It looks like yet another year without a national title contender for the ACC, a league chock-full of good and very good teams, but no "one-for-the-ages" team. For those of you scoring at home, the ACC sent teams to an NCAA-record 10 bowl games last year, but went just 4-6 in those contests. Read on as we take a closer look at the ACC and its 12 teams, offering up predictions for each while analyzing the conference title odds now available at Sportsbook.com.
The conference won"t have to wait for a chance to enhance its street cred as the opening weekend of the college football season pits three ACC teams against "name" foes—-Virginia Tech vs. Alabama in the Georgia Dome, Maryland at California, and N.C. State hosting South Carolina.
With 16 starters back (most notably, budding star tailback Darren Evans and defensive playmakers Jason Worilds, Stephan Virgil and Kam Chancellor) from last year"s league champ, Virginia Tech should again be the class of the ACC. Georgia Tech (9-4 last season), led by a pair of All-American candidates in tailback Jonathan Dwyer (1,395 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns) and safety Morgan Burnett (93 tackles, seven interceptions), seems best equipped to push the Hokies for the ACC Coastal Division top spot, while Florida State, Wake Forest and N.C. State appear to be the class of a well-balanced Atlantic Division.
The conference has two new head coaches in 2009. Clemson removed the interim tag from Dabo Sweeney (4-3 mark after replacing Tommy Bowden), while Frank Spaziani, Boston College"s defensive coordinator for the past decade, becomes the Eagles" head coach. Spaziani"s job got a whole lot harder when Mark Herzlich, the ACC"s top linebacker, was diagnosed with cancer in May and No. 1 quarterback Dominique Davis fell victim to academic woes and elected to transfer.
2009 PREDICTED FINISH
ACC Atlantic
1) Florida State
2) Wake Forest
3) N.C. State
4) Clemson
5) Maryland
6) Boston College
ACC Coastal
1) Virginia Tech
2) Georgia Tech
3) North Carolina
4) Miami (Fla.)
5) Virginia
6) Duke
Sportsbook.com Odds to Win the ACC Title in 2009
Boston College: +1500
Clemson: +700
Duke: +5000
Florida State: +350
Georgia Tech: +500
Maryland: +5000
Miami: +600
North Carolina: +600
North Carolina State: +1200
Virginia: +5000
Virginia Tech: +225
Wake Forest: +1800
StatFox Steve"s Take: There is no clear cut favorite in the ACC, though usual stalwarts like Virginia Tech & Florida State figure to contend. The odds favor playing an Atlantic team, as four of the top five teams in terms of odds are from that division. In that case, I"d go with the Seminoles. I wouldn"t dismiss Georgia Tech or North Carolina however. Those teams will have better offenses that Coastal-favored Virginia Tech this season.
ATLANTIC DIVISION
CLEMSON TIGERS
Where: Clemson, SC
Head Coach: Dabo Swinney, 1st year
2008 Record: 7-6 SU, 4-7 ATS
Facility: Clemson Memorial Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 53
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +7.8 (#27 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +4.9 (#42 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 54 (#17 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 42.83 (#42 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 7-6, 24-15 (62%)
Overall ATS: 4-7, 16-20 (44%)
at Home ATS: 2-3, 9-9 (50%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 7-11 (39%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 11-13 (46%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-5, 13-18 (42%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-2, 3-2 (60%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 25.2 (60) - 17.3 (13)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 329.4 (87) - 299.3 (18)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.15 (76) - 4.47 (11)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.36 (99) - 3.74 (42)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.08 (54) - 5.23 (2)
Turnover Differential: -0.08 (67)
2009 OUTLOOK: Clemson"s 2008 campaign could be labeled a tale of two seasons. The Tigers began the year in the top 10, but an early loss to Alabama signaled the beginning of the end of then coach Tommy Bowden, who was replaced by Dabo Swinney. After having the interim label removed, Swinney begins his first full year as head coach and will face a challenging task with nine ‘08 bowl teams in what promises to be a grueling schedule.
OFFENSE: The Tigers return seven starters that averaged 339.3 yards per game and ranked in the top five in the ACC in scoring, passing and total offense. With Cullen Harper gone, quarterback is the position that"ll get the most attention. Willy Korn has the most experience after playing in eight games as Harper"s backup. He played in six games last season before suffering a shoulder injury. After allowing more sacks than all but one ACC team, it can"t get any worse for the line, right? The good news is that everyone is back, headed by second-team All-ACC senior Thomas Austin, who will move from center to left guard. Sophomore Mason Cloy will move to center. Rounding out the line is left tackle Chris Hairston and sophomores Antoine McClain (right guard) and Landon Walker (right tackle). Senior C.J. Spiller is an explosive player and the focal point of the offense. Spiller has gained a school-record 4,907 yards in three years, including 629 yards rushing and 436 yards receiving last year, and has scored 12 touchdowns of 50 yards or more. Senior wide receiver Jacoby Ford has game-breaking ability after he reeled in 55 catches for 710 yards and four touchdowns. Xavier Dye (six catches), Marquan Jones and Terrence Ashe will all battle for the No. 2 receiver spot. Senior tight end Michael Palmer (12 catches, 160 yards, three touchdowns) is another reliable target.
DEFENSE: Eight starters return to a unit that ranked 25th in the nation in total, pass and scoring defense. However, the Tigers must replace Michael Hamlin and Chris Clemons, one of the most productive safety tandems in school history. The Tigers return cornerbacks Chris Chancelor and Crezdon Butler, who are both legitimate Thorpe Award candidates. Butler registered 52 tackles and four interceptions a year ago, giving him 10 picks for his career. Chancellor also picked off four passes, to go along with 37 tackles and nine pass breakups. Junior Byron Maxwell (54 tackles) is a hard hitter and will see plenty of time as a nickel back. Junior DeAndre McDaniel (77 stops) is being moved from linebacker to safety to fill one of the voids. Three starters return up front, led by senior Ricky Sapp, who made 28 tackles (10 for loss) before suffering a torn ACL against Virginia. Senior Kevin Alexander (34 tackles) and sophomore DaQuan Bowers (47) return at end and will form a solid rotation. Junior Jarvis Jenkins (36 tackles, 10 for loss) and sophomore Brandon Thompson will clog the middle. Senior Kavell Conner is the leader of the linebacker corps from his weakside position. He was Clemson"s top tackler with 125 stops. He"s joined by sophomore Brandon Maybe (87 tackles) and junior Scotty Cooper looks to be the starter on the strong side after making 28 tackles as a reserve.
