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CFB Early Games

Wisconsin at Ohio State
Top-ranked Ohio State continues a difficult stretch of games when it hosts Wisconsin on Saturday. The Buckeyes remain undefeated after a convincing 37-17 win at Penn State. However, the Badgers have put together two big efforts in a row, yielding just six points, the fewest in a two-game span since the beginning of the ’05 season. They have also won the L3 series meetings in Columbus, and overall, the underdog has a 5-2 SU & 7-0 ATS mark in the L7 head-to-head meetings. HC Jim Tressel’s team has won 14 straight Big Ten games at home and is 11-3 ATS in that span. The last loss? In 2004, 24-13, hosting Wisconsin.

Clemson at Duke
In 2004, Duke upset Clemson in Durham, 16-13 in the season’s next-to-last game. The loss snapped the Tigers 4-game winning streak at the time, and Clemson was actually so fighting mad that they did just that, in the finale with South Carolina. While that story is only of course half true, since the Tigers and Gamecocks brawl was more a reflection of their deep hatred for one another, the upset by Duke did serve as a good reflection of how does it has been for the road team to win in this ACC series. Well, for ’07, Clemson makes its first trip back since to Durham, and upset minded Duke will be waiting. Don’t get fooled by the stats or how well Clemson is playing coming into this one. Sometimes other factors supercede.

Vanderbilt at Florida
Having already suffered three defeats, the 2007-08 BCS will be without defending champion Florida. The Gators most recent loss, last week vs. Georgia, was their third setback in the L4 games, the worst run of the 3-year Urban Meyer era. In their defense, all four games were against ranked opponents. At 5-3 SU & 4-3 ATS, they finds themselves in unfamiliar territory heading into Saturday’s game vs. Vanderbilt, and motivation level will play a big role in which team wins and/or covers the spread here. For the Commodores, avenging 16-straight defeats (4-1 ATS L5) in the series will be all the motivation needed.

CFB - Michigan at Michigan State (3:30 PM ET – ESPN)
The annual Big Ten battle for bragging rights in the state of Michigan ensues Saturday between the Wolverines and Spartans. The ‘07 contest is in East Lansing and matches teams on near opposite ends of the conference standings.


State is 1-4 in league play after blowing a 17-point lead at Iowa and needs a win here to avoid falling to .500. Michigan has won seven straight games and at 5-0, is and tied atop the Big Ten. The L5 games of this series in Ann Arbor were Wolverines’ wins of at least 8-points, while the L4 games in Spartan-land were all decided by a TD or less with the teams splitting SU & ATS.

For all the early season travails, Michigan is at least in position to make a run for the Rose Bowl, which seemed as likely in September as the movie “Gone Baby Gone” not having curse words. The exact availability of senior warriors Chad Henne and Mike Hart is still in question, just figure if it is possible, they will play. The Wolverines offensive numbers are nowhere near what were expected this year with the returning talent, but injuries and tons of upheaval have caused continuous change at many skill positions. After being waxed early by spread offenses, the Michigan defense has settled, conceding 50 fewer yards per game then what previous opponents have usually gained.

This is gut check time for Michigan State, who could earn a dandy bowl berth for the first time since 2003 with three straight victories. "We can determine our own future right now, and I think that weve played against everybody, and theres been nobody thats blown us out," coach Mark Dantonio said. "We can win every one of them, and by the same token, we can lose every one of them. We need to stay the course. If theres anything that we need to do, we need to continue to believe in each other and trust each other and stay the course. And we will do that." Cross state rival Michigan could well set the table for the Spartans.
Key Trend – Whoever wins outright, has covered 12 of 14 games played in battle of the Great Lakes state.

More at stake for Lloyd Carr’s club with BCS berth still hovering. The visitor is 5-9 ATS and nothing would make Spartans fan happier then ruining Michigan’s chance at success.

