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NFL - Minnesota at Dallas (100 PM ET – FOX)

NFL - Minnesota at Dallas (1:00 PM ET – FOX)

After being humbled by Tom Brady & the Patriots on Sunday, the Cowboys face another dangerous offensive weapon in Minnesota’s RB Adrian Peterson on Sunday. Oddsmakers don’t give the Vikings much of a chance though, installing them as big underdogs in Big “D”.


Brady gashed the Cowboys for 388 yards and five TD’s in a 48-27 convincing win. Peterson ran wild on Chicago, gaining 224 rushing yards and 3 TD’s in the Vikings’ 34-31 victory. Dallas’ defense is yielding just 3.4 YPR, ironically 2nd in the NFC to Minnesota, and hasn’t allowed more than 81 rushing yards in any game since Week 1.

The Cowboys have dropped two-straight ATS and will play just shy of a double-digit favorite here. They are 19-8 ATS at home after losing back-to-back games ATS. Minnesota has been a huge over team against good offenses, going 16-4 OVER vs. teams gaining >350 YPG.

It appears the Vikings are starting to fall in the face of opportunity. The NFC North is becoming one of the more competitive divisions in the game, but Minnesota has fallen off the pace a bit with three losses in four games, going 1-1-2 ATS. Preseason concerns about a passing attack led by QB Tarvaris Jackson are coming to fruition, but the rushing offense has exceeded expectations as rookie Adrian Peterson looks every bit the stud college fans felt he could be. The inconsistent trends come to life on defense as well as the Vikes possess one of the league’s best rushing defenses but have stopped no one from passing all over the field.

Ruling the NFC served Dallas well through the first four weeks of the season, but consecutive struggles against AFC East opponents may signify underlying problems that need to be addressed. The offense is as stout as you’ll find and the ability to overcome an atrocious performance by QB Tony Romo against Buffalo shows resolve.

The defense has been a bit sporadic but should perform well against a one-trick pony like this Minnesota offense. If the early trends hold true, the Cowboys should dominate their fellow NFC combatant (average point margin versus the NFC = 21 points going 3-0 SU & ATS; versus the AFC = 9, or -1 counting the New England loss, going 2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS).

Keys to the Game

The Vikings’ coach, Brad Childress’ best plan would be an aggressive attack early at Dallas. The Cowboys emptied their emotional bank against New England and will presumably not be ready to start against a significantly weaker foe. Minnesota has the players to stop Dallas running game and should make Romo look for receivers other than TE Jason Witten.

When watching Dallas, Romo is left uncomfortable throwing to wide receivers on continual basis. If the Vikes can find success in limiting Witten, Romo might throw a few up for grabs like he did against Buffalo, especially if he has a letdown after a huge Patriots encounter.

Trends
- The Vikings are 1-8 ATS in October as underdogs with a record under .500.
- The Vikings are 6-3-1 ATS on the road after playing NFC North club.
- The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS hosting Minnesota.
- The Cowboys are 2-10 ATS as home favorite when the total is 44 or higher.

NFL - New England at Miami (1:00 PM ET – CBS)

New England boasts a perfect record in the standings and against the Vegas number, and now travels to take on a team on the opposite side of the spectrum, Miami. The Dolphins have yet to win in ‘07 and have rightfully been installed as 15-1/2 point home dogs. This is just the second time since ‘01 that a team has been more than two-touchdown road favorite.

Could this be an oddsmakers trap? Well, there is some chance, since Miami is 7-2 ATS when hosting the Pats and 9-1 ATS when playing as an underdog of six-points or more. The Dolphins have actually been a capable offense too, ranking 13th in the NFL at 5.7 YPP. Still, with a 2-10 ATS record in division play, and New England thriving on the road in October, and in division games, bet the Fish at your own peril.

Each week has been a seminar of dominance for the Patriots thus far and little is left to be said. HC Bill Belichick has enjoyed tremendous success throughout his time in New England, but this squad appears to be the best he has assembled to date, a tall compliment. The Pats have been TD+ favorites in three of the six games they have entered thus far and the results speak volumes, defeating those opponents by an average of 23 points. Each and every over has been set at 41 points or greater, and all but one has been surpassed, averaging 38 points per game. The defense is sickening, the offense is superior, and special teams are outstanding.

On the flip side of the New England coins lies the Miami Dolphins, an atrocious compilation of lackluster talents that have yet to offer a single indication of ability. One might guess the numbers, 0-6 SU and 1-3-2 ATS, would offer the most revealing insight into the deep-rooted issues this team carries, yet lines remain low.