PREDICTION: With Swinney at the helm, it"s the dawn of a new era for the first time in a decade. One thing the coach won"t have to contend with is lofty expectations. Unlike last year, the Tigers won"t appear in the preseason top 10. However, if Clemson gets production from the passing game, it is capable of good things and a bowl berth.
FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES
Where: Tallahassee, FL
Head Coach: Bobby Bowden, 34th year
2008 Record: 9-4 SU, 6-5 ATS
Facility: Doak S. Campbell Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 Multiple - Starters Returning: 5
Lettermen Returning: 36
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +13.2 (#18 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +8 (#29 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 54 (#15 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 46.92 (#6 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 9-4, 23-16 (59%)
Overall ATS: 6-5, 17-19 (47%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 8-11 (42%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-2, 9-8 (53%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 10-14 (42%)
as Favorite ATS: 6-5, 13-17 (43%)
as Underdog ATS: 0-0, 4-2 (67%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 33.4 (22) - 20.2 (28)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 369.6 (54) - 294.9 (15)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.52 (53) - 4.84 (28)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.75 (26) - 3.83 (53)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.48 (81) - 6.17 (28)
Turnover Differential: +0 (61)
2009 OUTLOOK: Florida State bounced back into the national spotlight last season, winning nine games and finishing in the Top 25 for the first time since 2005, and ending the campaign on a strong note by downing Wisconsin in the Champs Sports Bowl. Head coach Bobby Bowden, who begins his 34th season in Tallahassee, is one win behind Penn State"s Joe Paterno on the all-time victory list. However, the Seminoles will face a daunting schedule that includes 11 opponents that played in bowl games last season.
OFFENSE: With eight starters returning, the offense brings back the most returnees since 2004, which happened to be the last time the Seminoles won 10 games. In 2008, Florida State ranked first in the ACC in scoring offense (33.4 points per game) and second in total (371.8 yards per game) and rushing offense (179.1). Christian Ponder is coming off a solid campaign, rushing for 423 yards, which marked the fourth-highest total by a quarterback in school history. As far as a passing threat, Ponder threw for 2,006 yards, 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He"ll have to lessen his mistakes, as 2008 mega-recruit E.J. Manuel is lurking in the shadows. Ponder"s evolution as a passer could depend on how quickly his young receiving corps develops. However, redshirt sophomore Taiwan Easterling (30 catches, 322 yards) ruptured his left Achilles during winter conditioning and might not be ready for the start of the season. Aside from sophomore Bert Reed (23 catches), sophomore Jarmon Forston (8) and Rodney Owens (15) will have to be exceptional if the passing game is to do better than last year"s No. 82 ranking. Sophomore Jermaine Thomas will be asked to carry the load at running back and he proved more than capable after gaining 482 yards and three touchdowns. Also expect an increase in production from sophomore Carlton Jones, who impressed in the Champs Sports Bowl with 55 yards on four carries and one touchdown. The Seminoles will open with the same starting five on the line that finished last year, including sophomore tackles Andrew Datko and Zebrie Sanders, sophomore guard David Spurlock, junior guard Rodney Hudson, who was first-team All-ACC, and junior center Ryan McMahon. The quintet has combined for 78 career starts.
DEFENSE: Coordinator Mickey Andrews" defense led the nation in tackles for loss, was fourth in sacks and sixth in pass defense. Replacing both Everette Brown and Neefy Moffett at end is a tall task, but seniors Kevin McNeil and Markus White appear ready for the challenge. McNeil recorded four sacks and four tackles for loss, while White registered 29 tackles (5.5 for loss). Senior Kendrick Stewart is back at nose guard after finishing with 22 tackles (4.5 for loss) and two sacks. With Derek Nicholson and Toddrick Verdell graduating, the Seminoles lose their top two tacklers. True sophomores Nigel Bradham (29 tackles) and Nigel Carr sit atop the depth chart at outside linebacker. Junior Kendall Smith will get the first crack in the middle. Two seniors return in the secondary in cornerback Patrick Robinson (seven career interceptions) and safety Jamie Robinson (37 tackles).
PREDICTION: It"s been a quiet offseason for the Seminoles. And that"s a good thing as the program tries to win its first ACC championship in four years. To reach that goal, the Seminoles need a quantum leap from Ponder and some holes to be filled on defense. The latter has never been a problem, but the former will be a collaborative effort that includes a youthful supporting cast.
MARYLAND TERRAPINS
Where: College Park, MD
Head Coach: Ralph Friedgen, 9th year
2008 Record: 8-5 SU, 6-6 ATS
Facility: Byrd Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 4
Lettermen Returning: 39
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -0.7 (#70 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +1.8 (#58 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 38 (#66 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 44.25 (#29 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 8-5, 23-16 (59%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 15-21 (42%)
at Home ATS: 4-2, 8-9 (47%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 7-12 (37%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 10-14 (42%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-3, 2-10 (17%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-3, 13-11 (54%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 21.8 (92) - 22.5 (44)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 350.7 (67) - 364.9 (63)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.47 (55) - 5.19 (56)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 4.3 (54) - 3.92 (58)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.73 (71) - 6.64 (55)
Turnover Differential: -0.62 (100)
2009 OUTLOOK: The Terps will never be mistaken for an elite program, but head coach Ralph Friedgen"s team always finds a way to hang in there with more talented opponents. Last season, Maryland didn"t perform particularly well on either side of the ball—in fact, it gave up more points than it scored—but the Terps still finished 8-5, including a 42-35 victory over Nevada in the Humanitarian Bowl. The Terps beat four of five ranked opponents, but dropped a key conference matchup to Boston College that prevented them from advancing to the ACC title game.