Prediction – Michigan State by 3

CFB - LSU at Alabama (5:00 PM ET - CBS)
LSU and Alabama meet Saturday in what figures to be for the West Division’s spot in the SEC title game. Both teams are 4-1 in league play and the winner grabs the outright lead.


The game is in Tuscaloosa, but since the home team in this rivalry is just 5-10 SU & 2-12 ATS recently, that may mean more to LSU. Plus, ‘Bama is just 1-3 ATS at home in ’07, & 4-14 ATS the L3 years. LSU has lost its last five games ATS since opening 3-0, but has won four in a row and six of L7 in this series. This will be Nick Saban’s first game against his former Tigers’ team, and both teams will be well rested coming off bye weeks.

A rivalry as intense as this would be dominated by the home team, not the opposite. As it turns out though, this is another example of where familiarity and the motivation of spoiling the host’s party outweighs any kind of home field edge. This year’s game is in Alabama, and considering the Tide are just 1-3 ATS at home, LSU could be the team to follow again.

For LSU this will not be a companionable moment when visiting Tuscaloosa. The stakes are as high as ever, with the Tigers in the hunt for SEC title and possible trip to BCS championship game. When Nick Saban left LSU for the Miami Dolphins following the 2004 season, it was easy for most LSU fans to understand his desire to coach at the next level and do it for a lot more money. When he returned to rival Alabama after just two seasons and pointed out he recruited most of the players that had just won the Sugar Bowl against Notre Dame, they were not as understanding.

Despite how some most feel about Saban as traitor, others hold him dearly since he delivered national championship during his tenure. For some reason a faction of LSU fans have not embraced Les Miles who couldn’t have done better job during Hurricane Katrina season and is bringing in extremely talented football players to Baton Rouge. Saban’s Crimson Tide is off flogging of Tennessee and like LSU, has had two weeks to prepare. When John Parker Wilson is on target, there might not be a slipperier and more dangerous receiver in the country than JD Hall, the schools all-time leader in both career receptions and receiving yards.

Key Trend – The visiting team is 11-3-1 ATS in this always important SEC contest.

The winner assumes control of the SEC West and needs to win out to play in Atlanta. Alabama will need possibly even better effort then Tennessee game to beat LSU. With backing of home crowd, Tide will be pumped, unfortunately they are 4-15-1 ATS in November home games. If Saban was thinking, he’d have Miles checked for lucky rabbit’s foot.

Prediction – LSU by 10

CFB - Arizona State at Oregon (6:30 PM ET – ESPN)
Undefeated Arizona State kept the critics quiet for at least another week by beating Cal. The road from here on out could not be any more difficult however, starting this week at Oregon.

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The Sun Devils have made a habit of taking close halftime scores, sometime deficits, and busting the games open in the second half. They are 6-2 ATS, including 4-1 in Pac 10 play. The Ducks are 7-1, both SU & ATS and come off a huge 24-17 defeat of USC. Overall, they’re scoring 43.7 PPG, the country’s 3rd highest total, and for good reason are favored. However, ASU can point to the fact that the dog 7-1 ATS run in this series.

This is a Pac-10 dandy with two squads off big home games, looking to further enhance position in conference standings. Ducks coach Mike Bellotti says his team has been great in the focus department, concentrating on the business at hand and he sees this week as being no different. He says his players have "a very narrow, very short-term focus on this game, this opponent and what we need to do." Dennis Dixon’s phenomenal season continues and RB Jonathan Stewart is a workhorse that just keeps pounding out yards on a regular basis.

After a bevy of home games, Arizona State takes their act on the road for the first of two. The Sun Devils cruised through the first half of the season, buying completely into Dennis Erickson style of play. "I think it is a little bit of a validation and excitement. Guys are really starting to realize how much hard work pays off," ASU quarterback Rudy Carpenter said. "Everyone is feeling good about it. Sometimes it can be a burden because now we are starting to realize that every game we are really playing for the BCS game, Rose Bowl…”. TB Keegan Herring is back in the limelight with Rudy Torian out with foot injury. Herring was a freshman sensation, but lost out to Torian who was more physical runner.

