will look to improve. Although the Bulls allowed just 2.8 yards per carry, the line is being revamped with the addition of three new starters, including Selvie"s new bookend mate. Though senior Aaron Harris has the experience, it wouldn"t be wise to count out incoming junior-college All-American Jason Paul-Pierre or top recruit Ryne Giddins. Another junior-college transfer, Leslie Stirrups, is already considered to be a potential starter at tackle. While the depth chart has a considerable amount of inexperience at linebacker, it"s hard to ignore the potential playmakers. Senior Kion Wilson (66 tackles), and Donte Spires, who last played in 2007, are solid blocks to build around, but a strong core of newcomers could push past the veterans on the depth chart. The players to watch are Jaquain Williams and incoming freshman Sam Barrington. Tresey"s focus on turnovers could improve a secondary featuring senior safety Nate Allen (53 tackles), and senior Jerome Murphy (67) along with sophomore Quenton Washington.
PREDICTION: It had to be tough to swallow a 2-5 Big East mark. However, better times are on the horizon, simply because the offense looks to be deeper. Unless several pieces fall perfectly into place on the offensive and defensive lines, South Florida is looking at a mid-level bowl.
SYRACUSE ORANGE
Where: Syracuse, NY
Head Coach: Doug Marrone, 1st year
2008 Record: 3-9 SU, 5-6 ATS
Facility: Carrier Dome
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Lettermen Returning: 46
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -14.6 (#112 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -10.8 (#104 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 30 (#89 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 43.25 (#35 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 3-9, 9-27 (25%)
Overall ATS: 5-6, 16-19 (46%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 8-10 (44%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 8-9 (47%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-3, 9-12 (43%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-1, 4-1 (80%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-5, 12-18 (40%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 18.1 (108) - 32.7 (102)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 270.2 (115) - 414.5 (102)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.69 (99) - 5.94 (98)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.55 (40) - 5.01 (102)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 4.88 (118) - 7.03 (72)
Turnover Differential: -0.08 (72)
2009 OUTLOOK: Syracuse football needs an infusion of excitement and intensity, and judging by his coaching pedigree, new head coach Doug Marrone should provide just that. Bad football doesn"t begin to describe the type played by the Orange over the last four seasons, a time in which the program has posted a 10- 37 mark. The most recent campaign featured an offense that couldn"t score (18.1 points per game) and a defense that failed miserably (32.7 points per game) when it came to protecting its own turf.
OFFENSE: Marrone has come out swinging double-edged swords at the depth chart, cutting up any preconceived notions players may have had. No position has been chopped as much as quarterback, where last year"s starter, senior Cameron Dantley (1,298 yards, 11 touchdowns, 48.2 completion percentage), has been overtaken by redshirt freshman Ryan Nassib. Dantley"s former backup, senior Andrew Robinson, is taking his 6-3, 222- pound frame over to tight end. Nassib"s arm could be in for a workout thanks to the return of junior Mike Williams, a star for the Orange in 2007 when he tied the school record for catches in a season (60). He has also caught a touchdown pass in each of his last nine games. That"s a huge step in the right direction for a passing game that had just 11 touchdowns (one more than Williams alone in "07) and not a single player with more than 29 grabs. Junior Donte Davis led the team across the board in catches (29), receiving yards (312) and scores (two), numbers that look good for a running back, not a top wideout. The line returns three junior starters—left tackle Tucker Baumbach, left guard Ryan Bartholomew and center Jim McKenzie—but the engine behind the ground attack, tailback Curtis Brinkley (1,164 yards), is gone. The time is now for junior Delone Carter (137 yards) and sophomore Antwon Bailey (221), and Marrone isn"t likely to have much patience.
DEFENSE: No matter the level of play, unless it"s flag football, any defense that allows 32.7 points per game needs to be revamped. Absent any pass rush (16 sacks), Syracuse was at the mercy of opponents on the ground (189.4 yards per game) and through the air (27 touchdowns). At least senior tackle Arthur Jones (13 tackles for loss) is back for a fourth year and is undoubtedly the unit"s best player. Junior Jared Kimmel started 10 games but managed just 31 tackles and one sack, leaving the door wide open for several underclassmen to swipe the starting assignment. The linebacking unit was solid, but far from spectacular, but the experience of returning juniors Derrell Smith (73 tackles) and Mike Mele (72) is a positive. The third spot is up for grabs with junior Patrick Cantey and sophomore Ryan Gillum competing on the weak side. No area returns more veterans than the secondary, where junior safeties Max Suter (32 tackles) and Mike Holmes (68 tackles, five pass breakups, four fumble recoveries) are again joined by sophomore cornerback Kevyn Scott (32 tackles, five pass breakups). Shaky at best for much of 2008, part of that could be due to the fact the defensive backfield was overworked in the wake of little pressure being put on quarterbacks. The defense"s eight total interceptions were just one better than the seven individual players who tied for the national lead.