The last two matchups have offered the Fins as 4.5-point underdogs, resulting in horrific losses with no ability cover the spread. This “battle” with the Patriots may be one of the most intriguing spreads NFL handicap enthusiasts have ever seen, yet the temptation to side with the heavy favorite may be too much to ignore.

Keys to the Game

New England seldom doesn’t show up to play as Belichick comes up with game plans the players find interesting and exciting to execute. In obvious mismatches, the Patriots modus operandi is to come out either throwing for the opening quarter or pounding away with the running game. Both have worked to quickly discourage opponents. In the case of Miami, running might be the preferred method since the Fish are dreadful stopping opposing running backs. Cleo Lemon is a backup quarterback and gives no indication he is anything but. There is no breathing room here for Dolphins coach Cam Cameron, who looks bewildered.

Trends
- The Patriots are 9-2 ATS as a division away favorite.
- The Patriots are 65-44 ATS versus division opponents over the last 15 years.
- The Dolphins are 7-2 ATS when New England visits.
- The Dolphins are 9-1 ATS as underdogs of more than six points.

StatFox Pick – Dolphins plus points

NASCAR – Subway 500 – Martinsville Speedway (2:15 PM ET – ABC)

With the NASCAR season heading down the homestretch and the Chase becoming nothing more than a three-horse race, the Nextel Cup circuit heads back to Martinsville Speedway where the two front runners, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson, staged an epic head-to-head battle in April.

Sunday’s Subway 500 can only hope to live up to the drama of that race, incidentally won by Johnson. Even if that does happen, it will only work to separate the Chase field even further than it has already become. Here are the current standings with five races remaining in the season:

Place Driver Pts PtsBehind
1. Jeff Gordon 5880 Leader
2. Jimmie Johnson 5812 -68
3. Clint Bowyer 5802 -78
4. Tony Stewart 5682 -198
5. Carl Edwards 5640 -240
6. Kyle Busch 5600 -280
7. Kurt Busch 5565 -315
8. Kevin Harvick 5552 -328
9. Denny Hamlin 5531 -349
10. Jeff Burton 5514 -366
11. Martin Truex Jr. 5502 -378
12. Matt Kenseth 5438 -442

Handicapping of this week’s race starts with Hendrick Motorsports teammates Johnson and Gordon. They are the only active drivers, with multiple starts at Martinsville, to own an average finish under 10. Gordon leads all active drivers with seven Martinsville wins, while Johnson has three wins to go with seven Top 5’s in 11 career starts. The latter won both the spring race here and this race last October.

At this point, you can pick Gordon up at 5-1 odds, which would seem like a bargain. Johnson is the favorite at 4-1, according to Sportsbook.com. According to oddsmakers, others worthy of consideration are Hamlin at 7-1, and Stewart, at 8-1. Hamlin has struggled during the Chase, but did finish 3rd here in April. Kyle Busch, listed at 12-1, finished 4th.

Considering their current positions in the Chase standings, combined with their dominance at Martinsville, anything other than a win by Gordon or Johnson would be a surprise. Leave all your other driver wagers to matchups or group props. In that sense, some guys to keep an eye on might be non-Chasers Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Jamie McMurray, and even Ricky Rudd. All three have a decent history at Martinsville, and each spent a lot of time in the Top 10 last weekend.

With single file racing being prevalent, track position is CRITICAL. Therefore, qualifying takes on a great degree of importance. 56 of 116 past winners at Martinsville have started in the Top 4 and only one was outside of 24th! Tune in to ABC on Sunday for all of the action, as the green flag is scheduled to wave at about 2:15 PM ET.

NFL - Chicago at Philadelphia (4:15 PM ET – FOX)
Philadelphia’s 56-21 win a few weeks ago against the Lions was indicative of how well HC Andy Reid’s teams have played against the NFC North. Having been an assistant coached with Green Bay, Reid had a familiarity with the teams in the old “Black & Blue” division. This Sunday the Eagles host Chicago hoping to continue that trend.

Reid has translated his experience into a 16-5 ATS record overall, including 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS at home. The average score in those home wins has been 33.1-14.1. While it doesn’t figure to get that ugly vs. Chicago Sunday, Philly opened as nearly a touchdown favorite. The Eagles are but 2-3 SU & ATS in their first five games. Chicago comes off a home division loss to Minnesota in which it yielded 311 yards on the ground. At this point, only one NFC team is allowing more yards per play than the Bears.

Scan the field for teams to avoid as you approach the window at the book and the Chicago Bears may be the team of “choice.” A defense bloated with Pro-Bowl talent is struggling to keep points off the board while an offense as troubled in any in the NFL has more than surpassed the grave concerns put forth in preseason reviews. The rushing attack is nonexistent while the passing game has failed to solidify an ounce of consistency. A record of 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS through six weeks says it all, though fans would be happy to expound on the dismay for hours. With the failing support of a defense that led this team to wins, there is little reason for optimism despite the enhanced offense under QB Brian Griese.