OFFENSE: Although they finished ninth in the ACC in scoring (21.8 points per game), the Terps ranked third in total offense (350.7 yards per game), which suggests they had no problem moving the ball downfield, but struggled in punching the ball in the end zone. The passing game, which ranked second in the conference, is in good hands with senior quarterback Chris Turner returning after throwing for 2,516 yards and 13 touchdowns. Turner will have to deal with the departure of top wideout Darrius Heyward-Bey and tight end Dan Gronkowski, but there are several players waiting to fill the void and make an impact, including sophomores Torrey Smith (24 catches) and Ronnie Tyler (20) and juniors Adrian Cannon, LaQuan Williams and Emani Lee-Odai. The ground game is in fine shape with speedy tailback Da"Rel Scott returning for his junior season. Scott paced the Terps with 1,133 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 5.4 yards per rush. Sophomore Davin Meggett and junior Morgan Green added seven touchdowns. The only area where wholesale changes will take place will be the offensive line, as three starters graduated. Friedgen will look to build around junior left tackle Bruce Campbell and senior right guard Phil Costa, who will move to center. Sophomore Lamar Young and redshirt freshman Justin Lewis will be thrust right into the fire at the guard position.
DEFENSE: The Terps struggled on this side of the ball, finishing ninth in the ACC in scoring defense (22.5 points per game) and 10th in total defense (364.9 yards per game) and now face the major task of replacing seven starters. Maryland"s main concern will be to find a consistent pass rush. The Terps already had problems getting to the opposing quarterback, but now they"ll have three new starters up front, with senior tackle Travis Ivey the lone returnee. Sophomore Dion Armstrong started three games last year and now takes over full time at nose tackle. Sophomore Derek Drummond and senior Jared Harrell will be asked to produce right away at the end positions. It"s a mixed bag at linebacker, as Maryland"s leading tackler, junior Alex Wujciak (133 stops) is back, but Dave Philistin (94 tackles) and Moise Fokou (five sacks) are gone. Key reserves Chase Bullock and Rick Costa graduated as well. Junior Adrian Moten and redshirt freshman Demetrius Hartsfield will earn the first shot at replacing Philistin and Fokou. The secondary lost two starters, but will be in great shape behind four seniors. Anthony Wiseman and Terrell Skinner return at cornerback and free safety, respectively, while Jamari McCollough, who led the team with four interceptions, will get the strong safety gig after starting two times in 2008. Cornerback Nolan Carroll will also join the starting lineup full time. Junior Antwine Perez will be in the mix.
PREDICTION: Behind Turner, Scott and a deep wideout corps, Maryland will rack up the points on offense. However, with the defensive front seven likely to struggle against tough ACC competition, it may be a long season in College Park. Expect six wins.
N.C. STATE WOLFPACK
Where: Raleigh, NC
Head Coach: Tom O"Brien, 3rd year
2008 Record: 6-7 SU, 9-2 ATS
Facility: Carter-Finley Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 7
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 7
Lettermen Returning: 32
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -2.8 (#80 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +0.6 (#63 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 42 (#51 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 41.33 (#53 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 6-7, 14-23 (38%)
Overall ATS: 9-2, 17-16 (52%)
at Home ATS: 5-1, 9-9 (50%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-1, 8-7 (53%)
vs Conference ATS: 8-0, 15-9 (63%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-0, 1-6 (14%)
as Underdog ATS: 9-2, 16-10 (62%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 23.5 (80) - 26.3 (65)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 329.2 (88) - 390.9 (84)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.13 (79) - 5.72 (90)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.62 (86) - 4.18 (80)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.83 (68) - 7.23 (84)
Turnover Differential: +0.62 (25)
2009 OUTLOOK: There"s a lot of excitement in Raleigh these days, and it"s not just because the Wolfpack won their last four regular-season games to earn a bowl berth (29-23 loss to Rutgers in the Papajohns.com Bowl). The emergence of sophomore quarterback Russell Wilson, who became the first freshman in the 57-year history of the conference to capture All-ACC first-team signal-caller honors, has head coach Tom O"Brien and the Wolfpack faithful dreaming of a New Year"s Day bowl game.
OFFENSE: How good was Wilson? How about 17 touchdowns against just one interception in 275 pass attempts. How about leading the ACC in total offense and passing efficiency. Consider the fact that the Wolfpack"s other two quarterbacks, Daniel Evans and Harrison Beck, combined for three touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Wilson, who should be fully recovered from a knee injury suffered in the bowl game, also added four scores on the ground. Highly touted freshman Mike Glennon will be waiting in the wings. The ground game is another story. Leading rusher Andre Brown (seven touchdowns) has moved on and there is no proven No. 1 back to fill the void. Senior Toney Baker is the logical first choice, as he has 1,272 career rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, but he"s missed most of the last two seasons due to injury. Junior Jamelle Eugene (442 yards) will be in the mix, but was held out of spring practice due to a shoulder injury. As a result, keep an eye on redshirt freshman Brandon Barnes and true freshman James Washington. The offensive line has been a sore spot in recent years, but showed signs of improvement and should come together nicely behind returning tackles Jake Vermiglio (junior) and Jeraill McCuller (senior) and senior center Ted Larsen. Graduate Julian Williams and senior Andy Barbee will man the guard spots. At wideout, juniors Jarvis Williams and Owen Spencer, who combined for 57 receptions, 1,132 yards and nine touchdowns, are both huge deep threats. Spencer led the ACC with 22.3 yards per catch. Redshirt sophomores Jay Smith and Steven Howard will have more responsibility and senior Donald Bowens (41 catches in 2007) could provide an added bonus if he recovers from a spinal injury that kept him out all last season. Redshirt sophomore tight end George Bryan opened eyes around the league with four touchdown receptions.
