Sports Articles Johnson

The Jaguars will Upset the Colts

Monday’s Recap
Pick – Jaguars +3 over Colts
Result – Loss
Amount - 50 units
Season Bankroll - +$500

An eight-day layoff may have killed the Colorado Rockies momentum while another tremendous comeback in the AL championship series may have given it to the Boston Red Sox. This is part of the reason why I’m picking the Red Sox to win Game 1 of the World Series tonight. I do this even though the Rockies have won 21 of their last 22 games. Colorado’s layoff is two days longer than what Detroit had last year going into the World Series. The Tigers also had won seven straight playoff games, but lost in five to St. Louis as they scored only 11 runs in the series.

Boston has a big edge in experience. Colorado has only one player that has appeared in the World Series - leadoff hitter Willy Taveras with Houston in 2005. Rockies manager Clint Hurdle hasn been there since 1980 while with Kansas City. Seven current Red Sox players were on the 2004 team that won it all, along with manager Terry Francona, and another four have appeared in the World Series with other teams.

Boston also has the home-field advantage, and has won nine of its last 11 playoff games at Fenway Park. The Rockies, however, came to Boston in mid-June and won two of three games, outscoring the Red Sox 20-5 in the series - and that was back when Colorado was a .500 team.

David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez combined to go 7-for-19 (.368) with five walks in that June series, but accounted for only one RBI. Its their clutch hitting, however, that remains one of the biggest reasons why Boston is picked to win. Ortiz has batted .387 with three doubles, three homers and six RBIs in this postseason, while Ramirez is hitting .400 with four homers and 14 RBIs. Theyve also combined for 26 walks in 10 games.
Ramirezs 24 postseason homers are the most all-time and Ortiz has a .413 playoff batting average with runners in scoring position.

It only seems Josh Beckett (3-0, 1.17 ERA) gets everyone out when it comes playoff time. Hell face Jeff Francis (2-0, 2.13) in Game 1 as both teams go with their aces. Boston’s ace is proven in these big games however. The matchup was the same in the final game of the series at Fenway in June, and Francis was far from intimidated in his first trip to one of baseballs most historical ballparks as he went five scoreless innings in a 7-1 victory. Beckett entered with a 9-0 record but was dealt his first loss, surrendering six runs and 10 hits in five innings. He had been 4-0 with a 2.81 ERA in five previous starts versus the Rockies. This time of year, though, is when Beckett is at his best. In eight postseason starts, he has given up more than two runs only once and has pitched at least six innings every time. Beckett was the World Series MVP with Florida in 2003 after throwing a five-hit shutout at Yankee Stadium in Game 6, and added an ALCS MVP this year by winning Games 1 and 5. He held the high-powered Indians lineup to three runs and nine hits in 14 innings, walking one and striking out 18.

Francis has been clutch himself in his first trip to the postseason, winning both of his starts while allowing three runs over 12 2-3 innings with three walks and 12 strikeouts.
Shutting down the Boston lineup could be more difficult than ever with players besides Ortiz and Ramirez stepping up. Kevin Youkilis has been the Red Soxs hottest hitter, going 10-for-17 with three homers and seven RBIs over the last four games. Pedroia keyed Bostons rally over the final three ALCS games as he went 7-for-13 with three doubles and a homer, and drove in five runs in Game 7.

The Rockies have a potent offense of their own with stars not nearly as well known. Holliday led the NL in batting (.340) and RBIs (137), Brad Hawpe and Garrett Atkins both drove in more than 110 runs, NL rookie of the year candidate Troy Tulowitzki had 24 homers and 99 RBIs, and 11-year veteran Todd Helton hit .320. Thats not to mention the speed at the top, with Taveras and Kaz Matsui having combined for 65 steals and a .303 batting average in just 213 games. Matsui leads Colorado with eight postseason RBIs and Taveras rejoined the lineup for the NLCS after missing a month with a thigh injury.

Every member of Colorados regular lineup except Taveras and Hawpe has at least a .333 career batting average against Beckett. Atkins is 6-for-10 and Holliday is 6-for-14. Even if the Rockies can knock out Beckett, they will be facing possibly the best late-inning relievers in baseball.

Closer Jonathan Papelbon and setup man Hideki Okajima have not allowed a run in 13 2-3 postseason innings, including the final four of Bostons 11-2 win in Game 7 of the ALCS.

Rockies relievers, led by closer Manny Corpas, also have been impressive in the playoffs with a 1.61 ERA and .178 opponents batting average. Theyve struck out 23 and walked five in 28 innings.

The Red Sox are facing a team which has lost only once in the past 5 1/2 weeks, and now they must beat the Rockies four times in a span of nine days or less. Game 2 is Thursday before the series heads to Colorado on Saturday, and if the World Series goes to a Game 7 for the first time since 2002, it would take place Nov. 1.

Josh Beckett will prove to be too much for the Rockies and will add to his world class postseason resume tonight.

Good luck with your action tonight!


by Johnson