Sports Articles Johnson

The Jaguars will Upset the Colts

Sunday’s Recap
Pick – Patriots -16.5 over Dolphins (Win)
Jaguars +3 over Colts (Pending)
Cowboys -9.5 over Vikings (Win)
Result – Net win
Amount - 100 units
Season Bankroll - +$550

My football picks have been heating up and tonight, I like the Jaguars to upset the Colts because you may or may not know this, but the Jaguars may be the NFLs best team that no one is talking about. They’ve already won 4 in a row, but are still being ignored. That will change with a win over the Colts at home tonight.

This matchup is far tougher than anything Jacksonville (4-1) has faced - none of its victories have been against teams with winning records - and the Colts (5-0) are considered to be battling New England for the title as the NFLs best team though I don’t know how much of a debate that is since New England is hands down the best. The Colts have the benefit of coming off a bye, a week during which many feel the Patriots moved ahead of them on the ladder of NFL supremacy with their 48-27 win over previously unbeaten Dallas.

Though the Jaguars have not exactly been dominant, their margin of victory has gone up each week since a season-opening loss to Tennessee. They are coming off their most lopsided win - 37-17 over Houston last Sunday. Meanwhile, the Colts rolled to home wins over Denver and Tampa Bay in their last two games by a combined 71-34 score, but their two road games this season were not nearly as one-sided. They held off Tennessee 22-20 in Week 2, and edged Houston 30-24 the following week.

One of Indianapolis worst losses during the Peyton Manning era came in the teams most recent trip to Jacksonville. While Manning failed to throw a TD pass and completed just 25 of 50 passes, the Jaguars ran for 375 yards in a 44-17 victory over the Colts on Dec. 10. The Jaguars rushing attack has been outstanding lately, averaging 195.3 yards over the last three games. Maurice Jones-Drew has fought off a slow start to run for 207 yards and three touchdowns on 21 carries over the last two weeks, and he had a career-high 166 rushing yards with two TDs in the Dec. 10 rout of the Colts.

Indianapolis did hold Tampa Bay to 17 rushing yards in its most recent game, but that was against a team missing its top two running backs. The previous week against Denver, the Colts allowed 223 rushing yards. Overall, though, the Indianapolis defense has been solid, giving up 278.2 yards and 17.6 points per game to rank among the leagues top seven in both categories.

The Jaguars have yet to allow an opponent to score more than 17 points. Theyve forced seven turnovers over the last three games, and have held teams below 100 rushing yards in each of their four wins. The Colts have run for 373 yards over the last two games, including 121 by rookie Kenton Keith against Tampa Bay as he started for the injured Joseph Addai.

The bye week has given Addai, who has two 100-yard games this year, enough recovery time to get him back in the lineup this week along with Marvin Harrison, who sat out most of the last two games with a knee injury. Also expected to return for Indianapolis after missing one game is Sanders (ribs), the Pro Bowler who may be the Colts best defensive player.

Sanders leads a unit looking to become the first to pick off Garrard this season.

The first five games have shown Jacksonville made a good decision by giving Garrard the starting job and releasing Byron Leftwich during the preseason. Garrard joins Tampa Bays Jeff Garcia as the only quarterbacks with at least 30 attempts to have not thrown an interception - even Manning has two - and he is fourth in the league with a 104.7 passer rating.

Thats one spot behind Manning (108.6), who just continues to pick apart opposing defenses. Hes completed nearly 70 percent of his passes and thrown for 10 touchdowns, and Manning will only be more dangerous with a healthy Harrison back in action.

So take the Jags tonight and win.

Good luck with your action tonight!


by Johnson