DEFENSE: As impressive as N.C. State"s attack was, its defense was equally porous. The Wolfpack gave up an ACC-worst 390.9 yards and 26.3 points per game. The all-senior defensive line needs to get more pressure on opposing signal-callers, plain and simple. Willie Young is the rare exception, as he led the Wolfpack with 6.5 sacks. Fellow end Shea McKeen will need to step it up a notch, as will tackles Alan- Michael Cash and Leroy Burgess. The linebacking corps has two solid returning playmakers in senior Ray Michel (102 stops) and junior Nate Irving (84 tackles, three interceptions), while improving sophomore Dwayne Maddox takes over on the strong side. The secondary was downright brutal, allowing 248.7 yards through the air. Things won"t get any easier with cornerback Jeremy Gray and safety J.C. Neal, who combined for 160 tackles, moving on. Junior cornerback De- Andre Morgan and sophomore safety Justin Byers will be joined by senior safety Clem Johnson and sophomore Dominique Ellis.
PREDICTION: The Wolfpack will rack up the points, especially with Wilson starting for the entire season. However, the defense continues to lag behind, which will cost N.C. State a few wins down the stretch. A eightwin season is likely.
WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS
Where: Winston-Salem, NC
Head Coach: Jim Grobe, 9th year
2008 Record: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS
Facility: BB&T Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 9
Defense: Multiple 4-3 - Starters Returning: 4
Lettermen Returning: 45
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +2.7 (#53 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +5.7 (#37 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 40 (#57 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 42.75 (#43 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 8-5, 28-12 (70%)
Overall ATS: 6-7, 23-16 (59%)
at Home ATS: 3-4, 10-8 (56%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 13-8 (62%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 14-11 (56%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-5, 10-10 (50%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-2, 13-6 (68%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 21 (95) - 18.3 (16)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 308.3 (101) - 296.7 (17)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.53 (108) - 4.59 (17)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.06 (107) - 3.52 (26)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.57 (77) - 5.87 (16)
Turnover Differential: +1.31 (5)
2009 OUTLOOK: A 29-19 win over Navy in the EagleBank Bowl gave Wake Forest its third straight season with eight or more wins, the first time in school history it accomplished that feat. However, to extend that streak to four, head coach Jim Grobe needs to rebuild a stop unit that lost seven starters, including Butkus Award-winning linebacker Aaron Curry and All-America cornerback Alphonso Smith. The good news is the offense, which struggled at times behind injuries to the line, returns nine starters, including senior quarterback Riley Skinner, the most accurate passer in ACC history.
OFFENSE: A year after ranking fourth in the ACC in scoring offense (28.2 points per game) and seventh in total offense (334.5 yards per game), the Demon Deacons slipped badly to 10th (21 points per game) and ninth (308.3 yards per game), respectively. Skinner clearly wasn"t to blame, as he completed 64 percent of his passes for 2,347 yards and 13 touchdowns, and cut his interceptions from 13 in 2007 to just seven. Skinner, who has six fourth-quarter comebacks in his career, completed all 11 of his passes against Navy, setting an NCAA record for completion percentage in a bowl game. Sophomore Skylar Jones and redshirt freshman Ted Stachitas will compete for the backup role. The wideout corps will need to find a new leader with D.J. Boldin, who topped the ACC in receptions with 81, graduating. Junior Marshall Williams (26 grabs, 15 yards per catch) is the most likely candidate to be the new top target. Junior Jordan Williams and redshirt sophomore Devon Brown will see increased playing time, while redshirt freshman Chris Givens had a great spring. Senior tight end Ben Wooster has solid hands and will be an important safety valve for Skinner. The ground game, which was a team strength two seasons ago, couldn"t find a rhythm, as Wake Forest ranked ninth in the ACC in rushing (121.4 yards per game), averaging a paltry 3.1 yards per carry. Look for the tandem of sophomore Brandon Pendergrass (528 yards, five scores) and junior Josh Adams (402, 4) to step it up a notch. Senior Kevin Harris (136 yards against Navy) will also be in the mix. Simply put, the line, which also allowed 30 sacks, will have to perform better. All five starters are back up front—senior tackles Joe Birdsong and Jeff Griffin, senior right guard Barrett McMillin, sophomore left guard Joe Looney and junior center Russell Nenon.
DEFENSE: The Demon Deacons excelled on this side of the ball, ranking third in the ACC in scoring defense (18.3 points per game) and fourth in total (296.7 yards per game), rush (124.2) and pass defense (172.5). The unit forced an ACC-best 37 turnovers. One area that should remain stable is the line. Although Matt Robinson (42 career starts) will be missed, fellow end Kyle Wilber (three sacks), a sophomore, and senior tackles John Russell and junior nose guard Boo Robinson (combined eight sacks) are all back. The linebackers are another story—all three starters, including the dominating Curry, are gone, leaving a major hole. There are no clearcut replacements, although redshirt freshman Joey Ehrmann, sophomores Tristan Dorty and Gelo Orange and junior Hunter Haynes all showed promise in the spring game. The secondary lost three of four starters, including both safeties, and will especially miss Smith, the ACC"s career interception leader (21). Senior Brandon Ghee is the lone returnee. Senior Geoff Wissing, redshirt junior Alex Frye and redshirt sophomores Michael Williams and Peter Grimm all caught Grobe"s attention in the spring game.
PREDICTION: Skinner and the offense must have a better performance, but rebuilding the defense will be a huge task, and there may not be enough experience on the roster to keep Wake Forest on the winning side of things in conference action. Expect seven or eight wins.
COASTAL DIVISION
DUKE BLUE DEVILS
Where: Durham, NC
Head Coach: David Cutcliffe, 2nd year
2008 Record: 4-8 SU, 6-5 ATS
Facility: Wallace Wade Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 5
Defense: Multiple 4-3 - Starters Returning: 5
Lettermen Returning: 33
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -3.3 (#83 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -2.8 (#75 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 34 (#77 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 39.33 (#65 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 4-8, 5-31 (14%)
Overall ATS: 6-5, 17-17 (50%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 6-11 (35%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-2, 11-6 (65%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 11-13 (46%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-1, 2-1 (67%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-4, 15-16 (48%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 20.1 (101) - 23.4 (50)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 303.8 (102) - 356.9 (60)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.4 (114) - 5.42 (69)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.04 (108) - 3.83 (51)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 5.79 (100) - 7.83 (105)
Turnover Differential: +0.42 (34)
2009 OUTLOOK: David Cutcliffe"s opening season as head coach was very much a success, considering the Blue Devils won as many games (four) as they had in the previous four years combined. Things could have been even better, as five of Duke"s losses were by 11 points or fewer.
