If any conference can produce a team capable of keeping Tim Tebow from getting his paws on college football"s crystal trophy for the third time in four years, it"s probably the Big 12. The conference boasts two legitimate national title threats in Oklahoma and Texas, plus is typically granted the benefit of the doubt by the BCS computers because of the tough schedules each team faces. Which team will sit atop the Big 12 come December though? Read on as we dig into this question, offering up our own insights based upon current futures odds and other key stats and trends for each team.
With 2008 Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford (4,720 yards, 50 touchdowns), two tailbacks who rushed for combined 2,222 yards and 34 scores in Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray, and a battle-tested defense that returns nine starters, the Sooners have the horses to return to the BCS title game. Unlike last year, they"ll have to beat Texas on Oct. 17 in Dallas to get there again. The Longhorns return eight starters on offense, paced by the lethal pass-catch combo of Colt McCoy (3,859 passing yards, 34 touchdowns) to Jordan Shipley (88 receptions, 1,060 yards, 11 scores). Mack Brown"s front seven is stacked too as Sergio Kindle (10 sacks) and Roddrick Muckelrot (team-best 112 tackles) are All-American candidates. Oklahoma State"s three-headed monster of quarterback Zac Robinson (3,064 yards, 25 touchdowns), wideout Dez Bryant (87 receptions, 1,480 yards, 19 touchdowns) and running back Kendall Hunter (119.6 yards rushing per game) might be the nation"s best troika of skill players on one team. While media types will focus on the Big 12 South—-and rightfully so—-the Big 12 North looks intriguing too, as Kansas returns a record-setting quarterback of its own in Todd Reesing, while second-year Nebraska coach Bo Pelini has seven returning defensive starters, including tackle Ndamukong Suh and safety Larry Asante.
2009 PREDICTED FINISH
BIG 12 NORTH
1. Nebraska
2. Kansas
3. Missouri
4. Colorado
5. Kansas State
6. Iowa State
BIG 12 SOUTH
1. Oklahoma
2. Texas
3. Oklahoma State
4. Texas Tech
5. Baylor
6. Texas A&M
Sportsbook.com Odds to Win the Big 12 Title in 2009
Baylor: +5000
Colorado: +3000
Iowa State: +5000
Kansas: +700
Kansas State: +5000
Missouri: +3000
Nebraska: +500
Oklahoma: +150
Oklahoma State: +700
Texas: +140
Texas A&M: +5000
Texas Tech: +5000
StatFox Steve"s Take: It would seem that the North Division representative in the Big 12 will have little to no chance to win the conference title game in December. That division boasts some good offenses in Kansas and Nebraska, but the teams in the South are deemed to be far more complete. As usual, it looks like this league will come down to the Red River Rivalry game between the Longhorns and Sooners, as it"s difficult to envision a scenario in which the winning club loses two other games in Big 12 play. I"ll personally side with Oklahoma and take the +150.
NORTH DIVISION
COLORADO BUFFALOES
Where: Boulder, CO
Head Coach: Dan Hawkins, 4th year
2008 Record: 5-7 SU, 4-7 ATS
Facility: Folsom Field
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 4
Lettermen Returning: 53
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -9.1 (#100 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -5.9 (#92 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 38 (#66 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 44.23 (#30 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 5-7, 13-24 (35%)
Overall ATS: 4-7, 13-22 (37%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 7-9 (44%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 6-13 (32%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-6, 8-16 (33%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-2, 6-5 (55%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-5, 7-17 (29%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 20.2 (100) - 29.3 (87)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 318.5 (95) - 381.6 (79)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.53 (106) - 5.48 (73)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.4 (98) - 4.38 (87)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 5.78 (101) - 6.8 (60)
Turnover Differential: -0.58 (97)
2009 OUTLOOK: The Buffaloes opened the 2008 season with three consecutive victories, a great encore to their ‘07 Independence Bowl appearance. Then came reality. The fourth game, the final non-conference tilt, was a loss to Florida State. Then the Big 12 season started and with it came four losses in the first five games. This year could be a different story, though, and perhaps a return to a bowl game. Colorado has a decent non-conference slate (except for the trip to West Virginia) and after opening with Texas in the conference, has five consecutive winnable games.
OFFENSE: Once again, quarterback is one position that will not be a problem for the Buffaloes. The question is, who gets the starting role? Junior Cody Hawkins ceded playing time to sophomore Tyler Hansen late last season, and head coach Dan Hawkins says the battle will be contested through the summer and the winner will be “whoever moves the club.” If the spring game is any indication, Cody Hawkins was 12-for-21 for 195 yards and two touchdowns, while Hansen was 4-for-10 and was sacked four times. Josh Smith and Scotty McKnight return as wide receivers, but part of Colorado"s problem was moving the ball through the air, gaining only 10.3 yards per catch. Jason Espinoza showed in the spring game he can catch the long ball. Demetrius Sumler and Rodney Stewart, who was Colorado"s leading rusher before breaking his leg late last year, are back to anchor the ground game. With several options at tight end, the Buffs can also utilize a twotight end set as part of the offense. The line, beset by injuries last year, should be Colorado"s deepest unit. In late March, both offensive tackle Ryan Miller and guard Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner were officially granted medical hardships for the 2008 season and have regained the time they lost when both went down with injuries. Miller remains a sophomore, with three years to play, and Tuioti-Mariner is a redshirt freshman with four years to play.
DEFENSE: In the pass-happy Big 12, the Buffs actually ranked first in pass defense with 215 yards per game allowed. Of course, that was only good for 72nd nationally and they still gave up more than 381 yards and 29 points per game. So it doesn"t bode well that Colorado has lost tackle Brandon Nicolas, end Maurice Lucas, tackle George Hypolite and outside linebacker Brad Jones. That"s a huge hit to the defensive front seven. Conrad Obi and Lagrone Shields are early favorites to play opposite Marquez Herrond at end. Jeff Smart and Shaun Mohler are back at linebacker, and the cornerbacks are pretty good, but Colorado lost both safeties and will need some depth there. Still, some new names emerged during the spring game that figure to give Hawkins some optimism. Linebacker Marcus Burton, in particular, finished the game with eight tackles, two sacks and a fumble recovery.