Key Trend – Oregon is 4-8 ATS against the Sun Devils.

The Ducks can go full out with bye week approaching and are 14-6 ATS in November games in Eugene. Conversely, ASU is 7-17 ATS this month.

Prediction – Oregon by 7

CFB - Florida State at Boston College (8:00 PM ET – ABC)
After escaping with a late 4th quarter magic act at Virginia Tech last Thursday, unbeaten Boston College faces another challenge in its quest for an ACC and/or national title.

The Eagles were held scoreless by the Hokies for almost 58 minutes but came up with 14 points thereafter to win 14-10. This game vs. Florida State will be B.C.’s first home contest in nearly a month, and they come in on a run of 8-2-1 ATS at home. The Seminoles (5-3 SU & 3-5 ATS), have lost three straight ACC road games. In last year’s contest, Boston College won 24-19 on the road, the second straight season the visitor won outright & ATS.

This is Boston College’s first home game in a month and they will be excited be play before the Chestnut Hill crowd. As the season has worn on, opposing teams have been jamming Eagles receivers more at the line of scrimmage, throwing off the timing of the B.C. passing game. This has led to RB Andre Callender seeing his workload increase and so has his contributions. Callender’s name is called more in draws and screens and is dependable dump-off receiver when initial options are taken away in passing game.

As a few thought Florida State would be generally improved this season, the schedule also figured to be a hindrance with only five home games and the vast majority of the tougher opponents on the road. This picture has played out pretty much as expected and the Seminoles have three remaining road games, all against ranked teams. The old story about if you have two quarterbacks that are so close it’s impossible to pick, thus you don’t have any has held true, as neither Drew Weatherford nor Xavier Lee shows any steady performance to be counted on regularly.

Key Trend – Florida State is 5-16 ATS as conference road underdog.

Bobby Bowden’s Seminoles had won the first three meetings between these universities before falling last season. This is Boston College’s only home game sandwiched around four road games. The Eagles are 0-4-1 ATS off two straight road trips.

Prediction – Boston College by 8

CFB - Oregon State at USC (8:00 PM ET – ABC/ESPN)
For the first time since 2001, the BCS will be without USC, who suffered its second loss of ’07 last week at Oregon. Not only will the Trojans not win the Pac 10, but the goal now might be at best a Holiday Bowl bid, and for that to happen they may need to win out in four difficult games. Here USC will host an Oregon State team that is much improved from earlier in the season.

The Beavers have won three in a row, both SU & ATS, and have proven to be a reliable bet on the Pac 10 road, going 9-4 ATS in L13. USC owns a 9-2 ATS at home vs. OSU, but the last two games were decided by just 10 points combined.

When the calendar turns to November it is “go time” for the USC football program. During Pete Carroll’s tenure at Southern Cal, the Trojans have lost exactly one game in six seasons this month. They have not lost at home and are 20-6 ATS in last 26 outings. USC is getting healthier each week and coach Carroll senses a change. “I like the way we
e feeling more push from the guys like weve had in the past. ... I think we
e ready to turn that corner. I look forward to this challenge." The Trojans are also in payback mode after losing at Oregon State 33-31 as 10-point favorites.

Oregon State has frequently played there best football also in November with 19-9 straight up record, covering 66.6 percent of the time. The Beavers will need steady effort from QB Sean Canfield who has to take care of the ball and make sound decisions. RB Yvenson Bernard will have to be patient against highly ranked Trojans run defense. Oregon State can match USC on run defense and could force them to throw. With the cardinal and gold receivers nothing special, Oregon State has a chance to turn this into a defensive tussle.

Key Trend – USC is 9-2 at L.A. Memorial Coliseum when playing Oregon State.

Aside from last year’s rare upset the Beavers have nit been eager to take on Southern Cal with 6-18-1 ATS mark. Dating back 38 years OSU is 2-30 against the Men of Troy.

Prediction – USC by 17



by Football