Of course, handicap enthusiasts may get to window and decide the Philadelphia Eagles are the team to avoid. Much like Chicago, the inability to provide an offense worthy of respect has hampered all efforts to push forward and find wins (much less covers). Discount the 56-21 drumming at home versus Detroit (the lone cover of Philly’s season thus far) and you have a team averaging just 10 points per game. As a result, the UNDER has become one of the lone results of reliability for a team (again, much like Chicago) too reliant on defense for wins (1-5 O/U thus far).

Keys to the Game

Running back Cedric Benson needs to have somebody place a Bic lighter under his posterior. Benson has run hard when he feels like it, hole or not. He claims he wants to be the man and average 25 carries a game, yet shows little indication or desire to embrace responsibility.

This is not likely to improve against a stingy Philadelphia run defense. Spreading out top draft choice TE Greg Olson to force safety coverage gives the Bears more options. As Philly scrambles to get back in NFC East picture, the health of RB Brian Westbrook and TE L.J. Smith is tantamount. Without these two options in Donovan McNabb’s arsenal, the Eagles are more predictable which can only make Chicago more aggressive to attack McNabb in the pocket.

Trends
- The Bears are 35-18 ATS when they gain 4.5 to 5.0 total yards per play.
- The Bears are 6-7 ATS in a division sandwich game over the last decade.
- The Eagles are 1-5 ATS playing against Chicago.
- The Eagles are 4-8 ATS after facing an AFC squad.

StatFox Pick – Eagles minus the points

NFL - Pittsburgh at Denver (8:15 PM ET – NBC)

The Sunday night NBC game features a pair of teams that had the luxury of taking last week off, so both should be well rested coming into the contest. Pittsburgh is a 3 ½-point road favorite, a clear indication of how these teams have played this season.

For the Broncos, the bye couldn’t have come at a better time, as they stumbled into the open date on an 0-3 SU & ATS run. HC Mike Shanahan’s team has been one of the league’s best post-bye, converting seven of its L8 opportunities both SU & ATS. However, they have lost nine-straight games against the spread at home and are playing as more than a field goal underdog at Mile High for the first time since 1999. Pittsburgh has been dominant in the early going, winning four of five games SU & ATS while outscoring opponents by a 26.4-9.4 margin. Their last visit to Denver was the 2006 AFC title game, a 34-17 win.

With one minor blemish on the 2007 resume, the rewarding benefits provided by last week’s bye, and one of the most complete units in the NFL, the Steelers are riding high and ready to fight for greatness.

Through the first five weeks of the 2007 season, the Steelers have fought to join the short, but elite list of top teams in league, going 4-1 SU & ATS. Their wins have come in dominating fashion, sporting an average point margin of +17.0, a number bested only by the illustrious New England Patriots. The number that jumps to +23.0 on natural surfaces, strong food for thought this week.

The Denver Broncos have earned respect as a franchise apparently immune to the laws of parity that govern the NFL, enjoying a long string of competitive seasons that few teams have matched during the league’s history. However, 2007 is starting to resemble a season that may break those trends as the early returns have been anything but favorable. At 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS it shows the offense is struggling to enjoy the rewards talented commodities, but their 4-1 O/U record points to the true cause for concern. Defensive woes have put this season in jeopardy for the Broncos and this week offers little hope for change.

Keys to the Game

When your run defense is the worst in the NFL, seeing the Pittsburgh Steelers is about as comforting as Britney Spears being your babysitter. The Broncos front seven is in incredible disarray. The constant reshuffling, change of schemes with another defensive coordinator has created chaos.

With Pittsburgh lining it up and ramming down your throat, Denver has to commit a platoon to stop the run and keep fingers crossed for their talented corners hold up. The Broncos’ offensive woes rank among the worst in the NFL, scoring 15 points a game. The O-Line is not up to normal standards due to injury and QB Jay Cutler is playing like an inexperienced kid once he’s in scoring territory. Mike Shanahan needs K Jason Elam to line up at the 10-yard line not beyond as he so often has in 2007.

Trends
- The Steelers are 6-16-1 ATS as non-division away favorites.
- The Steelers are 17-8-1 ATS on the road off a win by 10 or more points.
- The Broncos are 16-6 ATS in home games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season.
- The Broncos are home underdogs in back-to-back games for the first time since 1999.

StatFox Pick – Broncos plus points



by Football