PREDICTION: The non-conference schedule isn"t as brutal as it usually is, thank goodness. If the Buffaloes can avoid the injury bug again, as they lost 121 man games to injury or illness last year, there"s a real chance they can get back to a bowl game. Only time will tell if Colorado is ready to improve.
IOWA STATE CYCLONES
Where: Ames, IA
Head Coach: Paul Rhoads, 1st year
2008 Record: 2-10 SU, 5-6 ATS
Facility: Jack Trice Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 6
Lettermen Returning: 52
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -10.5 (#105 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -11.1 (#105 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 31 (#87 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 42.08 (#48 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 2-10, 9-27 (25%)
Overall ATS: 5-6, 14-19 (42%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 7-10 (41%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 7-9 (44%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 10-14 (42%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-1, 1-6 (14%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-5, 13-13 (50%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 25.3 (59) - 35.8 (112)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 386.8 (44) - 451.7 (111)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.51 (54) - 6.72 (119)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.11 (63) - 4.82 (99)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.81 (69) - 8.95 (119)
Turnover Differential: +0.33 (41)
2009 OUTLOOK: The Gene Chizik experiment is over. After two losing seasons, including just two Big 12 Conference victories, Chizik (somehow) got the Auburn head coaching gig (much to Charles Barkley"s dismay). So, naturally, Iowa State brought in Auburn defensive coordinator Paul Rhoads to take over. Rhoads has never been a head coach before, but has ties to Iowa State—he grew up 20 minutes from the campus and was an assistant coach there in the 1990s. Rhoads won"t find the cupboard bare. Iowa State does have some talent and depth on the team—good enough to be competitive in its non-conference schedule, but not nearly as strong to contend in the Big 12 Conference.
OFFENSE: Good, but inconsistent. Quarterback Austen Arnaud had a stellar showing in his first season as a starter. The junior led a Cyclone attack that averaged nearly 250 yards passing and 140 yards rushing per game. Junior Alexander Robinson returns at running back, as do six wide receivers who caught at least 15 passes. The offensive line is experienced, as seven returners earned multiple starts a season ago. Problem
DEFENSE: This is where the problem lies. Starting with the final non-conference game, a loss to UNLV, and continuing through the eight conference games, Iowa State gave up 34, 35, 28, 35, 49, 59, 28, 52 and 38 points. Rhoads will be asked to make his biggest contribution here with his defensive background. Though, what does he have to work with? The loss of defensive end Kurtis Taylor will hurt, but Christopher Lyle is a capable replacement. Linebackers Justin Rumple, Fred Garrin, Josh Raven and Jesse Smith all return, as do safety James Smith and cornerbacks Kennard Banks, Ter"ran Benton and Leonard Johnson. There"s good depth and a nice rotation there to choose from, but the big question is whether the talent is there. We"ll find out in the early going.
PREDICTION: If the Cyclones can beat archrival Iowa, it wouldn"t be a surprise to see them come out of the non-conference slate undefeated at 4-0. Then it has games against Kansas State (in Kansas City) and Baylor at home, sandwiched around a trip to Kansas to play the Jayhawks. Winning six games isn"t likely, but not out of the question, either.
KANSAS JAYHAWKS
Where: Lawrence, KS
Head Coach: Mark Mangino, 8th year
2008 Record: 8-5 SU, 7-5 ATS
Facility: Memorial Field
Offense: One-Back Set - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 7
Lettermen Returning: 42
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +4.5 (#46 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +8.1 (#26 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 52 (#24 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 44.83 (#23 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 8-5, 26-12 (68%)
Overall ATS: 7-5, 24-11 (69%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 12-6 (67%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-2, 12-5 (71%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 16-8 (67%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-2, 16-5 (76%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-3, 8-6 (57%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 33.4 (23) - 28.8 (83)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 431.8 (21) - 396.7 (90)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.94 (27) - 5.56 (78)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.7 (83) - 3.93 (60)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.93 (22) - 6.84 (61)
Turnover Differential: +0.31 (42)
2009 OUTLOOK: Head coach Mark Mangino brought the Jayhawks to the pinnacle two years ago with a 12-1 mark and a berth in the Orange Bowl. Last year, though, although Kansas slipped to 8-5, it still earned another bowl berth (victory over Minnesota at the Insight Bowl) and showed that Mangino has the makings of a consistent winning program. The Jayhawks are no longer a surprise team, but with everybody focusing on Oklahoma, Texas and even Oklahoma State, in the Big 12, Kansas is a strong sleeper candidate to watch out for.
OFFENSE: Plain and simple, this team is loaded on offense. Quarterback Todd Reesing heads into the season as the fourth-leading passer in the country after throwing for 3,888 yards. He has a 20-6 record as a starter, while guiding Kansas to back-to-back bowl victories. Reesing will be throwing to what is arguably the best wide receiving tandem in the country in Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier. Briscoe heads into the season as the nation"s third-leading returning receiver by receiving yards (108.2 per game). In just two seasons he already ranks second in school history with 135 career receptions, is fourth in yards with 1,903 and owns the school mark for career touchdowns with 22. Meier is the nation"s second-leading returning receiver by receptions (7.5 per game). The line is solid, to say the least. Jeremiah Hatch, once a starter at right tackle, took over the left tackle duties and returns, as do fellow linemen Adrian Mayes and Jeff Spikes, who started the last nine games at right tackle. The ground game could be the team"s Achilles" heel if defenses are allowed to focus primarily on Reesing. Jake Sharp became a reliable runner and receiver out of the backfield, but averaged only 66 yards per game on the ground. Improvement is a must to balance out the offense.