PREDICTION: Forget one step forward, two steps back. Syracuse has been doing that for the last four years and it has been ugly. Marrone demands attention to detail and there"s no doubt it"s his way or the highway. Things can"t possibly get worse and Marrone"s intensity will at least point the team on the road to respectability.
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS
Where: Morgantown, WV
Head Coach: Bill Stewart, 2nd year
2008 Record: 9-4 SU, 4-8 ATS
Facility: Milan Puskar Stadium
Offense: Spread Option - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 3-3-5 Stack - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 33
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +7.5 (#29 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +6 (#36 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 52 (#23 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 41.08 (#56 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 9-4, 31-8 (79%)
Overall ATS: 4-8, 16-19 (46%)
at Home ATS: 2-4, 7-10 (41%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 9-9 (50%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-5, 7-12 (37%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-8, 15-18 (45%)
as Underdog ATS: 0-0, 1-1 (50%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 24.5 (73) - 17 (11)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 360.4 (59) - 328.9 (37)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.7 (41) - 4.74 (21)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 5.28 (10) - 3.6 (33)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.41 (82) - 5.99 (19)
Turnover Differential: +0.92 (17)
2009 OUTLOOK: Head coach Bill Stewart has made a seamless transition since taking over at West Virginia for the 2008 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl. In fact, he"s guided the Mountaineers to their fourth consecutive nine-win season, the first time the program has ever accomplished the feat. Now, his job gets tougher
OFFENSE: White"s list of records, awards and accomplishments are too long to list in this space, and many may never be challenged. White"s backup for three years, senior Jarrett Brown, offers far more arm than legs and won his only start, over Syracuse. Unlike most backups at the position, however, Brown"s athleticism kept him in the lineup, as he saw time at receiver and running back (36 carries, 169 yards). Spot action under center also gives him more than a good grasp of the spread option system that"s run. Three freshmen are behind Brown, along with sophomore Bradley Starks, currently moonlighting as a receiver. The loss of White shouldn"t change much on the ground, although Brown"s pass attempts are likely to see an overall increase. Junior Noel Devine comes back after finishing third in the Big East in rushing (206 carries, 1,289 yards), and is in line for a major uptick in scoring opportunities. He crossed the goal line just four times, largely because White (11 scores) was the first option on most plays. As strong as Devine has been, he still needs some holes to run through, and that"s an early concern, as three line starters graduated, including All-America left tackle Ryan Stancheck. Returning to a group that allowed just 18 sacks are senior right tackle Selvish Capers and junior center Eric Jobe. Senior Alric Arnett and Starks were listed atop the receiving depth chart coming out of the spring and both give Brown an athletic deep threat to aim for. Senior slot receiver Wes Lyons is a huge red-zone target at 6-8, and a definite safety valve over the middle.
DEFENSE: Scoring points against the Mountaineers can almost be likened to squeezing a diamond out of coal. Three opponents were held to six points or fewer and teams averaged just 17 per game. The secondary was particularly impressive, allowing just 11 touchdowns and picking off 17 passes. Returning to the secondary are both safeties—junior Sidney Glover and sophomore Robert Sands—and junior cornerback Brandon Hogan. The three combined for 154 tackles and 13 pass breakups. As far as the front three goes, junior Scooter Berry (34 tackles, 5.5 for loss), an All-Big East second-team selection at end, is sliding down to tackle and will be lined up next to junior nose tackle Chris Neild. Moving in at Berry"s vacated end position is sophomore Julian Miller, coming off a strong performance (3.5 sacks) in a limited role. Five linebackers with starting experience will cram into three starting slots, and West Virginia has to be beaming about having senior Reed Williams back in the middle. The team"s leading tackler in 2007 (107) and Defensive MVP of the "08 Fiesta Bowl, Williams redshirted last season after having surgery on both shoulders. Juniors J.T. Thomas (65 stops) and Pat Lazear (30) held off senior Zac Cooper, a converted defensive end, and sophomore Najee Goode during the spring.
PREDICTION: Mark it down, the Mountaineers are ready to claim the Big East Conference title. The offense may change to a more balanced attack, but the playmakers are still there, just at different positions. The defense, already among the better units in the conference, returns enough experience to push West Virginia over the top.
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