OFFENSE: Even with all of the improvements, the offense was still among the worst in the ACC, ranking 11th in scoring (20.1 points per game) and 10th in total offense (303.8 yards per game). One area that the Blue Devils suffered bigtime struggles was in the running game, which averaged 106.2 yards per game (11th in the ACC) and a conference-low nine touchdowns. However, help is on the way with the return of redshirt senior Re"quan Boyette, who was forced to sit out last season after undergoing knee surgery. He was Duke"s leading rusher in both 2006 and "07 and ranks 11th among active players in the ACC with 1,072 career rushing yards. Sophomore Jay Hollingsworth (399 yards, one touchdown) and junior Tony Jackson (259 yards) will also get carries. Entering his senior season, quarterback Thaddeus Lewis ranks 20th on the ACC"s career passing yardage list, having thrown for 6,735 yards, and is also the ACC"s active career leader in touchdown passes with 47. Last season Lewis earned second-team All-ACC honors and completed 224 of 361 pass attempts (62 percent) for 2,171 yards, 15 touchdowns and six interceptions. With the graduation of Eron Riley (144 career receptions), who is going to be Duke"s go-to receiver? Sophomores Johnny Williams (30 catches, 327 yards) and Donovan Varner (21, 164) headline the returnees, while juniors Sheldon Bell and Austin Kelly provide stability. Junior Brett Huffman (14, 171) will also see an increase in production. The offensive line returns only two starters—sophomore guard Kyle Hill and junior center Bryan Morgan—from a unit that allowed 22 sacks as compared to 45 in 2007.
DEFENSE: The Blue Devils will need to step it up a notch, as they finished ninth in the ACC in total defense (356.9 yards per game) and 11th in rushing defense (151.5), and must replace six starters. Up front, senior tackle Vince Oghobaase leads the way after starting all 36 games in his career, to go along with 11.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss. He"ll team with fellow senior Ayanga Okpokowuruk, who returns at left end after totaling 29 tackles (6.5 for loss) and 3.5 sacks. Senior Kinney Rucker, who has played mostly a reserve role, looks to be the starter at nose tackle, while juniors Westley Oglesby and Jeremy Ringfield will share time at right end. Senior Vincent Rey enters his final season with the Blue Devils and is the only active player in the conference with multiple 100- tackle campaigns. He amassed 109 stops (10.5 for loss) in 2008 after totaling 111 in "07. Sophomore Abraham Kromah is expected to get the nod at strongside linebacker, while juniors Damian Thornton and Michael Tooley are the frontrunners in the middle. Two familiar senior faces return to the secondary in right cornerback Leon Wright and safety Catron Gainey. Wright was lost for the season after the sixth game, but had four pass breakups in limited action. Gainey ranked third on the team with 66 tackles and tied for the team lead with two fumble recoveries.
PREDICTION: The Blue Devils took positive steps in just about every area in 2008, but now they"ve got to add another layer of success. The program recruited well and with Lewis back behind center and Oghobaase and Rey returning, Duke could get closer to that coveted bowl spot. Opening against I-AA Richmond (13-3) won"t be easy, but back-toback road affairs against Army and Kansas will serve as a good measuring stick.
GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS
Where: Atlanta, GA
Head Coach: Paul Johnson, 2nd year
2008 Record: 9-4 SU, 8-3 ATS
Facility: Bobby Dodd Stadium
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 9
Defense: 4-3 Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 62
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +4.6 (#44 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +4.7 (#44 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 45 (#40 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 44.50 (#26 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 9-4, 25-15 (63%)
Overall ATS: 8-3, 18-15 (55%)
at Home ATS: 4-1, 8-7 (53%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-2, 10-8 (56%)
vs Conference ATS: 6-2, 13-11 (54%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-1, 10-11 (48%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-2, 8-4 (67%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 24.4 (74) - 19.8 (23)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 372.5 (50) - 313.5 (25)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 6.01 (23) - 4.81 (25)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 5.55 (7) - 3.62 (35)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 7.82 (24) - 6.05 (23)
Turnover Differential: +0.15 (53)
2009 OUTLOOK: In only one season, Paul Johnson has turned the Ramblin" Wreck into a force to be reckoned with. Georgia Tech, behind one of the nation"s top rushing attacks, won nine games, tied for first place in the ACC Coastal Division, beat Georgia for the first time in eight years, and made an appearance (38-3 loss to LSU) in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. Johnson, named the ACC Coach of the Year, will welcome back 17 starters (nine on offense) to a team which is among the youngest in the nation.
OFFENSE: The Yellow Jackets" spread offense ranked first in the ACC and fourth nationally in rushing (273.2 yards per game), and proved almost impossible to stop—although they were held to 164 yards in the bowl defeat to LSU. Georgia Tech punched the ball in the end zone 32 times on the ground, led by junior running back Jonathan Dwyer"s 12 scores. Dwyer, named ACC Player of the Year and a first-team All-American, racked up 1,395 yards on 200 carries, averaging an amazing seven yards per carry. Just as dangerous is sophomore Roddy Jones, who gained 690 yards and four touchdowns on only 81 carries. Add in junior Lucas Cox (three touchdowns) and sophomore Anthony Allen, a Louisville transfer, to one of the deepest running back units in the country. A first look at junior quarterback Josh Nesbit"s horrific passing numbers (44 percent completion percentage, 808 yards, two touchdowns, five interceptions) may cause some to wonder why he"s still starting, but realize Georgia Tech rarely passes the ball—it threw the ball 165 times as opposed to 640 rush attempts. Nesbit carried the ball almost as much as Dwyer and gained 693 yards and seven touchdowns. Strange but true
DEFENSE: The Yellow Jackets struggled down the stretch, allowing 80 points to Georgia and LSU, but overall were solid, especially against the rush. The Jackets ranked sixth in the ACC in both total (313.5 yards per game) and scoring defense (20.3 points per game), but ranked third in the conference against the run (120.3 yards per game). A main area of concern will be the front four, as tackles Vance Walker and Darryl Richard and end Michael Johnson all graduated. Johnson led the team with nine sacks and 17.5 tackles for loss, while Walker and Richard were solid run-stuffers. Look for the team to rebuild around junior end Derrick Morgan (seven sacks), with hopes that redshirt freshman T.J. Barnes and junior Robert Hall can step into starting roles. While the line will be a question mark, the linebacking unit will prove to be exceptional. All three starters—senior Sedric Griffin, sophomore Kyle Jackson and junior Anthony Barnes—are back in the fold. The secondary is also in great shape, with junior rover Morgan Burnett (seven interceptions) leading a talented unit that includes corners Mario Butler and Rashaad Reid (three picks), junior safety Dominique Reese (three interceptions) and sophomore Cooper Taylor.