DEFENSE: The biggest question on the defensive side of the ball will be how to replace all three starting linebackers. The trio of James Holt (2008 All-Big 12 second team), Joe Mortensen (2007 All-Big 12 second team) and Mike Rivera (three-time All-Big 12 honorable mention) started a combined 103 games and recorded 821 tackles. However, seven starters return to a unit which ranked fourth in the league in rushing defense and third in pass-efficiency defense. Among the returnees are All-Big 12 firstteam selection Darrell Stuckey. The safety had a tremendous junior season, registering 98 tackles and picking off five passes. Stuckey"s leadership was invaluable as the Jayhawks revamped their secondary in the last half of the year. The front four is paced by tackle Caleb Blakesley and end Jake Laptad, who both earned All-Big 12 honorablemention accolades.
PREDICTION: We say here first Kansas starts 6-0—non-conference wins over Northern Colorado, UTEP, Duke and Southern Miss, and conference-opening victories over Iowa State and at Colorado—are likely. Then things become a little hairy with games against Oklahoma and Texas Tech. If the Jayhawks could sneak a win in one of those games, they"d be looking at a one- or two-loss conference season.
KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
Where: Manhattan, KS
Head Coach: Bill Snyder, 1st year
2008 Record: 5-7 SU, 4-7 ATS
Facility: Snyder Family Stadium
Offense: Pro Set - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 49
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -0.9 (#72 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -3.6 (#82 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 36 (#70 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 41.08 (#55 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 5-7, 17-20 (46%)
Overall ATS: 4-7, 15-19 (44%)
at Home ATS: 1-5, 8-10 (44%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-2, 7-9 (44%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 11-13 (46%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-3, 7-9 (44%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-4, 8-10 (44%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 34.9 (19) - 35.8 (111)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 402.1 (34) - 479.1 (118)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.79 (34) - 6.21 (106)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.9 (74) - 5.2 (109)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.61 (31) - 7.4 (90)
Turnover Differential: -0.58 (96)
2009 OUTLOOK: Hey, it"s not often that a coach gets to play in the facility that"s named after him. But after the three-year Ron Prince experiment, Kansas State decided to move forward by looking behind. The school has brought back the coach that put the Wildcat football program on the map, re-hiring Bill Snyder. He"ll have his work cut out for him—Snyder is losing a top-notch quarterback in Josh Freeman. Still, if the schedule breaks right, and the old Snyder magic returns, Kansas State will be right back on the road to respectability.
OFFENSE: Snyder has always been known as something of an offensive whiz, and it"s not like the cupboard is completely bare. All three running backs return, including Lamark Brown, who made the transition from wide receiver. Sophomore Logan Dold and senior Keithen Valentine are also in the mix. Three talented wideouts also return in Brandon Banks, Attrail Snipes and Aubrey Quarles. Banks, who was selected as the Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year, led the Wildcats in receptions (67), receiving yards (1,049), and receiving touchdowns (nine). Quarles finished with a respectable 34 receptions. There is a little uncertainty on the line—three starters are gone—but four players who started at least three games each are back, led by tackle Nick Stringer, an honorable- mention All-Big 12 selection. The Wildcats also return an eight-game starter at guard in senior Brock Unruh, a five-game starter in guard/center Zach Kendall and three-game starters at guard in Colten Freeze and Eric Benoit. But everything starts with the quarterback, of course, and the early favorite with the most game experience would appear to be junior Carson Coffman, who saw action in six of the Wildcats" games, completed 61 percent of his passes for a total of 282 yards and a touchdown. Coffman will battle with current redshirt freshmen Collin Klein and Joseph Kassanavoid, as well as junior-college transfer Daniel Thomas. Watch out for Thomas—he originally signed with Kansas State for the 2008 season and is considered a dual threat, something that Snyder has been known to utilize in the past.
DEFENSE: Sure, eight starters return, but this was a unit that was ranked in the bottom half of the conference in total defense. Of the three losses, one was huge—Ian Campbell, a three-time All-Big 12 selection, recorded 47 tackles, including eight for loss, which was second on the team. He also tallied a team-best 4.5 sacks and blocked a school-record three field-goal attempts. Much will be expected of sophomore Brandon Harold, who saw time at both end and tackle, was one of two Wildcat true freshmen to start this past season. He totaled 45 tackles (10.5 for loss) and three sacks, en route to honorable-mention all-conference honors. Eric Childs is at the other end of the front four. Two of three starting linebackers return, and three of the four defensive backs also are back—and there is depth there, as Kansas State went out and recruited seven defensive backs.
PREDICTION: We never count out a Snyder- coached team. It wouldn"t shock us to see Kansas State start out 6-2, with the only losses coming in games at UCLA and Texas Tech. But with the uncertainty at quarterback, it wouldn"t shock us to see the Wildcats sitting at 2-6, either, before taking on Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas and Nebraska.
MISSOURI TIGERS
Where: Columbia, MO
Head Coach: Gary Pinkel, 9th year
2008 Record: 10-4 SU, 5-8 ATS
Facility: Faurot Field
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 5
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 5
Lettermen Returning: 44
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +15 (#14 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +16.2 (#11 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 53 (#20 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 43.08 (#36 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 10-4, 30-11 (73%)
Overall ATS: 5-8, 22-16 (58%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 10-6 (63%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-5, 12-10 (55%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-6, 13-13 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-6, 18-11 (62%)
as Underdog ATS: 0-2, 4-5 (44%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 42.2 (6) - 27.2 (70)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 482.9 (8) - 411.5 (100)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.88 (7) - 5.27 (62)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 5.12 (14) - 3.43 (24)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.19 (19) - 6.89 (65)
Turnover Differential: -0.29 (81)
2009 OUTLOOK: It was a huge letdown for the Tigers. Coming off a 12-2 campaign, Missouri had Heisman hopeful Chase Daniel at quarterback and Jeremy Maclin at wide receiver and was dreaming of Big 12 titles—and beyond. Instead, after drubbing Nebraska to open the conference season, the Tigers dropped back-to-back games to Oklahoma State and Texas. National title aspirations? Gone. Although they did win the North to advance to the Big 12 Conference championship game, they were drubbed by Oklahoma. BCS Bowl bid? Gone. Still, it"s clear the program turned the corner under head coach Gary Pinkel. But this is clearly going to be a rebuilding year.
