Sports Articles Football

Early Games

CFB - Tennessee at Alabama (3:30E – CBS)

As crazy as it sounds, after last week’s LSU loss, not a single SEC team remains unbeaten in conference play after at least four games. Two of the one-loss clubs holding out hope for a league title meet Saturday as Tennessee visits longtime rival Alabama.


The fact that this game is being played in Tuscaloosa actually could be an edge for the Volunteers, since in one of those rare SEC trends to keep an eye on, the road team is on an amazing 13-1 ATS run in the series. The Tide figure to be the home favorite at kickoff, and they are on runs of 2-12 ATS as home chalk and 0-7-1 ATS hosting league foes. Phil Fullmer’s club is 15-5 ATS in its L20 road SEC games.

It’s one of the quirkier rivalries not only in the SEC, but in all of college football. Tennessee and Alabama is one of the South’s biggest games that has brought together some of the best coaches and players in the history of the sport. The intensity is about to go to 212 degrees with Nick Saban back roaming the sidelines for Crimson Tide.

Saban is insightful and understands his team of so well.

"I have a message for everyone," Saban said. "When we play, don leave early. We
e going to make it interesting. We have guests; we have recruits (for home games). We want everyone to be entertained."

Alabama has seen diminishing returns from the running game, as freshmen Terry Grant has worn down. Glenn Coffee has been playing more at running back, but needs a little more expresso in his gitty-up.

Tennessee is still in contention in the SEC East and a win here sets up monster contest with South Carolina in Knoxville. Defensive coordinator John Chavous has worked feverishly to shore up a defense lacking speed. His method is to take away opposing team’s running game on early downs to have them in more predictable situations. If the front seven can regularly accomplish this, it can mask other deficient areas. Nothing deficient about the Vols offense with Erik Ainge in full command. The senior has expertly found the right receiver as they have become more familiar with each other. The passing game is averaging better then 260 yards a game. RB Larry Coker has been up and down, and needs help with room to run being more of a banger.

It almost is beyond normal comprehension as to why the home team would not do better against the spread. This wacky series brings out the best in the visiting team and only a person with too much cash would wager against this situation.

Prediction – Tennessee by 8

CFB - Michigan State at Ohio State (3:30E – ABC)

Ohio State is in the same position it was in ‘06, atop the national polls. The Buckeyes have the rest of the preseason Top 10 to thank, but it doesn’t take away from the fact that they are 7-0 and outscoring foes by a 35.7–6.6 PPG margin.

This week #1 OSU hosts a Michigan State team that they’ve beaten five-straight times, all by double-digits. Overall, HC Jim Tressel’s team is on an 18-5 ATS run in Big Ten play. It’s quite the opposite for the Spartans, who are just 5-15 ATS in their L20 games, taking into account Saturday’s 52-27 win vs. Indiana. OSU is on a 10-1 ATS run at home vs. teams scoring more than 34 PPG.

The autumn season is a very identifiable time of year. The leaves turn colors and drift lazily towards the ground on a daily basis; and after a fast start, Michigan State starts losing. Once again it appeared the Spartans licked the old problem of mental toughness with new coach Mark Dantonio. After competing with overrated Wisconsin and losing by just three points they came home and were defenseless in a loss to Northwestern before last week’s Indiana game. Making the trip to Columbus is not a place one can take abeyance when it comes to desire.
Word is spreading that this Ohio State team might be better than the one Florida ripped apart in the championship game. Anything associated with the Big Ten is hard to take seriously this year, especially considering the talent lost from the offense for the Buckeyes from last season.
Ohio State is getting props because this team is becoming eerily similar to the 2002 national championship club. That group was all about defense and completely dominated opponents. As Purdue offensive tackle Kirk Barton stated after playing Ohio State’s defense, "They
e sick," Barton said. "It pretty much ends speculation of who has the best defense in the country."
The offense started slow and improved as the season went along to effective group that made plays. Taking a look at the Buckeyes this is being replicated as you read this.
Key Trend – The visitor is 3-9 ATS, with the favorite having covered four straight.

Ohio State is better from talent standpoint and has definitive edge in knowing how to win. The Buckeyes have won and covered four in a row versus Spartans who once again are seeking identity. The only shot for Michigan State is if DE Jonal Saint-Dic is so disruptive he gets the Ohio State offense to cough up the ball.

The StatFox Power Ratings indicate Ohio State by 23.

CFB - USC at Notre Dame (3:30E – NBC)

Two years ago in South Bend, USC & Notre Dame staged one of the best games in recent college football lore, with the Trojans winning 34-31 as a 12-point road favorite. With the level at which both are playing now, the only thing this week’s game figures to share is a large pointspread.

USC is 5-1 but has lost three-straight ATS. In road games, HC Pete Carroll’s team is just 2-5 ATS in its L7. Notre Dame is 1-6 but has covered the spread in three-straight games. The Irish are 5-10 ATS at home under Charlie Weis. In the ’06 clash of these teams in L.A., both teams gained 404 yards of offense, but USC won 44-24.

With the exception of the 2005 classic, this non-conference clash has been as one-sided as Keith Olberman’s Countdown show. In four of the last five years, USC has outscored Notre Dame 176-61, covering the oddsmakers number by average of 15.7 points a game. This game may not look a lot different with the Irish last in the nation in total offense, meaning points will be scarce. Plus Pete Carroll understands the BCS game and knows wins and style points go hand in hand whenever possible.