PREDICTION: Georgia Tech will run all over its opponents, allowing it to control the clock and keep its defense off the field. However, it has a few weak spots, including getting pressure on the quarterback and subpar special teams play. Even so, this team is ready to win 10 games and contend for an ACC title.
MIAMI (FLA.) HURRICANES
Where: Coral Gables, FL
Head Coach: Randy Shannon, 3rd year
2008 Record: 7-6 SU, 6-6 ATS
Facility: Dolphin Stadium
Offense: Pro Set - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 58
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +2.9 (#52 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +4.2 (#46 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 46 (#38 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 46.50 (#9 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 7-6, 19-19 (50%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 13-22 (37%)
at Home ATS: 1-4, 6-12 (33%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-2, 7-10 (41%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 7-16 (30%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-5, 8-16 (33%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-1, 5-6 (45%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 27.1 (49) - 24.2 (56)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 326 (89) - 315.2 (26)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.06 (84) - 4.94 (35)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.94 (70) - 3.94 (61)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.22 (86) - 6.41 (42)
Turnover Differential: -0.77 (104)
2009 OUTLOOK: While a 7-6 record isn"t that impressive on paper, the Hurricanes rebounded from a 2007 campaign which saw them finish 5-7 and fail to qualify for a bowl game. Four of Miami"s six losses in ‘08 came by a combined total of just 18 points, including a spirited 24- 17 defeat to California in the Emerald Bowl. Another positive sign was the Hurricanes splitting their eight ACC affairs after going 2- 6 within the conference the year prior. Randy Shannon, a Miami alumnus, heads into his third season as head coach with a conference title as his goal. Completing that mission will be challenging, especially with new coordinators on both sides of the ball, but 16 returning starters will give the Hurricanes plenty of depth and experience with which to work.
OFFENSE: Mark Whipple, who takes over as offensive coordinator after a stint as an assistant coach with the Philadelphia Eagles, will try to keep the ‘Canes firing on all cylinders. Miami ranked third in the ACC in scoring (27.1 points per game) and sixth in total offense (326.0 yards per game). The passing attack was split down the middle between then-freshmen Robert Marve and Jacory Harris, but with Marve deciding to transfer, Harris (118 of 194 attempts, 1,195 yards, 12 touchdowns, seven interceptions) could lead the ACC in touchdown strikes. Don"t expect a sophomore slump from Harris, who completed over 60 percent of his passes. Sophomores Cannon Smith and Taylor Cook will be in the backup mix. Harris will have the benefit of a deep receiving corps, led by sophomores Aldarius Johnson (31 catches, 332 yards, three touchdowns) and Travis Benjamin (18, 293, 3). Also looking to make an impact will be junior Leonard Hankerson and sophomores Thearon Collier (26 receptions) and LaRon Byrd (team-leading four touchdowns). The return to full strength of senior Javarris James from a high ankle sprain (68 carries, 286 yards, four touchdowns) gives Shannon two top options in the backfield, as junior Graig Cooper (841 yards, four touchdowns) averaged nearly five yards per carry. Also, junior Damien Berry rushed for 114 yards in the spring game. The offensive line held its own, but still has room for improvement, as it yielded 27 sacks. Leading the charge will be three returning starters—senior tackle Jason Fox (37 career starts) and guards A.J. Trump and Orlando Franklin, a senior and junior, respectively.
DEFENSE: John Lovett takes over as defensive coordinator, a role he previously held at both Auburn and Clemson. He"ll have his work cut out for him, as the ‘Canes ranked ahead of only N.C. State in scoring defense (24.2 points per game). They especially struggled against the rush, finishing last in the ACC (151.8 yards per game). Up front, the Hurricanes will be in great shape, with ends Steven Wesley and Marcus Robinson (four sacks) and senior tackle Joe Joseph all returning to their incumbent slots. Sophomore tackle Marcus Forston is in line for a starting job, while juniors Allen Bailey and Adewale Ojomo are coming into their own as pass rushers. Glenn Cook will be missed at linebacker (76 stops), but sophomore Sean Spence (65) and senior Darryl Sharpton (58) are excellent playmakers. The unit will get a boost from the return of Colin McCarthy, who missed most of last season with a shoulder injury. The ‘Canes ranked second in the ACC in pass defense (165.6 yards per game). Returning to the fold will be corners Brandon Harris and Chavez Grant, a sophomore and senior, respectively, and junior safety JoJo Nicholas.
PREDICTION: This could be the best Miami team in years. The offense will be able to light it up both on the ground and through the air. If the defense can learn to stop the run, look for the ‘Canes to win 10 games.
NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS
Where: Chapel Hill, NC
Head Coach: Butch Davis, 3rd year
2008 Record: 8-5 SU, 7-5 ATS
Facility: Kenan Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 8
Lettermen Returning: 44
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +6.5 (#34 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +8.4 (#25 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 47 (#36 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 40.33 (#59 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 8-5, 15-22 (41%)
Overall ATS: 7-5, 17-17 (50%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 9-8 (53%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-2, 8-9 (47%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 11-13 (46%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-5, 5-9 (36%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-0, 12-8 (60%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 27.7 (43) - 21.2 (32)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 321.4 (92) - 365.4 (64)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 5.42 (60) - 5 (39)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.53 (93) - 3.74 (43)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 8.08 (21) - 6.3 (35)
Turnover Differential: +0.46 (31)
2009 OUTLOOK: North Carolina head coach Butch Davis guided the Tar Heels to a four-win improvement in 2008, finishing with an 8-5 mark. And as good as the season was, it could have been even better if not for the Heels dropping late contests to Maryland and N.C. State. Now Davis" crew heads into the new campaign with renewed optimism following its first bowl berth since 2004. And when you consider that the Tar Heels have assembled a killer recruiting class, and are beginning to gain national attention, there"s no telling how high this program might soar.