OFFENSE: Daniel was never in the mix for the Heisman Trophy but he still had another terrific year, and his loss will hurt the offense tremendously. Right now, the hunt for a new signal-caller is a four-man mix, with Blaine Gabbert leading the charge. Gabbert was recruited as one of the country"s top prospects and has a perfect 6-5 build. He"ll be pushed by Blaine Dalton, who along with Ashton Glaser from Arkansas, graduated early and enrolled at Missouri. Maclin will be difficult to replace as well—not because he caught 80 balls, but simply for his big-game, big-threat ability to spread a defense. Pinkel has to hope Jared Perry and Danario Alexander are ready when the season begins, since both had knee surgery over the winter. For a while, anyway, expect Missouri to primarily run the ball, behind Derrick Washington and De"Vion Moore. The former scored 17 times in 2008 and is not only an accomplished runner, but a receiving threat out of the backfield as well. The latter is a Dave Meggett-type of back—now you see him, now you don"t. Three of the five starters return on the line, including senior right guard Kurtis Gregory, junior center Tim Barnes and sophomore left tackle Elvis Fisher, from a unit that was 16th in the country in sacks allowed. It should be just as good again.
DEFENSE: Ugh. That"s all we can say about Missouri"s stop unit. Oh, Sean Weatherspoon is awesome, no question. He"s even our bet to win the Butkus Award as the country"s best linebacker. But he can"t do it all by himself. What was once thought to be a huge strength going into last year turned out to be Missouri"s complete undoing. The secondary was just awful, despite the presence of safety William Moore, who has since graduated. Missouri was dead last in the conference in pass defense and 117th in the nation. And in addition to Moore, two other starters are gone, leaving Pinkel to completely rebuild this unit. Part of the problem is that the Tigers don"t get any push up front. Nose tackle Jaron Baston is the only starter returning on the front four, so expect another rebuilding project here. End Brian Coulter, a Florida State transfer, is expected to help. Weatherspoon made 155 tackles for the Tigers, but he might need to make 255 this time around with the inexperience surrounding him.
PREDICTION: Are the Tigers a .500 team after losing so much talent? Missouri still won 10 games, despite a horrid pass defense, which doesn"t bode well playing in the passhappy Big 12 Conference. The Tigers can"t count on their offense to bail them out of games anymore with both Daniel and Maclin now playing on Sundays in the NFL instead of on Saturdays in college.
NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
Where: Lincoln, NE
Head Coach: Bo Pelini, 2nd year
2008 Record: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS
Facility: Memorial Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 5
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 7
Lettermen Returning: 46
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +6.8 (#32 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +10.1 (#22 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 50 (#27 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 44.42 (#28 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 9-4, 23-16 (59%)
Overall ATS: 7-6, 17-21 (45%)
at Home ATS: 3-5, 10-11 (48%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-1, 7-10 (41%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 11-14 (44%)
as Favorite ATS: 6-4, 13-12 (52%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-2, 4-9 (31%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 35.4 (17) - 28.5 (81)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 450.8 (12) - 349.8 (55)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.38 (17) - 5.66 (88)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.54 (41) - 3.67 (38)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.45 (14) - 7.85 (107)
Turnover Differential: -0.92 (110)
2009 OUTLOOK: Watch out for the Cornhuskers! The swagger is starting to come back, and fans and alums are comfortable with second-year Nebraska man Bo Pelini. Nebraska finished last year by winning six of its final seven games, including a Gator Bowl win over Clemson. And there"s something to be said for continuity up top, too. Pelini returns his entire coaching staff for the 2009 season. The last time Nebraska had its full coaching staff remain the same from one season to the next was in 2001-02, when Frank Solich"s staff was unchanged. Since that year, Nebraska has had two head coaching changes and at least one assistant coach change in each season.
OFFENSE: Nebraska returns a good mix of skill, along with three starters up front on the offensive line from a unit that finished among the top 20 nationally in scoring, passing and total offense. But quarterback Joe Ganz is gone, as are two of the top five receivers in school history and a running back who ranks in the top five in Nebraska history in all-purpose yards. Junior Zac Lee is the frontrunner to grab the vacant quarterback spot. The 6-2, 210- pound Lee has similar size and skills as Ganz and brings good mobility to the position. Roy Helu Jr. and Quentin Castille are a terrific two-headed rushing monster. Helu Jr. led Nebraska in rushing with 803 yards and seven touchdowns and played his best football in November. Helu"s average of 6.4 yards per carry was the best by a Husker in seven seasons. Castille produced six rushing touchdowns of his own and gained 467 yards as a sophomore. He finished the season with a career- high 125 rushing yards in the Huskers" Gator Bowl victory. The line won"t be an issue. Despite the loss of three starters, Nebraska has always had great depth here—and it might even be bolstered by the return of guard Andy Christensen, who at press time was awaiting word on whether he will receive a sixth season of eligibility from the NCAA.
DEFENSE: This was a vastly improved unit from 2007, when the defense was last in the Big 12 in sacks and 117th in the country in turnover margin. Nebraska was the national leader in defensive improvement in rushing defense and team sacks. The Huskers improved their rush defense by 115.7 yards per game, while a 22-sack improvement tied with Minnesota for the greatest gain in the country. Nebraska"s total defense average saw an improvement of 126.9 yards per game, the fourth-best improvement nationally. The Huskers" ranking in total defense improved 57 spots. Senior defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is the anchor here. Suh finished as Nebraska"s leader in several defensive categories. He had 7.5 sacks, including 5.5 in the final four games of the season. His 19 tackles for loss ranked eighth on the all-time Nebraska single- season list, with 11 of those coming in the final four games. The 19 tackles for loss were the third-most ever by a Cornhusker interior lineman and the most since Kenny Walker had 21 in 1990. The very strong unit also features tackle Ty Steinkuhler and defensive end Pierre Allen. The secondary returns three starters—cornerback Anthony West and safeties Larry Asante and Matt O"Hanlon.