Notre Dame has more flaws than the Ben Stiller movie Heatbreak Kid. Weis might be better served to have youngster Jimmy Claussen start than sit for a while and reenter with Evan Sharpley coming out of the bullpen. Claussen does not trust himself or his receivers. This causes him to check down for very short gains or throw the ball away.

The Trojans have not had many bad losses the last six years; however the one to Stanford left a mark. It has been awhile since the Men of Troy have had to show actual resolve halfway through a season. This is what lies ahead for talented team that might have read one too may press clippings.

John David Booty is more in the mold of former Cal QB Aaron Rodgers, than a Matt Leinart. Booty can deliver on time with crisp passes when the running game is working, but if you force him to throw and add pressure, he becomes far more ordinary, fractured finger or not.

Key Trend –USC is 8-3 ATS taking on the Irish.

This has been a crazy series, with each team having long runs of success back and forth. The Trojans are currently in one such period and should have no real problem with Notre Dame unless they are foolish enough to look ahead to Oregon. History could be made as favored USC has never beaten the Fighting Irish six-straight times.

Prediction – USC by 24

CFB - Florida at Kentucky (7:00 PM ET – ESPN2)

Florida and Kentucky, the teams in this week’s premiere SEC showdown, share one common trait. The last game for both was formerly top-ranked LSU. The results were different and have the teams going in opposite directions heading into their Saturday night showdown. The Gators are a seven-point road favorite.


The reason for the formerly descriptive is of course the Wildcats’ upset last week in triple-overtime. Now, Florida, coming off a bye week, looks to turn the tables and derail the SEC title hopes of the Wildcats, a team they’ve beaten 20-straight times. The average score in the L15 meetings has been 43-17. HC Urban Meyer’s teams are 12-2 ATS off a bye week, but at Florida, he is 0-8 ATS as road chalk. Kentucky & QB Andre Woodson are on a 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS run as an underdog.

After being saddled with two losses in a row for the first time since 2004, Urban Meyer will seek to avoid a third heading to Lexington. Florida wants another shot at LSU which would have to take place in conference championship contest.

"We can still make it to Atlanta and win the SEC championship. We have to still believe in each other and in the coaches and fight the rest of the season." said QB Tim Tebow.

Florida is loaded with talent; unfortunately inexperience has shown up in both losses. To make a stretch run Meyer will have to coach them up in a hurry. The offense is too dependent on Tebow to be awesome every game. While Tebow is far better than anticipated, football is a team sport and he needs help.

Kentucky will have its third challenging game against a SEC beast, after playing defensive stalwarts South Carolina and LSU. These are Sisyphean times for the Wildcats who were full of vigor early in the season. This program in unaccustomed to success on a higher level and it has shown the last couple of weeks. The frustration of playing teams truly better, yet not overbearing like in the past has Kentucky lacking poise when it needs it most. With a run of the mill defense, Rich Brooks team needs to play to its strength. Run the ball and have Andre Woodson control the pigskin; that leads to point production.

Key Trend – Kentucky has lost five consecutive games to Florida and covered the spread each time.

To understand what a Kentucky win would mean against Florida, take a trip in the time machine back to 1986, the last time they beat the Gators. The Wildcats are capable if they can muster the emotional edge and play with the poise that was lacking against South Carolina. The Gators are 3-13-1 ATS as road favorites the last 17 trips.

Prediction – Kentucky by 2


CFB - Michigan at Illinois (8:00 PM ET – ABC)

As bad as it got for Michigan at 0-2, and as much as Illinois was revered for its fast start, the Big Ten standings have a familiar ring at the top…Wolverines and Buckeyes. Those two remain the only unbeaten clubs in conference play, but Michigan will be put to the test Saturday in Champaign.

Lloyd Carr’s team has won four straight and is on a run of 12-3 ATS vs. conference foes. The Illini are 3-1 in league games after the disappointing 10-6 loss as Iowa. However, they are 2-0 as Big Ten home dogs so far and figure to play the role of pooch again here. The home team is 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in the L5 of the series.

Given all the troubles Michigan has had playing non-conference teams (save Notre Dame) the Wolverines are still on track to possibly make an appearance in the Rose Bowl as Big Ten champs. If anyone viewed any of the three games Michigan played not involving Big Ten teams, it seem unlikely they would be in a position of strength, as they have underachieved based on preseason forecasts. With spotty play on offense and a defense that is still grasping to play 60 minutes most games, Coach Lloyd Carr is pleased by his team having a solid turnover margin and converting nearly half the time on third downs.

"I think the most important statistic in football is turnover margin," Carr said. "We
e doing a better job at taking care of the football."

It has already been a remarkable year for Illinois as they work towards an improbable season. The national media has descended upon Champaign, singing the praises of Ron Zook, who has put the fight in Fighting Illini. What stands out about Illinois is the crushing ground attack led by junior RB Rashard Mendenhall.

Illini fans are wearing "Mendenhall 4 Heisman" T-shirts and he is on pace to surpass several school records dating back to the Red Grange days. The Illinis four receiver spread option keeps defenses honest, because they can overplay the run for fear QB Juice Williams will throw to an open receiver. When Williams throws he has one of the top freshmen in the country to throw to in Arrelious Benn.

Key Trend – The home team is 4-10 ATS in this Big Ten battle.

The line on this conflict will be real tight; if Michigan is favored they are 8-5 ATS as Big Ten road favorite. If Illinois is favored, it will be just the fifth time in the last five years they will be a home favorite. Where the Zookers could come up short is if Michigan comes out throwing with Chad Henne and its talented receivers, the Illini allow over 250 yards passing game.

StatFox Game Estimator indicates– Illinois by 4



by Football