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Week 9 Football Picks

Saturday Nights Recap
Pick Spurs over Blazers
Result Loss
Amount - 50 units
Season Bankroll - +$450

My 3 best bets are:
Browns 1.5 over Seahawks
Redskins 3.5 over Jets
Lions 3 over Broncos

Featured game:
Colts vs. Patriots

If you e spent the past week on Mars, what Im about to tell you will surprise you. There is a very big game this weekend in the NFL. The Patriots and Colts, both undefeated, will meet in the marquee matchup of the season this Sunday. If I didn preview this game for you, I would be doing you a disservice, though Im sure youve already heard a lot about it already. This game will determine which is the best team in the NFL. This is one of the most highly anticipated non-playoff games in recent memory. This showdown involves the only teams left which have yet to lose, adding an intriguing chapter to what has become the NFLs best rivalry of the decade.

New England (8-0) has had the upper hand since Tom Brady became the starter, with six straight wins that included a 2004 victory in the AFC championship game en route to its most recent Super Bowl win. Manning, though, has led Indianapolis (7-0) to wins in the last three meetings, the latest being a come-from-behind 38-34 victory in last seasons AFC title game before winning his first championship.

While that defeat is the only one the Patriots have suffered in their last 14 games, the Colts go into this contest having won 12 straight after joining the 1929-31 Green Bay Packers as the only teams to open three consecutive seasons 7-0. Many are saying the Patriots are the best, with their astounding domination of all opponents this season making them the favorites despite playing at the RCA Dome. Indianapolis has won 13 straight home games since a Jan. 15, 2006 playoff loss to Pittsburgh. This is a really historical matchup as its the first time in NFL history two teams are playing each other with undefeated records through at least seven games.

Even though they have routed two solid teams on the road over the past two weeks, beating Jacksonville and Carolina by a combined 60-14, the Colts had some close calls earlier in the season. The Patriots meanwhile have been destroying every team in their path. All eight of their wins have been by at least 17 points, and they posted the most lopsided victory of any team this season last Sunday with a 52-7 rout of Washington.

It was the eighth straight game Brady has thrown for at least three touchdowns - an NFL record to start a season. Hes already set a career high with 30 TD passes, on pace to shatter Mannings league record of 49. Brady has thrown only two interceptions and completed 74.2 percent of his passes while making the most of a revamped receiving corps. He is having one of the best seasons in the history of the NFL if not professional sports.The offseason acquisitions of Randy Moss, the league receiving leader in yards (779) and touchdowns (11), as well Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth have turned the New England offense into what the Colts unit used to be. Patriots coach Bill Belichick has gone to a spread offense and looks to pass more often than run, whereas Indianapolis has switched to a more balanced attack after relying so heavily on Mannings arm for so many years. While Brady has a mind-boggling 136.2 passer rating, Manning is tied for second in the league at 102.9. Not too shabby at all as he has 13 touchdown passes, compared to three interceptions, while the Colts have thrown the ball just 12 more times than theyve run it. In Mannings previous nine seasons as the starter, Indianapolis has averaged nearly 124 more pass attempts than rushes. They have a strong running game as well as Joseph Addai and Kenton Keith, who have combined for 936 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, the Colts have the leagues fifth-ranked run offense with 140.3 yards per game and lead the NFL with 12 rushing touchdowns. This is a contrast to the Pats who are an aerial machine this year to go along with a stingy defense. New England has given up just 87.0 rushing yards per game, but thats partly because opponents have been forced to abandon the run after falling well behind. Though its hard to find a weakness on the Patriots, their run defense has shown some holes, giving up 4.2 yards per carry this season and allowing 179 rushing yards and three TDs to winless Miami two weeks ago.

While the Patriots were generally considered to have the better defense as this rivalry developed, and they
e still among the best, the Colts have caught up. Indianapolis is giving up 14.6 points per game, compared to 15.9 by New England, and both teams have a plus-11 turnover margin to lead the league. The Colts have the NFLs best pass defense, allowing 165.4 yards per game, and New England boasts by far the top passing offense with 303.8 yards per game.

Neither quarterback has faced much pressure, with Manning getting sacked only five times and Brady eight. Manning, though, has been sacked 21 times in the last nine meetings with New England, which tops the AFC this year with 22 sacks. Pats linebacker Mike Vrabel has a team-high 7 1/2 after collecting three last week and forcing fumbles on all of them.

The Colts were the last team to make the New England defense look truly vulnerable. They scored 32 second-half points and finished with 455 total yards in last seasons AFC title game.

To be honest with you, I think the Pats will win this game easily. But even though both teams have strong defenses, there is just too much firepower. Thats why I recommend betting on the over, no matter how high it is.

Here are the rest of the picks.

Favorite Spread Underdog My Picks

TAMPA BAY 3.5 Arizona TAMPA BAY
DETROIT 3.0 Denver DETROIT
TENNESSEE 4.0 Carolina TENNESSEE
KANSAS CITY 2.5 Green Bay Green Bay
San Diego 7.0 MINNESOTA San Diego
NEW ORLEANS 3.0 Jacksonville NEW ORLEANS
ATLANTA 3.5 San Francisco ATLANTA
Washington 3.5 NEW YORK (NYJ) Washington
Cincinnati 1.0 BUFFALO Cincinnati
CLEVELAND 1.5 Seattle CLEVELAND
New England 5.0 INDIANAPOLIS New England
OAKLAND 3.0 Houston OAKLAND
Dallas 3.0 PHILADELPHIA Dallas
PITTSBURGH 9.0 Baltimore PITTSBURGH


Good luck with your action tonight!


by Johnson