PREDICTION: It"s hard to call Nebraska a “sleeper” team, but that"s just what the Cornhuskers could be. There"s no reason to think the Cornhuskers can"t be 6-2—or even 7-1—before hosting Oklahoma the first Saturday in November. After that, who knows?
SOUTH DIVISION
BAYLOR BEARS
Where: Waco, TX
Head Coach: Arthur Briles, 2nd year
2008 Record: 4-8 SU, 8-3 ATS
Facility: Floyd Casey Stadium
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 9
Lettermen Returning: 50
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -1.3 (#75 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -0.5 (#69 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 43 (#48 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 46.58 (#7 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 4-8, 11-25 (31%)
Overall ATS: 8-3, 15-18 (45%)
at Home ATS: 4-2, 7-10 (41%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-1, 8-8 (50%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-2, 10-14 (42%)
as Favorite ATS: 8-0, 10-2 (83%)
as Underdog ATS: 0-3, 5-16 (24%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 28 (42) - 29.3 (88)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 376.4 (45) - 393.2 (86)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.86 (30) - 5.3 (63)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.88 (21) - 3.57 (30)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.48 (35) - 7.17 (80)
Turnover Differential: +1.33 (4)
2009 OUTLOOK: Are the times a-changin" in Waco? Normally, teams don"t get excited about winning four games. But the Bears, seemingly forever in rebuilding mode, took a big step forward in head coach Art Briles" first year. Conference wins over Iowa State and Texas A&M were huge confidence boosters. Moreover, the play of quarterback Robert Griffin levels the playing field to some degree. Of its six Big 12 losses, Baylor was right there with Nebraska, Missouri and Texas Tech. It certainly bodes well for the future.
OFFENSE: Blake Szymanski started 10 games in 2007, breaking nearly every Baylor single-season and single-game passing record. Arguably, he is now the best backup quarterback in college football behind Griffin. The sophomore, along with junior tailback Jay Finley and senior fullback Andrew Judy, gives Baylor the ability to strike at any time. Griffin turned heads with a sensational season that earned him Freshman All-America and Big 12 Freshman of the Year honors. He threw for 2,091 yards and 15 touchdowns, and ran for 843 yards and 13 scores. Finley is back after rushing for a team-high 865 yards and seven touchdowns as a sophomore. His 72.1 yards per game ranked fifth in the Big 12 and led a Baylor rushing attack that ranked third in the conference and 21st nationally (195.8 yards per game). Griffin should have no problem picking a receiver— seven of the team"s top eight pass catchers are back. Sophomore Kendall Wright, who participated in the final week of spring practice after playing on the basketball team, led a receiving corps that totaled 458 yards. Senior tight end Justin Akers hauled in four receptions for 61 yards and a touchdown. Now the question is, who"s blocking for them? Guard James Barnard and center J.D. Walton are back, but right tackle Jordan Hearvey missed spring drills while recovering from a knee injury. The Bears also need to replace the all-important left tackle position, as well as right guard. Penciled into one starting tackle is junior Danny Watkins, a Canadian who enrolled in January and went through spring drills. Expected to battle for time at the other tackle position are juniorcollege transfer Marquis Franklin and returnees Cameron Kaufhold, a redshirt freshman, and junior Chris Griesenbeck. Remaining options at guard are freshman Ivory Wade and sophomore transfer Philip Blake.
DEFENSE: The line will be strong, returning fifth-year seniors Trey Bryant, a noseguard with 23 career starts, and Jason Lamb, an end-turned-tackle with a team-high 36 games played. Penn State transfer Phil Taylor is penciled in as a starter at one tackle after dominating play on the practice squad in 2008 and in spring drills. But the defense begins and ends with linebacker Joe Pawelek. He ranked seventh nationally in tackles (10.7 stops per game) and seventh in interceptions per game—the only player ranked in the top 10 of both categories. “You can"t find anyone in the nation that you would rather have calling your defensive signals than Joe Pawelek,” Briles said. The secondary is solid and the Bears did make dramatic improvements on defense. In 2007, the unit gave up 462 yards per game. Last year it yielded 393.
PREDICTION: Our guess is that Baylor should be 3-1 coming out of its non-conference schedule. The conference opener at Big 12 power Oklahoma is likely to be demoralizing, and the Bears must go on the road to play the two teams it beat in Big 12 play last year. Baylor might end up being the best 4-8 team in the country again.
OKLAHOMA SOONERS
Where: Norman, OK
Head Coach: Bob Stoops, 11th year
2008 Record: 12-2 SU, 10-3 ATS
Facility: Memorial Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 5
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 9
Lettermen Returning: 43
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +26.6 (#3 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +30.2 (#2 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 75 (#2 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 46.50 (#10 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 12-2, 34-8 (81%)
Overall ATS: 10-3, 26-14 (65%)
at Home ATS: 4-1, 13-4 (76%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 6-2, 13-10 (57%)
vs Conference ATS: 7-2, 17-10 (63%)
as Favorite ATS: 10-3, 24-13 (65%)
as Underdog ATS: 0-0, 2-1 (67%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 51.1 (1) - 24.5 (58)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 547.9 (3) - 367.7 (68)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.93 (6) - 5.17 (52)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.72 (27) - 3.47 (25)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 9.46 (3) - 6.68 (58)
Turnover Differential: +1.64 (1)
2009 OUTLOOK: Oklahoma won its sixth league title in seven appearances in 2008, both Big 12 records. It set a record by scoring 61 or more points in five consecutive games. Quarterback Sam Bradford won the Heisman Trophy. Its only conference blemish was a 45-35 loss to Texas, but because of Big 12 Conference rules that break divisional ties, the Sooners went on to the league title game based on poll results. So why does it all have such a hollow feeling? Because once again “Big Game” Bob Stoops wasn"t so big when need be. After losing consecutive Fiesta Bowls, Oklahoma ended up in the national championship game, where its vaunted offense was shut down in a 24-14 loss to Florida in Miami. Stoops could be coach for life in Norman if he wanted to, but sooner or later Oklahoma has to stop acting like Bud Grant and the Minnesota Vikings and win another of these national title games they keep popping up in.