OFFENSE: The offense will be without five starters, including the team"s top receivers in Hakeem Nicks, Brooks Foster, Brandon Tate and Richard Quinn, as they combined for 17 of the team"s 21 receiving touchdowns. Needless to say, scoring points is something that needs to be addressed. The top returning pass catcher, Greg Little, began as a running back and totaled just 11 receptions. Some of the top recruits—Todd Harrelson, Dwight Jones, Rashad Mason, and Jheranie Boyd—will be asked to grow up quickly. After averaging 122.6 rushing yards per game, which ranked 89th nationally, the Tar Heels must develop a consistent running attack. Converted cornerback Shaun Draughn, who became the starting tailback at the midway point of the year, provided a spark and begins the season as the feature back after rushing for 866 yards and three touchdowns on 198 carries. In short yardage, he"ll get an assist from junior Ryan Houston, who scored eight times. There is plenty of experience returning on the offensive line—senior tackle Kyle Jolly, junior guard Alan Pelc and senior center Lowell Dyer. Quarterback T.J. Yates played in only seven games and was very effective—when he wasn"t on the shelf. The junior signal-caller suffered a non-displaced fracture to his left ankle. In 19 career games, he has thrown for 3,823 yards and 25 touchdowns.
DEFENSE: Eight starters are back from last year"s defense, which allowed 365.4 yards and 21.2 points per game. The line returns completely intact, led by sophomore end Robert Quinn, who finished third in the voting for the ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year honors. Senior Cam Thomas returns at tackle after registering 34 stops. He"ll be joined up front by junior tackle Marvin Austin (38 tackles) and junior end E.J. Wilson (38 tackles, 4.5 for loss). The Tar Heels have the luxury of two allstar candidates at linebacker in juniors Quan Sturdivant and Bruce Carter. Sturdivant ranks second among all returning tacklers in the ACC with 122 stops and averaged 9.4 tackles per game. He also added two interceptions, one of which he returned 32 yards for a touchdown against Notre Dame. Carter ranked fourth on the team with 68 tackles (11 for loss), five sacks and one interception. He was also a force on special teams with a nation- leading five blocked punts. North Carolina returns three players to the secondary, including second-team All-ACC pick Kendric Burney, a junior cornerback. Burney ranked third on the team with 78 tackles, 7.5 for loss, three interceptions and five pass breakups. He"s joined by senior cornerback Jordan Hemby. Junior safety Deunta Williams should be ready following wrist surgery and he"s coming off a 65-tackle campaign. Juniors Matt Merletti, Da"Norris Searcy and Jonathan Smith will all see time at safety.
PREDICTION: Anything less than a bowl berth will be a disappointment. The Tar Heels possess a defensive unit that should be able to keep them in every game. It will be up to the offense, especially Yates, to step up. If that happens, North Carolina could find itself challenging for an ACC title.
VIRGINIA CAVALIERS
Where: Charlottesville, VA
Head Coach: Al Groh, 9th year
2008 Record: 5-7 SU, 5-6 ATS
Facility: Scott Stadium
Offense: Spread - Starters Returning: 6
Defense: 3-4 - Starters Returning: 6
Lettermen Returning: 35
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: -5.6 (#90 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -1.8 (#71 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 43 (#47 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 44.55 (#25 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 5-7, 19-18 (51%)
Overall ATS: 5-6, 16-19 (46%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 9-9 (50%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-3, 7-10 (41%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 13-10 (57%)
as Favorite ATS: 0-1, 4-9 (31%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-5, 12-10 (55%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 16.1 (115) - 21.7 (38)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 299.4 (105) - 329.6 (38)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.62 (103) - 4.82 (26)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.42 (96) - 3.69 (40)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 5.54 (106) - 6.48 (44)
Turnover Differential: -0.58 (95)
2009 OUTLOOK: Following a disappointing 5-7 season, head coach Al Groh turned his attention toward improving the Cavaliers in a variety of ways. There were several changes to the coaching staff, including bringing in former Bowling Green head coach Gregg Brandon to spark an offense that"s finished 101st or lower in each of the last three years, and former Kansas State head coach Ron Prince, who"ll be the associate head coach and special teams coordinator. Only time will tell if these changes will have an immediate impact.
OFFENSE: Brandon is known as an innovator of the spread offense from his days with the Falcons, as they featured one of the nation"s top all-around offenses, averaging over 400 yards per game in four of his six seasons as coach. Returning four starters along the offensive line is a solid starting point, and it"s led by senior right tackle Will Barker. Next to him is junior right guard B.J. Cabbell and junior center Jack Shields. Sophomore Austin Pasztor gained valuable experience and returns at left guard. Sophomore Landon Bradley is the heir apparent at left tackle for All-American Eugene Monroe and he has huge shoes to fill. A big question exists at quarterback. Will Jameel Sewell be handed the job now that he"s back from academic suspension? He played well as the starter in 2007 (2,176 yards passing, 279 yards rushing), but will have to earn his way back up the depth chart. Standing in his way will be Marc Verica, who threw for 2,037 yards and eight touchdowns, but tossed 16 interceptions. Senior Mikell Simpson, who is coming off an injury-plagued season, is the most experienced tailback on the roster and the likely starter. He ran for only 262 yards and missed the last three games. Juniors Raynard Horne and Keith Payne will provide depth. Senior Rashawn Jackson returns at fullback. The Cavaliers are depleted at wide receiver after losing their top four producers. Sophomore Jared Green is the top returnee and he only caught 12 passes. Fellow classmate Kris Burd will see an increase in production.