OFFENSE: Simply loaded. Maybe the best offense in the country. Bradford threw for 50 touchdowns against only eight interceptions, racking up 4,720 passing yards and an efficiency rating of 180.84. It was simply a phenomenal year and it manifested itself in Bradford upsetting Florida"s Tim Tebow for the Heisman Trophy, if not the national title. Tight end Jermaine Gresham leads a talented receiving corps. Gresham caught 65 balls for 950 yards and 14 touchdowns last season. And lest you think this is a ‘pass-first, pass-second, pass-third" kind of offense, think again. Running back Chris Brown, who also returns, gained 1,220 yards on the ground and scored 20 times. Oklahoma"s top seven rushers are back, in fact. The offense scored 99 touchdowns, a school record, and 716 points, a modern college football record. Eighteen of those touchdowns came on drives that totaled 60 seconds or less. Five times, six different players scored in the same game. Oh, and forget about graduation having any ill-effect on the offensive line. Although three starters are gone, two are back—and Oklahoma will have the services of LSU transfer Jarvis Jones, a tackle.
DEFENSE: If you"re going to nit-pick the Sooners, this is the area. Oklahoma gave up 343 points, but let"s face it, you can only go to the offensive well so many times and win those 58-35 games before it catches up to you. In defense of the stop unit, Oklahoma was breaking in two new cornerbacks and, well, there"s something to be said for having 30- and 40-point leads and getting a little complacent. Cornerbacks Dominque Franks and Brian Jackson are both back, leading a group that picked off 19 passes for the second consecutive year, although both safeties are gone and need to be replaced. Other than that, this unit returns virtually intact. Weakside linebacker Travis Lewis anchors a front seven that is solid. Lewis had 144 tackles, good for third in the country. Oklahoma remains opportunistic—the team had 34 takeaways and 22 were turned into touchdowns.
PREDICTION: Ho-hum, same old, same old. Oklahoma enters this campaign as the prohibitive Big 12 favorite and a national championship contender. Unless you want to count a non-conference tilt against the Hurricanes in Miami, there isn"t a difficult road game to be had. As always, the season will come down to the neutral-site battle against Texas in Dallas.
OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS
Where: Stillwater, OK
Head Coach: Mike Gundy, 5th year
2008 Record: 9-4 SU, 8-4 ATS
Facility: Boone PickensStadium
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 6
Lettermen Returning: 36
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +12.7 (#21 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +13.3 (#16 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 55 (#13 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 45.92 (#15 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 9-4, 23-16 (59%)
Overall ATS: 8-4, 20-15 (57%)
at Home ATS: 5-1, 10-6 (63%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 10-9 (53%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 12-11 (52%)
as Favorite ATS: 8-0, 15-4 (79%)
as Underdog ATS: 0-4, 5-11 (31%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 40.8 (9) - 28.1 (77)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 487.7 (6) - 405.5 (94)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.98 (5) - 5.61 (84)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 5.48 (8) - 4.33 (85)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 9.66 (2) - 6.63 (54)
Turnover Differential: +0.38 (36)
2009 OUTLOOK: Last year we wrote, “the consensus is that head coach Mike Gundy has the Cowboys on the verge of being a dominant program in the Big 12. This will be a telling year. There needs to be continued improvement, especially with the schedule breaking right.” And that"s exactly how it panned out, as Oklahoma State went 9-4 overall. In four years under Gundy, the Cowboys" Big 12 record has gone from 1-7 to 3-5 to 4-4 to 5-3. Three of Oklahoma State"s four losses came to teams ranked first, second or third in the Associated Press poll at the time of the game. The team finished the season ranked No. 16 by the Associated Press, No. 18 in the USA Today balloting and No. 13 in the final Bowl Championship Series standings. The Cowboys were ranked in the final Associated Press poll for the first time since 1997, and the No. 16 final ranking was the highest by Oklahoma State since the ‘87 and ‘88 teams both ended at No. 11 in the Associated Press. So, what"s next? It"s time to start thinking championships.
OFFENSE: Oklahoma State has, arguably, the best set of returning skill players in the country. Eight starters return from the second- most prolific offense in school history (488 yards per game) and the sixth-most productive offense in the country. Wide receiver Dez Bryant, running back Kendall Hunter and quarterback Zac Robinson are as talented and as dangerous as they come. Bryant finished among the top three nationally in four major categories, Hunter was seventh nationally in rushing and averages 6.5 yards per carry for his career. Robinson returns as the NCAA"s fifth-rated active career passer. He was also fifth in the country last season in that category and is already Oklahoma State"s career leader in total offense. A year ago he recorded just the second 3,000-yard passing season in Oklahoma State history. You want more numbers? Thanks to the air-ground combo of Bryant and Hunter, Oklahoma State was the only school in the country with a 1,400-yard receiver and a 1,400-yard rusher. Hunter and Bryant combined to score 38 touchdowns. Another national honors candidate lurks on the offensive line in returning first-team All-Big 12 tackle Russell Okung, who will be entering his fourth season as a starter and anchors a solid unit.
DEFENSE: One of the headlines of the offseason for Oklahoma State football has been Bill Young"s return to Stillwater. The former Cowboy player, graduate assistant and assistant coach is Oklahoma State"s new defensive coordinator. Young was on the Kansas staff that led the Jayhawks to the Orange Bowl in 2007 and he has served as the defensive coordinator at USC, Oklahoma and Ohio State during his career. He"ll need to completely revamp the Cowboys up front. Oklahoma State allowed 405.5 yards and 28.1 points per game last year. It was dead last in the Big 12 in sacks, which put enormous pressure on the secondary in a passhappy league. To that end, Young is moving Derek Burton from end to tackle, hoping his quickness will produce more pressure up the middle. End Jeremiah Price had a pair of sacks in the spring game.
PREDICTION: Let us be the first to say it—Oklahoma State will be undefeated at 11-0 when it goes to Norman on Nov. 28 for the regular-season finale against archrival Oklahoma. Everything breaks right for this team. The Cowboys get Georgia, Houston, Texas, Texas Tech and Colorado at home and three of its four conference road games—at Texas A&M, Baylor and Iowa State—are all eminently winnable. It would surprise us if this team isn"t in the national championship picture at Thanksgiving.
TEXAS LONGHORNS
Where: Austin, TX
Head Coach: Mack Brown, 12th year
2008 Record: 12-1 SU, 9-4 ATS
Facility: Memorial Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Lettermen Returning: 44
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +23.6 (#6 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +28 (#4 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 66 (#4 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 44.83 (#24 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 12-1, 32-7 (82%)
Overall ATS: 9-4, 21-17 (55%)
at Home ATS: 5-2, 11-8 (58%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-2, 10-9 (53%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 12-12 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 6-4, 17-17 (50%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-0, 4-0 (100%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 42.4 (5) - 18.8 (18)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 477.2 (9) - 342.9 (52)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.5 (15) - 5.26 (60)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.33 (52) - 3.05 (9)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.95 (6) - 6.87 (62)
Turnover Differential: +0.15 (49)
2009 OUTLOOK: Ah, what could have been. Now Mack Brown knows what Joe Paterno feels like. Paterno has had three unbeaten teams during his illustrious career at Penn State that didn"t even sniff a national championship, thanks to the voters. Well, the more things change, the more they stay the same—voters muscled Texas out of the Big 12 Conference and, likely, the national championship game by moving Oklahoma ahead of the Longhorns in the polls late in the season, even though Texas beat the Sooners by 10 points. Texas" only loss was a literal last-second defeat on the road to Texas Tech. Needless to say, the Longhorns will be playing with a chip on their collective shoulders this season.
OFFENSE: Loaded. Quarterback Colt McCoy was the Heisman Trophy runner-up to Oklahoma"s Sam Bradford. The senior threw for 3,859 yards, 34 touchdowns and eight interceptions. McCoy probably has more mobility than Bradford, as evidenced by his 561 yards rushing last year and he"s a heady, steady leader. Leading wide receiver Quan Cosby (teamleading 92 receptions) is gone, but McCoy"s favorite target, Jordan Shipley, got a sixth year of eligibility and he"s back. Last season Shipley caught 89 passes for 1,060 yards and 11 touchdowns. Running backs Fozzy Whittaker, Cody Johnson and Vondrell McGee all return. The tailback-by-committee approach worked fairly well, with a combined 1,300 yards rushing and 20 touchdowns. As for the offensive line, it"s the same old story. As we said last season, year in, year out, whether they go into the season with multiple returning starters or if they have to rebuild, the Longhorns produce one of the top lines in all of college football. Fortunately for Brown, this year"s version is losing just one starter. One tiny problem
DEFENSE: Dramatic improvement. Two years ago, the Longhorns gave up 25.2 points per game and an average of 277 yards passing, which is why Brown brought in defensive coordinator Will Muschamp from Auburn. Under Muschamp, Texas gave up 18.8 points per game and 259 yards passing. A year ago, the problem was a young secondary. This year, the issue will be how to replace four starters up front, including pass-rushing fiend Brian Orakpo, who was selected in the first round with the 13th overall pick by the Washington Redskins. Safeties Nolan Brewster and Earl Thomas drastically improved, with Thomas picking off McCoy in the spring game. Cornerbacks Aaron Williams and Chykie Brown are solid, and defensive backs Curtis Brown and Deon Beasley give this group great depth. Expect Muschamp to blitz far more in 2009 now that he has an experienced secondary. Muschamp favors the 4-2-5 scheme so don"t be surprised to see three safeties in there at times. Up front, Lamarr Houston is the only returner. He"ll shuffle from end to nose tackle depending on the emergence of backup tackle Ben Alexander. Senior Sergio Kindle (53 tackles, 14 for loss, 10 sacks) will be one of the top linebackers in the country.
PREDICTION: The non-conference slate is fairly easy so Texas" season will come down to the annual Red River Shootout with Oklahoma. Unfortunately, as the Longhorns saw last year, not even a victory guarantees conference titles. Still, Texas should be able to survive trips to Missouri and Texas A&M. The one key game that looms, besides Oklahoma, is the trip to Oklahoma State.
TEXAS A&M AGGIES
Where: College Station, TX
Head Coach: Mike Sherman, 2nd year
2008 Record: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS
Facility: Kyle Field
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 9
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Lettermen Returning: 48
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -12.4 (#109 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -8 (#97 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 35 (#75 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 45.83 (#16 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 4-8, 20-18 (53%)
Overall ATS: 4-8, 18-18 (50%)
at Home ATS: 2-5, 10-9 (53%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-3, 8-9 (47%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 14-10 (58%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-2, 9-6 (60%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-6, 9-12 (43%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 25 (64) - 37.4 (115)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 340.9 (78) - 461.9 (115)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.27 (71) - 6.36 (110)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 2.91 (111) - 5.19 (107)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.35 (38) - 7.98 (108)
Turnover Differential: -0.83 (107)
2009 OUTLOOK: As we wrote last year, part of new coach Mike Sherman"s main task was to restore some luster to a fading Texas A&M program. Losing to Arkansas State during the nonconference slate, and then to Baylor during Big 12 play, is not exactly the way to shine. It was simply a lost season for the Aggies as Sherman got his feet wetmaking the transition back to the college ranks from the Green Bay Packers. “We"re working on getting our guys to believe in themselves and each other so that they can go out there and play a tough Big 12 schedule,” Sherman said prior to spring ball. He"ll need a lot more than faith to accomplish that goal in Year Two.