DEFENSE: Virginia, which ranked 26th nationally in pass defense, returns three starters to the secondary. Senior Vic Hall, who also could see time at quarterback, returns for his third season at cornerback, while junior Ras-I Dowling will be in his second. Hall made 59 tackles and also picked off two passes, one of which he returned for a touchdown. Dowling led the Cavaliers with three interceptions and broke up 11 passes. Sophomore Chase Minnifield made an impact with two interceptions and four pass breakups. Sophomore Corey Mosley (46 tackles) returns at safety and senior safety Brandon Woods, who has appeared in 37 career games, knows the system well. In Groh"s 3-4 defense, playmaking linebackers are an absolute must. Unfortunately, last year"s three best players at the position— Clint Sintim, Jon Copper and Antonio Appleby— have run out of eligibility. Senior Denzell Burrell (48 tackles) is the new veteran of the group. Senior Darren Childs and sophomore Aaron Taliaferro will also see an increase in playing time. Sophomore end Matt Conrath headlines the returnees on the line after earning second- team Freshman All-America honors with 35 tackles and four sacks. Senior Nate Collins (35 tackles) and sophomore Nick Jenkins (25) will split time at nose tackle, while junior John-Kevin Dolce proved himself as a speed rusher on the edge with five sacks.
PREDICTION: After losing his final four games, and finishing below the .500 mark, Groh will be coaching with a sense of desperation, as he"s already been placed on the hot seat. Having to face nine teams that advanced to postseason play in 2008 won"t make things any easier for the Cavaliers, especially in the always-tough ACC.
VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES
Where: Blacksburg, VA
Head Coach: Frank Beamer, 23rd year
2008 Record: 10-4 SU, 6-7 ATS
Facility: Lane Stadium
Offense: Multiple - Starters Returning: 8
Defense: 4-3 - Starters Returning: 7
Lettermen Returning: 40
Key Strength Ratings
2008 Scoring Differential: +5.4 (#40 of 120)
2008 StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +6.7 (#32 of 120)
2009 StatFox Power Rating: 52 (#22 of 120)
2009 Schedule Strength: 46.23 (#12 of 120)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS - 2008 - 3 Year Total
Straight Up: 10-4, 31-10 (76%)
Overall ATS: 6-7, 20-18 (53%)
at Home ATS: 1-4, 7-11 (39%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-3, 13-7 (65%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-5, 17-9 (65%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-5, 12-15 (44%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-2, 8-3 (73%)
2008 TEAM STATS & NCAA RANKS (of 120)
Points Scored - Allowed: 22.1 (90) - 16.7 (9)
Total YPG Gained - Allowed: 303.4 (103) - 279.4 (7)
Yards Per Play Gained - Allowed: 4.54 (105) - 4.93 (34)
Yards Per Rush Gained - Allowed: 3.78 (78) - 3.24 (17)
Yards Per Pass Gained - Allowed: 6.21 (87) - 7.14 (77)
Turnover Differential: +1 (15)
2009 OUTLOOK: Many pundits thought that it was going to be a lost campaign for the Hokies when they opened the season with a shocking 27-22 defeat to East Carolina, but Virginia Tech rebounded to not only win the ACC Championship, but it also dominated Big East champion Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl. It was the Hokies" fifth straight 10-win season and their third ACC Championship in five years, and they did it by utilizing one of the nation"s best defenses and a breakout redshirt freshman campaign from tailback Darren Evans.
OFFENSE: One area in which the Hokies, who scored 22.1 points per game, could use some improvement is definitely in the passing attack, as the dual-headed monster of Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor combined to throw for just six touchdowns. With Glennon having graduated, head coach Frank Beamer is counting on Taylor, who is entering his junior campaign, to improve his decision-making skills. Taylor completed 57 percent of his passes (99 of 173) for 1,036 yards, but was intercepted seven times and tossed just two touchdowns. One area where Taylor excels is rushing the ball out of the option, as he gained 738 yards and scored seven times on the ground, both second-best on the Hokies. Redshirt Ju-Ju Clayton will backup Taylor. Unlike last year, when the wideout corps was a complete question mark entering the season, Taylor will have plenty of talented targets, including sophomore starters Danny Coale (36 grabs, 408 yards) and Jarrett Boykin (30, 441). Sophomore Dyrell Roberts (17, 227) and redshirt freshman Austin Fuller will play a larger role, as will senior tight end Greg Boone (22, 278). Of course, the main focus of the offense will be the potent running attack, led by the dangerous Evans, who set an ACC freshman record with 1,265 rushing yards and added 11 touchdowns. The line improved slightly, allowing 42 sacks, down from a conference-worst 54 in 2007. Three starters are back—senior left tackle Ed Wang, senior left guard Sergio Render and sophomore right tackle Blake DeChristopher. Junior Beau Warren will have to fill big shoes at center, as the departed Ryan Shuman started 34 career games.
DEFENSE: The Hokies were dominant on this side of the ball, ranking ninth in the country in scoring defense (16.7 points per game) and seventh in total defense (279.4 yards per game), while ranking second in the ACC in rushing defense (104.4) and tied for third in sacks (34). Expect the Hokies to pressure opposing quarterbacks early and often, despite the loss of Orion Martin (7.5 sacks). That"s because junior Jason Worilds (eight sacks, 18.5 tackles for loss) is an absolute force and junior John Graves has been moved over to end. Senior Cordarrow Thompson returns at one tackle slot, while senior Demetrius Taylor will start opposite him. Senior end Nekos Brown also is in the mix. At linebacker, the Hokies have a similar situation to last season, when they lost their top two on the depth chart. Brett Warren and Purnell Sturdivant combined for 185 tackles, so it"ll be up to senior Cam Martin (51 stops) to anchor the unit until sophomores Barquell Rivers and Jake Johnson get the hang of things. The secondary will sorely miss Victor Harris, but has a great playmaker in fellow corner back, senior Stephan Virgil (six interceptions), and solid safeties in seniors Kam Chancellor and Dorian Porch. Junior Rashad Carmichael and sophomore Cris Hill will compete for Harris" vacated corner slot.
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