OFFENSE: This is a numbers-driven game, and the numbers—or lack thereof—tell the story. Texas A&M returns quarterback Jerrod Johnson, and hopefully he"ll be better than the 11th ranked Big 12 quarterback he was as a sophomore. Add in the fact that the Aggies didn"t have a single player in the top 12 in the conference in rushing or receiving, a testament to their lack of quality skill players. As a team, Texas A&M was last in the league in rushing offense and 11th in total and scoring offense, a testament to the team"s woeful problems on the offensive line. Hopefully, this unit has improved because it does have some returning players, most notably emerging left tackle Michael Shumard, as well as some up-and-comers who will get a look, such as Josh Ayers and Lucas Patterson, who has moved over from the defensive side of the ball. Wide receiver Ryan Tannehill was given a shot at quarterback to unseat Johnson, but Tannehill—and the Aggies—is probably better off staying where he is.
DEFENSE: Texas A&M has to replace three players from a front four that already had problems getting in the backfield—the Aggies recorded just 16 sacks. And they couldn"t stop the rush, either. In a conference that featured a plethora of passing offenses and quarterbacks like Sam Bradford, Graham Harrell, Colt McCoy and Josh Freeman, Texas A&M"s stop unit allowed a conference-worst 219 yards rushing per game. The Aggies were 11th in total defense and gave up a Big 12- worst 37.4 points per game. The pass defense wasn"t bad, ranking fourth in the league, so that"s as good a place as any for Sherman to start revamping the defense. Senior Jordan Pugh, who moved from safety to cornerback last season, is being moved back to safety. Senior Matt Featherston, the team"s second-leading tackler, has moved from linebacker to end. The Aggies have high hopes and big plans for junior Von Miller, who is being asked to play the hybrid end/linebacker position. “We"re starting to solidify ourselves on the scheme and how we want to play defense,” Sherman said. “Last year we played with linebackers who never played linebacker in high school.”
PREDICTION: We thought Texas A&M had enough to get to a bowl game last year but we were shocked at how bad the program had really fallen—and it was evident with the season- opening defeat to Arkansas State. The schedule is favorable to get off to a good start, with three patsies in the non-conference at home and then a neutral site game versus Arkansas in Dallas. Home games against Baylor and Iowa State should be victories. After that, it"s a toss-up with tough games against Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Colorado, Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas State. We"d love to say the Aggies are going back to a bowl game—but we can"t and won"t.
TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
Where: Lubbock, TX
Head Coach: Mike Leach, 10th year
2008 Record: 11-2 SU, 5-5 ATS
Facility: Jones AT&T Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 6
Lettermen Returning: 48
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +15.9 (#11 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +16.2 (#12 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 55 (#13 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 46.08 (#13 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 11-2, 28-11 (72%)
Overall ATS: 5-5, 16-17 (48%)
at Home ATS: 2-2, 8-5 (62%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 8-12 (40%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 12-11 (52%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-4, 12-12 (50%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-1, 4-5 (44%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 43.8 (3) - 27.8 (75)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 531 (4) - 382.6 (80)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 7.05 (4) - 5.58 (81)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.83 (23) - 3.99 (65)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.11 (20) - 7.26 (85)
Turnover Differential: +0.62 (23)
2009 OUTLOOK: After what was arguably the best season in school history—the late blowout loss to Oklahoma and the Cotton Bowl defeat to Mississippi State aside—Texas Tech is going to be in a serious rebuilding mode. Unlike some of their brethren in the conference, the Red Raiders simply can"t reload. The most important returnee is head coach Mike Leach, who agreed on a new contract that extends his deal through the 2013 season. It was a contentious time, though, as Leach threatened to bolt before settling on the deal in late February. The contract includes a $250,000 bonus if Leach and Texas Tech win the national championship, a $75,000 bonus if it participates in a BCS Bowl and a $50,000 bonus if Leach is picked as national coach of the year. Doesn"t look like any of those will happen this year, though.
OFFENSE: If any program suffered a bigger loss than the Red Raiders did with the pass/catch tandem of quarterback Graham Harrell and wideout Michael Crabtree, we"d like to see it. Harrell threw for 5,111 yards and 41 touchdowns last year, while Crabtree caught 93 balls for 1,135 yards and 18 scores. This year? The combination most likely will be Taylor Potts to Detron Lewis. Potts has been in the program for three years and Leach does have a good track record of developing quarterbacks who fit the system. Potts was 20-for-27 for 211 yards and a score (with no interceptions) in the spring game. Lewis has all the makings of a No. 1 receiver. Heck, he caught 71 passes last year but was pretty much an afterthought because of the exploits of Crabtree. He"ll be the top guy this year, and returnees Blake Kelley and Harrison Jeffers are also pretty good. Tech"s Baron Hatch rushed for 742 yards, a darn good number in a pass-happy offense. He"s back, and it"s possible the Red Raiders might be more balanced offensively than at any other time in Leach"s nine seasons. The offensive line needs to replace three starters, but with the short drops and highefficiency passing game, it"s not as much a concern as replacing the skill players. “I don"t think it will change a bunch,” Leach said of the offense. “But what ends up is that different players and receivers will get more of a chance to emerge and play. Crabtree got so many catches, but now different players and receivers will do well. But I don"t think it will change that much.”
DEFENSE: Both top ends are gone, including Big 12 sack leader Brandon Williams and McKinner Dixon, who was suspended indefinitely during the spring and whose return is uncertain. Dixon was sixth in the league in sacks; Leach needs him to clean up his act and return to the field. Safety Darcel McBath, the leader in the secondary, is also gone. Daniel Howard showed some moves at right end during the spring game, picking up a couple of sacks. The linebackers are solid, led by Brian Duncan, who ranked 13th in the league in tackles. Despite McBath"s loss, the secondary is strong. Texas Tech was third in the conference in pass defense—yes, helped by the pressure Williams and Dixon put on up front—and fourth overall in defense. Safety Cody Davis is a tenacious player who will take over as the leader of the secondary.
PREDICTION: Don"t expect another 10-0 start. No sniffing around for a conference title, either. Bowl game? Of course. Leach has built himself a true program here. If Texas and Oklahoma are the cream of the crop, schools like Texas Tech and Oklahoma State aren"t far off. The difference, of course, is that the top schools can just plug in new players from year to year. The Red Raiders can"t and it will be evident this season.
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